Liverpool make the Premier League's Big Four and Big Three with their fall to seventh place last season. SB Nation Soccer editor Richard Farley looks at what the change from Rafa Benítez to Roy Hodgson means for the Reds' chance to rebound.
Aug 13, 2010 - Can we all agree that the American owners are not responsible for the failings of 2009-10?
We can't, can we? Okay, let's get into it.
As discussed when we looked at Tottenham, Liverpool had as many players in the World Cup as any team in the Premier League. That's not the best evaluation of talent, but it is a quick, easy, and effective way to tell somebody who says Liverpool needs investment that they don't know what they're talking about. I'm looking at you, Fernando Torres. I'm looking at you, Rafa Benítez. I'm looking at you, English press that bought Benítez's pitch without scrutinizing.
Let's do the press's due diligence. It doesn't take long Elite striker (Torres). World class support at the next level (Dirk Kuyt, Steven Gerrard, and now Joe Cole). One of the best ball-winning midfielders in the world (Javier Mascherano). International caliber players in defense (Daniel Agger, Martin Skrtel, Glen Johnson, Sotirios Kyrgiakos and the reputation of Jamie Carragher). The best goalkeeper in the Premier League last season (Pepe Reina), and considering all the Maxi Rodríguez-esque depth that does not fall into one of those categories, it seems Benítez's greatest failing was an inability to identify the talent in his own team.
That's no problem for Roy Hodgson, whose success at Fulham was built on maximizing the limited talent he was given. Consider the players Hodgson leaves behind who, under the new Liverpool manager, were playing better than at any other point in their careers: Bobby Zamora, Clint Dempsey, Danny Murphy, Brede Hangeland and Mark Schwarzer, just to name a few. That is the trademark of a good manager - making his players into the best they can be. It's helped defined the careers of managers like Alex Ferguson and José Mourinho. It also marks the most important difference between Hodgson and Benítez.
When you consider the inconsistency of Glen Johnson, you see where Hodgson will have an impact. The potential of Javier Mascherano? If the Argentine stays in Liverpool, it will be realized under Hodgson. Players like Lucas, Ryan Babel, and Emiliano Insúa stand a better chance of being stars under the new manager.
Benítez's managerial accomplishments put him far beyond most people who will ever coach in European football, but those accomplishments are years in the past. The current version of Benítez had become short-sighted, obsessed by what he wasn't being given by Tom Hicks and George Gillett when everything he needed was already at the club.
Hodgson may not get Liverpool back into Champions League, but if he struggles, he won't spend the season whining about resources. Liverpool has all the high-end talent, complementary players, and depth it needs. It's just a matter of making the combinations work.
The Cast
Major Comings: Joe Cole has come over from Chelsea. Serbian attacker Milan Jovanovic was bought from Standard Liège. Young defender Danny Wilson's been brought-in from Scotland. Christian Poulsen provides Mascherano-insurance.
Significant Goings: Yossi Benayoun takes Cole's place at Chelsea and ... and Alberto Riera moved to Greece, but that's not significant, is it?
Still There: See above.
Prognosis
| Rk | Club | Avg | W | D | L | GF | GA | 1st | Top 4 | Top 7 | Relegated | Best | Worst | Range* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Liverpool | 5.4 | 19.2 | 8.0 | 10.8 | 62.2 | 37.9 | 1.3% | 33.6% | 88.0% | 0.0% | 1 | 17 | 2-9 |
Why: The program isn't capable of quantifying what Roy Hodgson means to the club, so all it sees is a team that underperformed last season rebounding. The projection puts them on the same level as Tottenham and Manchester City - all three safely into Europa League, with one qualifying for Champions League.
Best Case Scenario: Not only does Liverpool return to Champions League, but they regain the form of two years ago, only this time they have Hodgson guiding them. Seventh to first sounds remarkable in this era of a top-heavy Premier League, but if 2009-10 turns out to be aberrational, Liverpool is still a contender - part of a Big Four.
Nightmare: Last year was only the start of a downward trend. Gerrard is getting old. Torres is just that injury-prone. Joe Cole is not the player of a generation (actually, that's part of the best case scenario, too). Mascherano leaves. Carragher keeps aging yet still receives playing time. Riena regresses and Liverpool finishes mid-table.
Most Likely: The program says it's a roll of the dice between them, Spurs and City for fourth. I go back-and-forth on this, but (today, at least) I would make Liverpool the clear favorite for that spot, pending what City does with the final two weeks of the transfer window.
