SB Nation World Cup World Cup 2010 -- Group F
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New Zealand has a chance to write one of the best stories in World Cup history if they can get a result against Paraguay and, possibly with some help, earn a place in the knockout stage. However, don't expect Paraguay's Gerardo Martino to overlook the lessons Italy and Slovakia learned the hard way.
Paraguay continues to lead Group F, having gone into halftime drawn 0-0 with New Zealand, who would be out of the tournament if results hold despite going undefeated.
New Zealand is giving the Paraguayan the same troubles they posed Slovakia and Italy, playing the group leaders even through the first 45. The All Whites have only have 31 percent of the possession but have limited their opponents to one shot on goal.
That shot came from Nelson Valdez in the 35th minute from around the arc, saved by Mark Paston.
Gerardo Martino has again gone with his 4-3-3 personnel, though Nelson Valdez is playing wide left, with the set-up masking as a 4-4-2 for much of the half.
New Zealand, expected to be one of the tournament doormats, has proven themselves with draws against Slovakia and Italy, and while most purported the Italy result as some once-in-a-lifetime miracle, that covers belies the fact that New Zealand has shown itself a capable and dangerous team.
Expect Gerardo Martino to have taken notice. The Paraguay coach is having a great tournament, and where he has to this point pushed all the right buttons in getting Paraguay to the top of Group F, it is unlikely that Martino will let his team’s chances to top the group fade away by making the same mistakes as television punditry.
Paraguay, Going Forward: Gerardo Martino switched from a 4-4-2 to a 4-3-3 for the Slovakia match, a move that worked wonders as the pressure exerted on the Slovakia back line exposed an indecisive defense. Now going against New Zealand’s 3-4-3, it’s unclear whether Martino will stay with the three man attack or switch back to a four man midfield.
Tactical advantages aside, there are personnel reasons why Martino could stay with the formation. Paraguay has a ridiculous amount of striking talent. The three players likely to start against New Zealand - Lucas Barrios, Nelson Valdez and Roque Santa Cruz - keep the leading scorer in Portugal, Oscar Cardozo, off the pitch. The 4-3-3 allows Martino to get more of his best players on the pitch at the same time.
The drawback to staying with the 4-3-3: Paraguay may be outnumbered and constricted before they get into the final third. Against an hard-working New Zealand team who have done a good job of maintaining their formation’s shape, having a three man midfield could make things more difficult for Paraguay than need be.
New Zealand, Going Forward: The All Whites will rely exclusively on counter attacks and set pieces. Being compacted so deep (and in such numbers) in their third while defending, they don’t have the set-up or approach to build-up goals.
That is not to say that the Kiwis are not dangerous. As both Slovakia and Italy learned, New Zealand is capable of getting a goal on the end of a cross, and while Paraguay has shown their own proficiency in executing a set-piece, Justo Villar gifted Italy their goal when he misread a corner kick. A similar error could see New Zealand into the knockout stage.
Above all, New Zealand is going to have to be opportunistic. They know they don’t have the same technical skill as their opponents, but as their strong defending and their relentless work has shown, the Kiwis have a way of mitigating their disadvantages.
How The Match Turns: Not being familiar with the All Whites, it’s natural for Paraguay to underestimate them - from naivete more than patronization. At some point in this match, Paraguay will wake-up and start treating New Zealand with the respect they deserve. The All Whites will wish they hadn’t, as Paraguay will show themselves the slightly better team.
World Cup 2010, Paraguay Vs. New Zealand: Draw Wins Group F For Paraguay, Sends Kiwi Home Undefeated
New Zealand was picked by many to lose their matches in South Africa. Instead, the All Whites leave South Africa without losing, their 0-0 draw with Paraguay leaving them on three points and in Group F’s third place.
Paraguay’s point means they win Group F and await the second place finisher from Group E Monday in the Round of 16.
The match was one controlled by an unambitious Paraguay team, who limited the All Whites to no shots but recorded only four of their own. The group winners held 66 percent of possession and showed some desire at match’s end, when shots from Lucas Barrios and Roque Santa Cruz attempted to give the Paraguayans a late goal.
However, with Slovakia ahead for most of their match against Italy, Paraguay knew one point would win them Group F. At times, Paraguay seemed content to play other the match, showing patience with the ball deep in the New Zealand third.
The result means Paraguay moves into the knockout stage for the fourth consecutive finals, where they will likely face either Japan or Denmark.
Jun 24 12:22p by Richard Farley - 0 comments