A Closer Look: Dodgers Outfielder Matt Kemp

Coming into the 2010 season, I might have been Matt Kemp's biggest supporter. He had put in his best season as a major leaguer in 2009, hitting .297-.352-.497 with 26 HRs, 101 RBIs and 34 SBs. Quite a season for a 25 year old. I got behind the theory that he was still growing as a hitter and could put up a 30-30 season in 2010. Boy, was I wrong. Let's take a look at what happened to him at the plate.

Kemp is striking out 27% of his at bats this season, up from 23% in 2009, and he is walking at an 8% rate-similar to last season. His BABIP has regressed as well, down to a 4 year low of .304. In the last four years, his BABIP has dropped from .411 to .361 in 2008, to .345 in 2009, and now sits at .304. 

His ISO of .184 is right around his 2009 ISO of .193, so his power is still solid, but he is hitting just .254-.311-.438 on the season, which is down considerably from 2009. The across the board drop in his triple slash line appears to be directly correlated to the drop in his BABIP. His BABIP has dropped 0.31 in 2010, his BA has dropped 0.43, and his OBP has dropped by 0.41.

His batted ball data show that he is still hitting the same amount of line drives, ground ball and fly ball. His batted ball stats in 2009 were 21%/41%/38% (LD/GB/FB) vs 20%/41%/39% in 2010. His HR/FB% has remained constant at 14%, which is a good sign.

His plate discipline stats show he is swinging at 65% of pitches in the zone vs 68% in 2009, and is making less contact at pitches in the zone-83% in 2009 vs 79% in 2010. This data partially explains his drop in BABIP this season.

After stealing 34 bases in 42 attempts in 2009, Kemp has either lost some speed on the basepaths or is not getting good jumps, as he has stolen 16 bases in 30 attempts. Yes, he has beemn caught 14 times in 30 attempts-very poor. I think he needs to spend extra time with Maury Wills next spring training. 

That is if he is still a Dodger. Either way, Kemp is capable of much more in 2011. Next year is Kemp's walk year, as he can become a free agent after the 2011 season. I am sure the lure of a huge contract will light a fire in Kemp, and he could come cheap on draft day in 2011.