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- almost 3 years ago
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World Cup 2010, Spain Vs. Germany: Can Spain Counter The German Attack?
Germany’s 4-2-3-1 formation has been the tournament darling that Chile was supposed to be, but it’s a set-up that they also used in Euro 2008; specifically, in the tournament final against Spain. Looking back at that team, you see that’s where the comparisons end, as a tweaks in the team's personnel have turned the Nationalmannschaft from a prodding squad that spent most of that final tempting yellow cards into a dynamic team capable of scoring within seconds of gaining possession.
That trait will be particularly valuable against Spain, a squad from whom few opponents see little of the ball. Against England and Argentina, Germany showed an ability (if not willingness) to play without the ball, maintaining their composure in defense while waiting for opportunities to counter. That counter attack was responsible for five second half goals against England and Argentina and could also be responsible for getting Germany to the World Cup finals.
Spain’s worst efforts over the last two years have come when they were exposed on the counter attack. Gelson Fernandes’s goal in the first match of this tournament, Clint Dempsey’s goal in the Confederations Cup - it’s a short list, but it’s also two of the three goals scored in Spain’s losses, both coming an classic (if chaotic) counters. While two instances certainly do not a rule make, these observations combined with questions regarding player match-ups makes the question germane: Can Spain stop a German counter attack?
To do so, they will have to contain Mesut Özil, the key addition for Germany between 2008 and now. While Germany was playing 4-2-3-1 in Vienna, they did not have a fast, skilled, dynamic presence in the middle of the three that’s required to effectively play this system. The Dutch have it in Wesley Sneijder and to the extent that del Bosque sometimes plays a 4-2-3-1, the Spanish have it in Xavi Hernández. Now, Germany has it in Özil, and to a greater extent than the Dutch or Spaniards, they’ve had wingers playing they system perfectly.
That changes today with the suspension of Thomas Müller. The German right wing has been amongst Germany’s two or three best players this tournament, but having picked up a yellow card against Argentina, the 20-year-old will miss today’s match with an accumulation suspension. Opposite Lukas Podolski's left wing, Joachim Löw will start Piotr Trochowski, a player being selected as much for his ability to get backward as forward. Against a Spanish team with a tendency to lean left, his inclusion on the right makes more tactical sense than starting Toni Kroos. However, the choice comes with a sacrifice.
With Müller in the team, Germany would have had a commanding advantage over Spain’s deep central midfield: Xabi Alonso and Sergio Busquets, two midfielders masquerading as ball-winners. Where Spain would need a Marcos Senna-type presence to slow down an attack like the Germans, they instead have question marks. Whether the Germans can exploit those question marks without Müller remains to be seen. Özil, while a revelation in this tournament, has shown signs of wearing down, while Podolski has been good but not Müller’s equal. The versatility Müller offers - being able to play more centrally or along the line and allow Miroslav Klose to go wide - will inhibit Löw’s ability to target specific weaknesses. Whether Trochowski can replace all of those traits is doubtful.
Despite this diminished capacity, the Germans can still exploit Alonso and Busquets. Özil will be able to turn into a counter without having to worry about a true destoyer, allowing Germany to build the same momentum into attack that we saw tear-open England and Argentina. While they won’t have their full array of attacking options available to exploit Spain, they will have two, proven, major tournament goal scorers: Klose and Podolski.
Spain’s best defense may end up being a good offense. The Germans can’t score if you don’t give them the ball.
- almost 3 years ago
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World Cup 2010, Spain Vs. Germany: How La Roja Attacks Die Nationalmannschaft
Conventional wisdom holds the German weakness in defense is in the middle, with a central pairing of Per Mertesacker and Arne Friedrich. Mertesacker presides over a Werder Bremen defense that is notoriously sketchy, while Friedrich has made his name as a fullback. As a pair they’ve seen very little time together, which may partially explain the nature the two goals Germany’s allowed in the tournament (Milan Jovanovich’s for Serbia and Matthew Upson’s for England). Then again, it’s only two goals in five matches, so if there is a weakness at the back, something must be augmenting (possibly protecting) them.
That something is Bastian Schweinsteiger and Sami Khedira, Germany’s two in their 4-2-3-1 - the pair that have kept Mertesacker and Friedrich in their tactically-created bubble. Against a Spain team with creative, middle-of-the-pitch players like Xavi Hernández and Andrés Iniesta, that protection becomes even more valuable and forces Spain to consider how they will get around them. At a minimum, Schweinsteiger and Khedira will crowd the area around the arc.
This is where Vincente del Bosque’s probable inclusion of Pedro Rodríguez comes into play. With Fernando Torres’s ineffectiveness taking the apparently unfit striker out of the team, del Bosque looks set to move Pedro in, presumably to the left, and David Villa back to the middle. This will take Spain’s best player - their only consistent goal scoring threat - and move him to the most crowded area of the pitch, away from the only position where he’s had success in this tournament. And if you’re saying that the semifinal is a less-than-optimal time to experiment with this solution, you should have learned spanish and emailed Spain’s federation two days ago. A change like this has been coming.
But this particularly change is not the only option. Other solutions rumored included striker Fernando Llorente and attacking midfielder Cesc Fàbregas, the latter seemingly the popular choice. While Cesc is undoubtedly the most talented player del Bousque has on his bench, his inclusion carries the same issues as Pedro’s. If you swap Cesc in for Torres, Iniesta has to move to a more left-leaning role, and Villa has to come back in to be the penalty-area presence. At that point, it’s debatable whether Fàbregas’s inclusion is better than Pedro’s (depends a lot on whether you think Iniesta is better in the middle or on the left).
Llorente, however, gave del Bosque a chance to address the problems of the existing set-up without undermining the success they’ve had with Villa. He would be a like-for-like swap with Torres, enable Villa to maintain the success he's had cutting-in from the left. Llorente is also the kind of hard-working, physical presence that can be effective amidst the crowd, an effectiveness we saw from Upson and Nicola Zigic (who set-up the Jovanovic goal). He also offers Spain an option should the need to go around the German middle, being a forward that can be targeted with crosses. For all of David Villa’s virtues, he is none of these things.
There are two pieces of good news for Spain. First, they have the talent to defy any kind of tactical disadvantage. You can play like Portugal, pack all but one or two players deep, and still see a string of intricate passes undo your plan. Second, Spain keeps so much of the ball and limits their opponents opportunities to such an extent that if del Bosque sees his tactics aren’t working, the score may still be 0-0 when he chooses to adjust.
All this tactical talk is well and good, but as even the most tactically astute analysts insist on noting, tactics are just one of many parts of a match, and while they’re often underrated by most covering the game, they are frequently rendered irrelevant. Sometimes, the best players just win, and today, Spain has that advantage. Spain’s players still represent one of the greatest collections of talent we’ve ever seen. Should they choose to assert themselves, there may be little a benevolent del Bosque could do to derail them.
