The New Jersey Nets had a historically bad season last year, and there's no big star newcomer here to save them. But they at least appear to be moving in the right direction.
Sep 15, 2010 - The good news about the New Jersey Nets' 2009/10 season is that they didn't set a record for futility. For about five months, it looked like they would challenge the 1972/73 Philadelphia 76ers for the worst record of all time. The Nets set a NBA record by losing their first 18 games, and their record was 7-63 on March 22. A relatively promising 5-7 finish provided a little optimism, and they entered the summer with some young pieces, a high draft pick (potentially number one), a well-known new coach in Avery Johnson and enough cap space to make a run at the big free agents.
But the bad luck continued in the offseason. The Wizards and 76ers leapfrogged them in the John Wall sweepstakes, and all the big free agents of any kind chose to sign elsewhere. Instead of making big moves, the Nets drafted Derrick Favors with the third overall pick and chose to use their cap space to bring in younger, lesser-known players like Travis Outlaw, Anthony Morrow and Jordan Farmar. They also made a trade for Indiana's Troy Murphy.
On paper, that isn't a great haul. But, to be fair, the Nets did upgrade a problem position they've dealt with for years: power forward. As SB Nation's Nets blog Nets Daily notes:
Since Kenyon Martin was traded in 2004, the Nets biggest weakness has been at the power forward spot. They finally addressed this glaring hole by drafting a potential stud in Derrick Favors with the third overall pick, but by also acquiring the sweet shooting lefty, Troy Murphy. Murphy will allow Favors to come along a little more slowly instead of being thrust into the starting lineup from the get-go. Acquiring Murphy did come at a price, though, as young guard Courtney Lee was shipped out in the four-team deal. It hurts to lose a young player with potential, but the emergence of Terrence Williams made him expendable.
On paper, the Murphy-Favors combination is certainly interesting. Murphy is an underrated performer that is both a great rebounder and an elite three-point shooter, which is extremely rare, and Favors has tremendous upside. But I do worry about whether Favors can properly develop with Murphy sitting in front of him. For Nets fans, the hope is that Murphy ends up being both a solid performer and a mentor to Favors. That may happen, but not all veterans end up being those kinds of players.
Nets Are Scorching agrees that the two interior positions (center, with Brook Lopez around, and power forward) are strengths. The wing positions, however, are another story.
All the wings on the Nets' roster have the potential to be very good this year, but they also have the potential to be very average. Travis Outlaw is going to be a full-time starter for the first time in his career. Is he going to be able to handle it? Anthony Morrow has always been known as a shooter, but hasn't been able to do much else in his first couple seasons. Can he add a dribble-drive or some defensive ability to his game? Terrence Williams was fantastic during the later portion of the season. Can he be consistant and become a better defender? Damion James is a physical player who used to the play the 4 and should be playing the 3 for the Nets. He is a very strong defender and can hit a shot. Can he improve his ball handling skills? A lot of questions for this group.
But the most important player on the Nets is probably point guard Devin Harris. Two years ago, Harris was an all-star, dazzling so thoroughly that the Mavericks were getting heavily criticized for giving him up to get Jason Kidd. Last season, however, was a nightmare for Harris. Without Vince Carter to help him in the backcourt, Harris never was able to score effectively, and his shortcomings setting others up were magnified.
Dennis Velasco of Fanway expects Harris to rebound this season.
Will Devin Harris become an All-Star player again?If he can stay healthy, I believe Harris has a good chance. The former All-Star can score, particularly from attacking the basket, and can dish. This season he'll have a much better group of players around him with shooters that will draw the defense out and open the box for Harris, plus more athletic players that should be able to finish on the break, which Harris would lead when on the floor. Johnson will also demand Devin to play D once again, so expect him to be a factor on the defensive end of the court, which will make Harris a better all-around player.
In the end, the key for the Nets will be to rebuild a winning culture, even if they are not in playoff contention. The bloggers, however, are pretty optimistic about the teams' prospects this season.
14 comments
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
Scoreboard data copyright © 2012 by STATS LLC. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of STATS LLC is strictly prohibited.
OpenCalais - Powered by Thomson Reuters
•
Odds Shark 
Comments
I certainly hope the Nets' record is a bit better than the 25-57 you're predicting, because Brook Lopez needs to be an All-Star, and he won't get there w/ the Nets in the toilet.
But there aren’t any reliable wing scorers for this team to be at all dangerous. Travis Outlaw can get it going every once in a while, sure, and he’s loads better than any of their wings last year, but he can also shoot them out of games just as easily.
The Murphy pickup is brilliant, though. He’s skilled, works hard, spreads the floor for Lopez, and puts pressure on Favors to really earn a spot in that rotation.
Orlando Pinstriped Post: Blogging the Orlando Magic with Energy and Enthusiasm Since 2007 | Third Quarter Collapse Is Now Orlando Pinstriped Post | Orlando Pinstriped Post Online Store
by Evan Dunlap on Sep 15, 2010 12:44 PM EDT reply actions
25-57?
Really? With all the acquisitions you’ve discussed including the strengths and weaknesses, You’ve failed to add our new front office in this equation.With Avery Johnson, Sam Mitchell, Larry Krystkowiak, and Popeye Jones on board, I can easily see this team in the high 30 win column.
by Ely Younger on Sep 16, 2010 12:14 PM EDT reply actions
High 30s?
That’s a 25+ win improvement. That’s optimistic as hell.
