A Closer Look: Blue Jays Outfielder Jose Bautista

Jose Bautista has surprised everyone in 2010 with his power display. Who would have picked Jose Bautista to lead the majors in HRs this late in the season. Not me. Let's take a look at how he is doing it, and if it is sustainable.

Bautista is hitting .256-.373-.591 with 37 HRs, 90 RBIs and 79 runs scored in 2010. Prior to this year, his career high in HRs and RBIs was 16 and 63, so he has destroyed his career highs in both categories. He is doing this with a BABIP of .240, which is below his career BABIP of .273, yet his ISO is .337, well above his career high of .185.  His SLG% of .593 is almost 200 points higher than his career high.

Bautista is walking more-14.4% vs 11.5% for his career, and striking out less-22% vs 24% for his career. His batted ball data tell us he is hitting alot more flyballs this year than in years past-52% vs career avg. of 44%, and less ground balls-33% vs career avg. of 40%. His HR/FB% is also well above his career avg-21% vs 13% for his career.

All of this data tells me his 2010 performance is not sustainable, especially at the age of 30. He will be a popular "let another owner draft him" candidate in 2011, and I will have to agree with that assessment.