4 comments
Comments
Xabi Alonso leaving
destroyed the spine of the team. ZM thinks he was the most important element of that team, and reviewing Benitez’s other teams I’m inclined to agree. There was no Mista or Baraja on last year’s team, no link between Mascherano and Gerrard (who lacks the patience and vision to fill Xabi Alonso’s role). Joe Cole is perfect for that role, but Hodgson is probably going 4-3-3 instead of Benitez’s strict 4-2-3-1.
"Voetbal is pas totaal als je wint"- Coach Adun
"The greatest sin is to spurn the gift"- Coach Alistair
by Londonjoe on Aug 13, 2010 12:44 PM EDT reply actions
I respect
… both you and ZM, but I completely disagree.
I think the myth of Xabi Alonso’s gotten out-of-control. If he was so important to the team (and he was important) it was because Benítez naively and excessively depended on what is otherwise a role player. Alonso is a tantalizing collection of skills, but he is nowhere near as influential as his proponents purport. He skill-set is narrow and isolated, and while he is amongst the elites of the world’s game when evaluating that skill-set alone, his all-around game is not that of a truly world class player.
If your team collapses because Alonso leaves, you are a bad manager. You’ve planned poorly, constructed your team naively, etc.
I would love for my team to have an Alonso, but he is a complementary player. Just as Benítez’s call for investment was ultimately public relations, this idea that Alonso’s departure sunk Liverpool’s season is just a way to deflect from Benítez’s failures.
IMO, of course.
-rf
by Richard Farley on Aug 13, 2010 12:52 PM EDT reply actions
The problem wasn't that Xabi Alonso was irreplaceable, it's that they didn't bother to replace him
The luxuries of the 4-2-3-1 are first, your attacking midfielders need not be box-to-box guys, and second, you have a decent chance of numbers in all phases of play (among others). The requirements for the formation differ in how you get the ball forward (Man U and Spain play remarkably similar formations in remarkably different ways- Man U uses wide wingers when they can post-Ronaldo, Spain plays through the middle), but I like the continental way of building through the middle on the ground with outside to inside movement from the wingers (Spain does this spectacularly well).
Liverpool at their best was a team that surged through the middle of the field, connecting on a final pass that hit a winger cutting in, Gerrard hitting from range, or an extra pass from or to Torres finding an extra open man (the most frequently used option, I believe).
So, we have a formation that controls the ball in the midfield, applying pressure gradually up the field through passing triangles until a connection with the wingers or hold up player is made. At that point, Liverpool had an amazing amount of possibilities (Gerrard, Kuyt, Torres, etc.) to apply pressure on goal, and other teams had to honor all of them at range. Defences got spread out, and once one goal was scored, it got worse as the other team had to attempt to push up the field, leaving more space to cut in to.
The weakness is in the two- one of whom must be a ball winning holding midfielder (you can have two- Makalele being the prototype) and one of whom must be able to connect the defense with the advanced players. It requires both the ability to make passes and tough decisions, to go forward and to go square, and to see not just the next pass but the next three passes (I believe this is why Xavi and Iniesta are so great). The burden of linking the back line with the forwards rests on those two players (usually with help from the middle man in the next tier), and they see far more touches than the other players on the pitch. There aren’t many players in the Premiership who fit that role that particularly well, and Xabi Alonso was one of them.
Liverpool tried plugging in a number of players into that role one Alonso left, but no one really worked: they couldn’t hold the ball up the field (we did learn that Glen Johnson was not the answer to the question of advancing the ball), make the final pass (Stevie is a bit of a headless chicken, and undependable when you need discipline and forethought), or come deep to retrieve the ball from the back line or Mascherano (Kuyt’s problem, he likes to stay forward despite being an excellent possession player). Theoretically, Benayoun might have been the guy, but he wasn’t. The link disappeared between defense and offense, and, well, the match turned into the “Watch Glen Johnson lose the ball in midfield and fail to recover show” or “Studies in Rt.1 football: Liverpool 2009.” Perhaps Joe Cole is the answer (probably not).
"Voetbal is pas totaal als je wint"- Coach Adun
"The greatest sin is to spurn the gift"- Coach Alistair
by Londonjoe on Aug 13, 2010 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Ah!
we agree! i just misinterpreted.
-rf
by Richard Farley on Aug 13, 2010 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions
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