For those of you who are wondering, my friend and I developed this formula as a project for math class. Since we created it two years ago, we have tinkered with it to the point it is currently at. Here is the criteria that our rankings our based on.
Here are the parameters that these rankings are based on
- Record (winning percentage)
- Strength of Schedule
- Strength of Victory
- Points Per Game and Points Allowed per game
- Yards per Game and Yards allowed per Game
- Total offensive rank and Total defensive rank
- Turnover differential
- Divisional Strength
- Conference Strength
After the jump, see Week 7's power rankings
Rank #. Team Name (Record), (LW Ranking), (LW Percentage), This weeks Percentage
1. Green Bay Packers (7-0), (1) (.997), .995 - The Packers drop by a few percentage points despite a win due to their SOS going down as well as their defensive ranks and their Strength of Victory going down. For reference sake, the lowest possible score for a 7-0 team is .9927.
2. San Francisco 49ers (5-1), (3) (.992) - .992 - The 49ers slide into the #2 spot by the thinnest of margins (.0002) due to their SOS advantage over the Pats. The 49ers seem to have a firm hold on the NFC Worst and the only thing keeping them from approaching the Packers .995 ranking is their horrible division. With just 3 combined wins from the rest of the division, they are the weakest in the NFL by a huge margin.
3. New England Patriots (5-1), (2) (.993) - .992 - The Pats dropped due to Oakland's loss, which hurt their SOS. However, this team has a chance to rise up in the rankings with a huge showdown at Heinz field this weekend. Their defensive ranks will prevent them from putting up extremely high record rankings (the maximum rating for a 5-1 team is .9953) but their phenomenal offense will keep them from being at the bottom of the record rankings (the minimum rating for a 5-1 team is .899).
4. New Orleans Saints (5-2), (12) (.968) - .983 - The Saints make a huge leap due to a 62-7 victory over the lowly Colts. When you boost your offensive and defensive stats like they did, it will cause a massive leap in the rankings. I would expect them to normalize over the next two weeks, barring another blowout victory.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2), (9) (.973) - .980 - The Steelers rise up from an impressive victory and losses from the Ravens, Lions, and Chargers. A win over the Patriots would probably jump them to the highest rated 2 loss team.
6. Detroit Lions (5-2), (5) (.989) - .977 - The Lions are falling back into their losing ways but their ranking did not really get affected that much. Both their losses have been by single digits and both to very good teams. They have a chance to rise back up to the top of the 2 loss teams by just winning because they have average stats on offense and defense and a good SOS. I was honestly quite surprised to see the Steelers rank ahead of them because of their SOS.
7. Baltimore Ravens (4-2), (4) (.990) - .973 - The Ravens embarrassed themselves on national television last night and their ranking takes a huge hit. Instead of being 1st in the AFC North, they are now tied for 2nd. Instead of being 2nd in the AFC, they are now tied for 5th. Add in their offensive rankings plummeting from that pathetic performance and it will cause a fall. However, they are still the top rated 4-2 team due to their SOS and defensive ranks.
8. Buffalo Bills (4-2), (10) (.972) - .972 - The Bills almost passed the Ravens for that number one spot (the 4 decimal ranks were .9727 for the Ravens and .9723 for the Bills) but still come in well ahead of the rest of the 4- 2 teams due to a goo SOS, a huge win over the Pats, respectable losses, and quality rankings in both offense and defense, as well as a very high TO margin.
9. Cincinnati Bengals (4-2), (14) (.947) - .952 - The Bengals rise due to other teams falling and the fact that they have the #1 total defense in the league. Despite a middle of the pack offense, an average SOS, and a horrible loss to the Broncos, they maintain a place in the top 10 and have some chances to rise or fall depending on results in the next few weeks with games against the Steelers, Ravens, and Steelers again in a four week span.
10. San Diego Chargers (4-2), (6) (.987) - .948 - The Chargers had victory and a top 5 ranking in hand untilPhilip Rivers pulled his best Tony Romo impression and threw the game away. The Chargers have not been all that impressive and their low ranking among 4-2 teams reflects that.
11. New York Giants (4-2), (7) (.978) - .947
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-3), (11) (.970) - .932
13. Atlanta Falcons (4-3), (NR) (NR) - ..931
14. Houston Texans (4-3), (17) (.886) - .929
15. New York Jets (4-3), (NR) (NR) - .923
16. Oakland Raiders (4-3), (13) (.954) - .915
Drop Outs: Tennessee, Washington
28. Arizona Cardinals (1-5), (NR) (NR) - .214 - The Cardinals fought hard this week but did not have the talent to compete for four quarters with the Steelers. They look like a 4 to 5 win team this year and will probably rise out of this ranking quickly with two games against St. Louis in the next five weeks.
29. Minnesota Vikings (1-6), (NR) (NR) - .199 - The Vikings almost shocked the world but instead they fell just short and dropped into further oblivion. This team is much better than their record shows. However, their inability to hold leads has cost them big time.
30. Miami Dolphins (0-6), (30) (.189) - .111 - Here is where it gets laughable. The Dolphins are so bad their own players say they suck. Matt Moore is their starting QB. They will be in the Suck for Luck campaign till the end and I think they have a legitimate shot at losing every game this year.
31. St. Louis Rams (0-6), (32) (.102) - .101 - Sam Bradford does not play, same result. This team is awful. They have no talent on this team and despite being picked as the NFC West winner this preseason, it just is not going to happen. If I was the Rams GM and I had the #1 pick, I would take Luck and try and trade Bradford. He is just not that good and Luck is a once in a generation player.
32. Indianapolis Colts (0-7), (31) (.113) - .099 - Now this team is just down right embarrassing. How the hell do you lose 62-7. Alabama St. plays Alabama closer than 62-7. This is supposed to be an NFL team yet they haveCurtis Painter at QB? They have the talent at WR and TE to be respectable offense yet they just are not. And their defense is even worse. Cant stop the run. Cant stop the pass. Cant stop anything. Im embarrassed for them.
If you have any questions about these, feel free to ask