Premier League 2010-11 Preview: Newcastle United, Rebuilding A Shattered Club

The relegation of Newcastle United is one of the more remarkable things I've seen in English football, a story ultimately under-sold after eight months preparing for the day they went down.  With that lead time, we never had that singular shocking moment- a "what just happened" reaction. 

As I researched this preview, that moment finally came, two years after Newcastle's relegation.  That's when I finished looking through the 2008-09 lineups and was reminding of all the players the Newcastle United had at its disposal.

Shay Given started in goal.  At the back, Fabricio Coloccini and Sebastien Bassong were in the middle, with Jose Enrique, Habib Beye, Steven Taylor, and (at times) Charles N'Zogbia or Geremi rounding out the defense.  The midfield had Nicky Butt and Damien Duff, the World Cup's own Jonas Gutierrez along with Danny Guthrie.  In attack, there was Michael Owen and Obafemi Martins.  Maybe the EPL was a lot tougher two years ago, because that team would have easily survived last season.

Newcastle should have easily survived in May 2008, too, but (remarkably) one man derailed their entire season.  At the time, Kevin Keegan was seen as a martyr - a man laying prostrate over the fading ideal of Manager, walking away from a position in protest rather than be told who will and will not be signed for his team.  While sensational stories about purchasing players based on YouTube videos eventually surfaced, the upshot remains the same: Keegan walked away from club and squad, the ripple effect shooting through management and supporters, helping to derail the season.  Newcastle had a number of opportunities throughout the year to stop a chain reaction, but Kevin Keegan started the process.  Does anybody doubt Newcastle would have survived had Keegan stayed?  Or slammed fewer doors as he left St. James' Park?

The relegation highlighted the vulnerability of Newcastle.  If one man can have such a deleterious effect on your club, you're too weak to weather the storms of the Premier League.  As such, the problems went far beyond Keegan.  Some time after Mike Ashley took over the club, Newcastle became the Premiership's china doll.  Keegan merely threw down and broke something which would have shattered eventually.

During their year at the second level, Newcastle shed the secondhand stars-culture that contributed to that vulnerability.  Owen, Martins and Mark Viduka left. Duff was sold, as was Bassong. By that time, Given had already left.  In their stead a squad of good-if-unremarkable players remained, leading many to speculate Newcastle's time in the Championship would be more than a one-year rebuild.

They were wrong.  Newcastle dropped only one of their first 11 league matches, and after back-to-back loses in the middle of October, the Toon only lost one match the rest of the season.  In his first full season for Newcastle, Kevin Nolan scored 17 goals, winning the Championship's Player of the Year honor.  Andy Carroll stepped into the void created by Owen and Martins' departures and matched Nolan's goal total.  Steve Harper was solid in goal, Fabricio Coloccini and Jonas Gutierrez stayed with the team through promotion.  Newcastle stabilized.

They may not have as much talent as they did two years ago, but having to fight their way back into England's first division, Newcastle appears to have developed a better backbone.  If the Magpies get relegated this year, it's not going to be because one man broke them.

The Cast

Major Comings: This is perfect. After I spent the whole exposition talking about the change in Newcastle's approach, I get to break it to you: The Magpies signed Notts County's own Sol Campbell.  Of greater significance, 20-year-old Dan Gosling's been brought-in from Everton, with £4 million going back to the Toffees because of Gosling's age.

Significant Goings: Peter Lovenkrands moved back to Viking.  Marlon Harewood's linked-up with Blackpool, but most significantly, Nicky Butt's ended a 14-year career, having made 437 appearances between Newcastle, Manchester United and Birmingham City.  The midfielder, capped 39 times by England, leaves having won six Premier League titles, three FA Cups and one UEFA Champions League, all with Manchester United.

Still There:  In addition to those mentioned above, Jose Enrique, Danny Guthrie, Danny Simpson, and Alan Smith.

Prognosis

Why: The Toon will struggle for goals.  Even after adjusting for league strength, Kevin Nolan and Andy Carroll should regress.  Newcastle's also lost Lovenkrands and the goals they got from Harewood.  In defense, Magpies have enough in Coloccini, Enrique, Campbell, Taylor and Simpson (in front of Harper) to make matches difficult for the best opponents and prevent their easiest opposition from stealing too many points.

Best Case Scenario:  Andy Carroll keeps scoring, the defending is actually league average, and the bottom of the EPL table remains as bad as last year.  Newcastle easily climbs into the upper-half and challenges for Europe.

Nightmare: If Newcastle got relegated with this team plus Given, Duff, Bassong, N'Zgobia, Owen, and Martins, whose to say that will stay up without them?

Most Likely: Those players may be gone, but this is a better team. It's too bad that Newcastle couldn't figure it out before going down to the Championship, but they come back stabilized and better prepared to compete.  Newcastle stays up with room to spare.