Roberto Martínez looks to move Wigan clear of a relegation battle in his second season as Latics' manager. SB Nation Soccer editor Richard Farley assess Wigan's chances of survival.
Aug 13, 2010 - When Steve Bruce left Wigan for Sunderland before last season, owner Dave Whelan and staff made the curious decision to gamble on a replacement. While Roberto Martínez was the most sought after manager in the Championship, he was also a drastic change in style from Bruce. Bruce is a bit of a pragmatist, while Martínez is a Spanish idealist Had Wigan elected to bring in an Alan Curbishley or somebody similarly pragmatic, they could have hedged their bets against relegation. But Martínez's connection to Wigan, having served there as a player, made him the logical if dangerous choice.
Martínez switched Wigan to a 4-3-3, a shockingly ambitious formation for a squad whose personnel fit a very English approach to the game. At the beginning of the 2008-09 campaign, Wigan was playing 4-4-2 with Amr Zaki and Mr. English Football, Emile Heskey starting up-top. Under Martínez, Hugo Rodallega was starting between Charles N'Zogbia and Jason Koumas, a combination that produced a shock win at Villa Park to open the season.
Martínez would also get wins against Arsenal and Chelsea, surprisingly good results for a team that would battle relegation. The Latics would ultimately finish 16th, surviving despite having the Premier League's worst goal difference. Still, in the performances Martínez was able to get out of the likes of Rodallega, N'Zogbia, Maynor Figueroa and Mohamed Diame, there were signs better things may be in store for the Latics. Having another summer to tailor his roster, Martínez should be better positioned to spring more upsets.
But the -42 goal difference hints Wigan is starting from a bad place. While goal difference can be used too liberally, on a macro-scale it tells us Wigan wasn't scoring enough goals, wasn't preventing enough goals, and if those numbers can't be turned around, they're unlikely to again avoid relegation.
The Cast
Major Comings: Martínez has brought in two major acquisitions from South America. Antolin Alcaraz has been bought to solidify the back line while Estudiantes' striker Mauro Boselli, leading scorer in last year's Copa Libertadores, cost a club record £5.8 million. Ronnie Stam, a Dutch defender, has also been added, giving Latics supporters hope that their greatest deficiency is being addressed.
Significant Goings: Titus Bramble was allowed to leave for Sunderland, while former caption Mario Melchiot is now playing in Qatar. Paul Scharner has left the club, and Jason Koumas has been loaned to Cardiff City.
Still There: Chris Kirkland and his balky back remains in goal, while Gary Caldwell, Emmerson Boyce, and Figueroa are holdovers in defense. Hendry Thomas, James McCarthy, and Diame will be fixtures in the midfield, while Victor Moses's first full season in Wigan will add depth to an attacking corps that prominently features Boselli, Rodallega and N'Zogbia (provided N'Zogbia hasn't caught the eye of one of the league's big clubs).
Prognosis
| Rk | Club | Avg | W | D | L | GF | GA | 1st | Top 4 | Top 7 | Relegated | Best | Worst | Range* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Wigan Athletic | 15.7 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 20.0 | 49.2 | 78.8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 35.0% | 5 | 20 | 9-20 |
Why: The defending does not improve, as it's uncertain that the additions of Alcaraz and Stam will actually move Wigan forward. he additions in attack produce a dozen extra goals, but it's not enough to keep Wigan out of the relegation zone of our simulation. That speaks to the hole in which Wigan starts the season.
Best Case Scenario: Boselli adds a second 10-plus goal scorer to the team. Alcarez makes a smoother transition to the EPL than countryman Paulo Da Silva did last season. Martínez's second year with the club sees players better adjusted to the system, and Wigan flirts at the edge of Europe.
Nightmare: None of the changes work. The backline is actually worse for letting Bramble and Melchiot go. Kirkland's back gets worse. The midfield's too weak with Martínez's formation, and Boselli has no more success with Wigan than he had with Malaga. N'Zogbia returns to earth, and Wigan is relegated with little fight.
Most Likely: While the simulation has Wigan relegated, I like Martínez to keep the Latics up. My software and I will just have to make a little side bet. If you want to play along, I suggest pegging Wigan for 16th or 17th place.
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