SB Nation DC | Bullets Forever | Twitter.
by Mike Prada on Sep 16, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
YOur judging based on past records not on how good they are. Your being bias and nobody around the league believes the Nets will end up will less than 32. Either you didnt do any research or…
by i says on Sep 17, 2010 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Ask yourself
when the last time a team had 3 returning players from the previous year’s training camp on the roster and those 3 include Lopez, Harris, and Williams.
Section 129 2010-2011 @ the ROCK
by NetsKiNG on Sep 18, 2010 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Barring disaster, they'll win more than 25
1) They were better than 12-70 last year— their Pythagorean (prediction of W-L from points for/against) put them at 17-65.
2) They had a lot of injuries. They could have the same number this year, but given average health they should pick up several games from this. If Harris comes back all the way to 08-09 form they could pick up 10 wins. Call it a conservative 4, giving them 21.
3) Murphy instead of Yi is a huge difference, probably 7-8 wins. Call it 28.
4) They had no coach for most of the year. Not a bad coach, but NO COACH, no plays, no defensive concept, no motivating. Avery over Kiki is worth several wins. Hard to quantify (obviously), but I’d say 3 or more. Now I’m at 31.
5) Terrence Williams was terrible for 4.5 months, then he was Andre Iguodala for 1.5. If most of that gain is real (and why wouldn’t it be?), that’s 3 wins. 34.
6) Replacing Josh Boone with Petro was a minus— call it a loss of 2 wins. But that’s balanced by Outlaw instead of Jarvis Hayes. Still 34.
7) The bench is stronger: TWill, Favors, James, and Farmar beats CD-R and Dooling. Maybe 2 wins. 36.
So I’m going with 36. If Lopez or Harris gets hurt, it should be lower, but if TWill or Favors or Outlaw or James has a breakout year, higher. Ditto if Lopez takes a step forward.
by calling all toasters on Sep 16, 2010 2:58 PM EDT reply actions
I don't like Yi
But the difference between him and Murphy is not 8 wins. Not with the kind of defense Murphy plays.
I’m also not sure Devin gets back to his 08-09 level when he’s never had another season in his career that good.
You’re right that the Pythag wasn’t as bad as the regular record indicates, but I’m not sure that really carries over from year-to-year.
SB Nation DC | Bullets Forever | Twitter.
by Mike Prada on Sep 16, 2010 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Murphy’s defense is worth several victories by itself when compared to Yi, who is almost certainly the worst defender in the NBA. Luis Scola scored 44 points against him; Blatche got 36.
Pythagorean carries over far better from year-to-year than W-L does. Hell, it predicts playoff performance better.
by calling all toasters on Sep 17, 2010 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Also, I’m really estimating that Harris (now healthy) probably gets 1/3 of the way back to 08-09. If I projected him getting all the way back, that would be 7 more victories.
by calling all toasters on Sep 17, 2010 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
he was still growing as a player and las year was a step backwards, because of the injuries and how bad shooters he had around him. Harris’ game is that of an attacker. He goes to the hole, and either finishes himself, or forces trips to the stripe, or kicks it out to the open shooter if there are defensive helps.
Go compare Nets’ shooters % last year and the year Harris was an AS.
Compare Carter’s pct in 2008-09 to Lee’s (his replacement in the starting lineup) last season.
Compare Hayes, Dooling, Simmons’ pct and ames played in 1008-09 to last season.
2008-09
Carter- .385
Simmons- .447 (71 GP).
Dooling- .421 (77 GP).
Hayes- .385 (74 GP).
2009-2010
Lee- .338.
Simmons- .317 (23 GP).
Dooling- .376 (53 GP).
Hayes- .335 (45 GP).
The difference is so signficant it’s not even funny. The Nets were a terrible shootig team last season and that hurt Devin’s game big time. They addressed that and imrpoved their perimeter shooting with the additions of Morrow, Murphy, Outlaw, Farmar and James.
Also, Harris needs a good playmaking wing next to him to make up for his deficiencies in that deprtament. He had Carter a couple of years ago and Williams didn’t break out until the final 2 months of the season. SO with TWill’s break out that’s a huge help for Harris and another necessary type of player he needed next to him and didn’t have for most of last season.
by Andres B on Sep 19, 2010 6:56 AM EDT up reply actions
No way Murphy's worth 8 wins over Yi in an entire season. He's tons better than Yi, sure, but not by 8 wins.
Orlando Pinstriped Post: Blogging the Orlando Magic with Energy and Enthusiasm Since 2007 | Third Quarter Collapse Is Now Orlando Pinstriped Post | Orlando Pinstriped Post Online Store
by Evan Dunlap on Sep 16, 2010 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Murphy AND Favors replacing Yi is a MASSIVE improvemnet. That alone is worth 8 wins or more
by Andres B on Sep 19, 2010 6:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Using WARP, Murphy beats Yi by 9 wins in each of the last 2 seasons. By Win Shares it’s 7 per year. I don’t think adding in 7 is excessive.
by calling all toasters on Sep 17, 2010 4:49 PM EDT reply actions
25 wins is too low
The Nets have literally a completely new team, coaching staff, front office and arena. I hate when 35 wins are suggested that writers respond with “well that’s a 20+ game improvement..no way!” Yeah, it would be crazy if the Nets had even close to a similar lineup as last year. Oh, and Murphy is is a GIGANTIC improvement over Yi.. that guy was so horrific on both ends of the floor I did cartwheels in my office at work when I read he was traded. Avery will get this team to play defense and barring an significant injuries there’s no reason they can’t win around 35 games or more.
Section 129 2010-2011 @ the ROCK
by NetsKiNG on Sep 18, 2010 4:22 PM EDT reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed