Tottenham Hotspur qualified for Champions League for the first time last year, but with expected improvement from Manchester City, Liverpool and Everton, Spurs' place amongst the top four is not assured. SB Nation Soccer editor Richard Farley looks at how Tottenham can return to Champions League.
Aug 13, 2010 - While English football fans spent April and May ruminating on reasons why Tottenham Hotspur would not finish fourth, one refrain was rarely heard: "They don't have the players." Thanks to a year-and-a-half of Harry Redknapp's spending, Spurs have built a team whose first team talent rivals that of the Premier League's other contenders. Spurs' nine players at the World Cup was outpaced by only Chelsea (12), Liverpool (12) and Arsenal (11), but adding Tottenham's Croatian contingent (Luka Modric, Niko Kranjcar, Vedran Corluka) and Roman Pavlyuchenko, you at least have a case for Spurs' talent. Based on personnel, fourth place may have been their level.
That's not to say Spurs will stay at the Champions League (top four) level. As the top eight of the Premier League continues to improve, even a team with Spurs' talent risks being passed. Manchester City has spent while Liverpool and Everton should be expected to rebound. For a Spurs team that has failed to reinforce at any position, Redknapp will need last year's personnel to improve on their performance in order to keep up.
Redknapp will also needs to manage better. Though he was named Barclays Manager of the Season for guiding Spurs into the top four, Redknapp persisted with a number of curious lineup choices. Tom Huddlestone made more starts than any other Spur, part of a pairing with Wilson Palacios that kept Luka Modric wide left. When all three of those players were available, one of Benout Assou-Ekotto and Gareth Bale was squeezed out. Roman Pavluchenko rarely featured in the first half of the season, though he may be Spurs' most talented forward. If Spurs are to improve in an area in order to keep pace in the race for fourth, the manager's lineup choices are the place to start.
If Redknapp can get more out of his players, Spurs can stay top four. Our simulation, in which Tottenham had the fourth-best finish, did not assume Redknapp will change. The result is a placing practically identical to Liverpool's and Manchester City's.
Small decisions - like whether Tom Huddlestone gets another 33 starts - could distinguish the Champions League qualifier from Europa League participants.
The Cast
Major Comings: Sandro, a 21-year-old Brazilian midfielder from Internacional, will join Tottenham at the end of the month (after Copa Libertadores). He is unlikely to make a meaningful impact this season, as any time he gets will come at the expense of players who are (at worst) as good.
Significant Goings: None.
Still There: Jermain Defoe and Luka Modric are still the keys to the attack. Peter Crouch and Roman Pavlyuchenko will partner Defoe. Tom Huddlestone and Wilson Palacios will patrol the middle. Aaron Lennon with be on the right. Vedran Corluka is at right back with a combination of Ledley King, Michael Dawson and Sebastien Bassong in the middle. Benoit Assou-Ekotto is at left back. Sprinkle in Gareth Bale and Niko Kranjcar depending on match-ups. Add Gomes in net. All world class players. All back for Spurs.
Prognosis
| Rk | Club | Avg | W | D | L | GF | GA | 1st | Top 4 | Top 7 | Relegated | Best | Worst | Range* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tottenham Hotspur | 5.3 | 19.5 | 7.4 | 11.1 | 68.4 | 41.9 | 1.4% | 36.0% | 89.5% | 0.0% | 1 | 17 | 2-9 |
Why: Though the program picks Tottenham in fourth place, there is little that separated their results from Liverpool's and Manchester City's. If that sounds a lot like 2009-10, there's a reason. At least, from Tottenham's point of view there's a reason. There are no major additions who will see significant playing time. Nobody left. For every player who projects for mild improvement, there's another who may not be as healthy or might take a step back. Spurs' movement in the table is likely tied to how much Liverpool and Manchester City improve and how set Harry Redknapp is in his ways.
Best Case Scenario: Redknapp makes a few tweaks at the same time the big league's big three take a small step back. Arsenal's defense doesn't work. Chelsea continues aging. Manchester United doesn't find goals to replace Rooney's regression. At the same time, Pavlyuchenko wins the striker's job and runs with it. Redknapp moves playing time away from Huddlestone. Aaron Lennon remains healthy, and Tottenham becomes a title contender.
Nightmare: Aston Villa, Everton, Liverpool, and Manchester City pass Spurs when 2009-10 proves to be a high point. Ledley King plays fewer matches, Michael Dawson doesn't replicate his performance, and Gomes becomes the Gomes of 2008-09. Tottenham finishes mid-table.
Most Likely: Spurs are in another tight battle for Champions League. Where they won the last year's fight by hitting their stride near the finish line, they will need to have similarly great timing this May to claim another Champions League spot.
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