Updated throughout the day with quick takes from staff.
At the core of the drive for college conferences to expand to 16 teams (or, in the case of the most absurd Pac-10 / Big 12 rumors, as many as 22) is the idea that the megaconferences that emerge will make enough money to serve caviar at presidents' meetings and build new conference headquarters made entirely of 24-carat gold.
Eh, maybe not, according to CNBC -- a channel that kind of specializes in those sorts of things.
For example, reporter Darren Rovell says, any Big Ten invitee has to be able to bring along $20 million a year just for the league to break even.
How many teams can do that? Notre Dame. Maybe Nebraska. Rutgers, if you think that gets you the New York and Philly market. I personally don't think it does.
The Pac-10 is in the same boat. What would Texas Tech add that Texas couldn't? Is Oklahoma State worth as much as Oklahoma? ...
"It doesn't make sense to add teams that don't have incremental revenue opportunities," said former CBS Sports president Neal Pilson, now a TV consultant.
Pilson's other concern -- being invited to Washington for a "frank and constructive" conversation with members of Congress -- isn't likely to be a deterrent for officials whose conferences are often more popular in their home districts than local representatives and senators.
But not making money -- that could stop things, because that's the entire reason that college leagues are considering expansion in the first place. (That, and the Big Ten's endless delusion that Notre Dame really wants to be part of the Big Ten and just doesn't realize it yet.)
So hold back on those predictions of IMMINENT, WORLD-ALTERING CHANGES TO COLLEGE FOOTBALL. If the money's not there, we might yet end up just shuffling a few teams around. That is, if conference commissioners stop and think before continuing the kind of one-upsmanship that they all might regret in a year or two.
(HT: Dr. Saturday)
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CNBC???
Are they still around? I thought they merged with BRAVO.
by bayonnefran on Jun 9, 2010 11:21 AM EDT reply actions
Why Texas Tech is easy ...
…. Texas will require Texas Tech be seen after, and Texas is worth two schools. If Texas offered to go to the Pac-16, they’d take Texas Tech as part of the cost. The Big Ten would love to have Texas, but probably could not get all University Presidents to agree to Texas Tech, so Texas goes West instead of East.
Nebraska is big time college football for at least four states and parts of Colorado, and while they are small markets, they add up. Even though Mizzou is in two big markets, Nebraska is a better ratings draw.
The Big Ten will take Mizzou if it rounds out the conference, but are going to hold off and wait and see whether the ACC gets fractured putting the Terps and the Baltimore and DC television markets in play. And after all, a decade ago 12 was supposed to be a nice round number for a two division conference.
However, the ACC is likely to not fall apart as quickly as the Bix XII with its forced marriage of the old Big Eight and SWC, and the Big Ten can afford to wait and see what the SEC is going to do. If the SEC moves to 16, it will certainly leave schools that the Big Ten would like in the position of looking for a home.
In Football terms, Nebraska gives the Big Ten a championship game, and one more week of competitive play for improving prospects in the BCS, In TV-network with football conference attached terms, Nebraska gives the Big Ten Nebraska, the Dakotas, Wyoming and eastern Colorado and a nationwide fanbase easily above existing Big Ten average … and a championship game.
By the way, CNBC is the network that missed the fact that the economy was heading over a cliff in 2008. Its not like they are great sources for forward looking thinking.
by BruceMcF on Jun 13, 2010 6:56 PM EDT reply actions
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