1. Indianapolis, Projected record: 0-16
Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
Will they keep him? I think so.
2. Minnesota, Projected record: 2-14
Matt Kalil, OT, USC
Possibly the Vikings would look to trade down and get some extra picks. If they don't, I think that Kalil is the best value pick- a long term answer at LT.
3. St. Louis, Projected record: 2-14
Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
In this scenario, with Kalil off the board, I think that the Rams put the O-line off for a round and take Blackmon. If Bradford can remain upright, he'll have an amazing new weapon.
4. Miami, Projected record: 3-13
Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
Miami won't hesitate to pull the trigger on Griffin, who's burned his way up draft board due to a phenomenal season. With Griffin, the Dolphins would finally get their franchise QB.
5. Jacksonville, Projected record: 4-12
Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina
There are several directions that Jacksonville could go with this pick, but at the end of the day their defense has actually been pretty good this year and they have less than nothing at WR. Jeffery's projects as the #2 receiver in the draft and has the physical gifts to be a #1 receiver for Blaine Gabbert on day one.
6. Carolina, Projected record: 4-12
Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
With the top two WRs off the board, the BPA that fits a need for the Panthers is easily Claiborne. Carolina's secondary needs a lot of help and the #1 CB in the draft is a great foundation.
7. Cleveland, Projected record: 4-12
Matt Barkley, QB, USC
The Browns are going nowhere fast with Colt McCoy under center. He's shown zero progress in his second year. Yes, I know they need a new starting RB, but QB is a much bigger concern in the long run and Barkley is the kind of talent you hope not to find yourself in the position to draft too frequently.
8. Kansas City, Projected record: 4-12
Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
I've previously projected Kansas City to take a QB, but with the top three talents off the board, I think that they'll opt to patch the massive hole at LT instead.
9. Washington, Projected record: 5-11
Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma
One team that won't hesitate to take a chance on Landry Jones is Mike Shanahan's Redskins- he'd be an instant upgrade over both Beck and Grossman.
10. Seattle, Projected record: 5-11
Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
With Seattle's QB woes, I could easily see them trading up (very possibly with Carolina in this scenario). If they can't or don't and miss out on the top 4 QBs, Richardson becomes the BPA and would fill a key need with Marshawn Lynch entering free agency.
11. Arizona, Projected record: 6-10
Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
Few teams are in as desperate a place for O-line help as Arizona. Reiff would provide them with solid protection for Kevin Kolb next year.
12. San Diego, Projected record: 6-10
Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
The Chargers have really struggled with pass rush and stopping the run this year. Coples has a massive upside and the potential to function well in either a 3-4 scheme or, if a new regime makes a change, a 4-3 scheme.
13. Tampa Bay, Projected record: 6-10
Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
The Bucs need to start over in the secondary- they've been miserable against both the pass and rush this year, and their long time #1 and #2 CBs are both in doubt for next season. Kirkpatrick has the size, speed, and skills to match up with any receiver in the NFL. I know, the Bucs like Alfonzo Dennard- I'm sure they liked him a whole lot more when they thought they'd be drafting somewhere in the 20s.
14. Philadelphia, Projected record: 7-9
Zach Brown, LB, North Carolina
The dream is over- and the poor play of the Eagles linebackers had a lot to do with it. Brown is a phenomenal prospect with blinding speed, and would be an immediate starter for Philly.
15. Tennessee, Projected record: 8-8
Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
The Titans' season lost most of its promise when Kenny Britt went down with an injury. If Tennessee wants to make a playoff run next year, they'll need to get some more weapons for Hasselbeck and/or Locker. Floyd's off-the-field issues will drop him down the board, but sooner or later a team is going to find his talent too irresistable.
16. Buffalo, Projected record: 8-8
Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama
The Bills are in desperate need of pass rush. Upshaw is likely the top 3-4 OLB on the board and an excellent needs-value pick for Buffalo.
17. Denver, Projected record: 9-7
Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska
Champ Bailey can't play forever, and the Denver secondary is in need of some young blood. Dennard has been a standout at Nebraska and projects as the #3 CB on the board.
18. NY Giants, Projected record: 9-7
Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College
I could also see the Giants addressing O-line here, but with the talent left on the board at the position and their ongoing needs at LB, Kuechly seems like a natural fit.
19. NY Jets, Projected record: 10-6
Vontaze Burfict, ILB, Arizona State
Burfict is dropping fact due to his benching and lessened production. Still, some team will take a chance on him due to his aggressiveness, speed, and intensity. The Jets seem like the ideal place for a guy like Burfict, and Rex Ryan seems like the perfect guy to take that chance.
20. Chicago, Projected record: 10-6
Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin
WR is their biggest need, but with the top three prospects off the table the Bears go for the conservative play and draft for the O-line again. With Konz at center, Garza can move back to guard and the whole line improves.
21. Cincinnati (from Oakland), Oakland's projected record: 10-6, AFC West champions, loss in wildcard round
Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
Jenkins may have serious off-the-field issues, but Cincinnati has traditionally tolerated antics in return for solid play. Jenkins has tremendous talent and the Bengals need a replacement for the departed Jonathan Joseph.
22. Detroit, Projected record: 10-6, 6th seed wildcard, loss in wildcard round
David DeCastro, G, Stanford
Detroit's O-line has been its Achilles heel for a long time now. With the top three OTs off the table, look for the Lions to snatch up the #1 guard prospect in DeCastro.
23. Cleveland (from Atlanta), Atlanta's projected record: 11-5, 5th seed wildcard, loss in wildcard round
Barrett Jones, OT, Alabama
Cleveland has so many positions of need, it's hard to pick just one. There aren't any WRs or RBs left who are a clear top 25 pick, and O-line seems like it's slightly more pressing than D-line for the Browns. Jones is a very solid talent with a lot of versatility- the Browns could plug him into pretty much any slot on their line and be better.
24. Cincinnati, Projected record: 11-5, 6th seed wilcard, loss in wildcard round
Kelechi Osemele, G/T, Iowa State
The Bengals will look to protect Andy Dalton with their second pick. The interior of their line is weak and Bobbie Williams will likely be gone after the season; Osemele can function well as either a right tackle or guard.
25. Houston, Projected record: 11-5, AFC South champions, loss in divisional round
Alameda Ta'amu, NT, Washington
Shaun Cody has been serviceable for Houston, but the Texans need a long-term true nose tackle to serve as the core of their D-line. Ta'amu would be an excellent match for them with a good needs-value ratio.
26. Dallas, Projected record: 11-5, NFC East champions, loss in divisional round
Chase Minnifield, CB, Virginia
In this scenario, Dallas has the bad luck to be picking after the top players at their positions of need (O-line, secondary) are off the board. I could also see them taking a safety like T.J. McDonald or an O-lineman, but Minnifield seems like the best match for them here, particularly as 1) they need to draft a CB high this year and 2) lots of other teams will take a CB as their second pick before Dallas picks again.
27. Pittsburgh, Projected record: 12-4, 5th seed wildcard, loss in divisional round
Manti Te'o, ILB, Notre Dame
It's tempting to mock Cordy Glenn to Pittsburgh, just because that position is generally acknowledged as their weakest. But if Te'o drops to them, the Steelers' doctrine of BPA and the possibility of Farrior retiring makes this a gimme pick. The rich get richer.
28. San Francisco, Projected record: 14-2, NFC West champions, loss in divisional round
Dwight Jones, WR, North Carolina
CB is arguably a more pressing position of need, but with the top five already off the board I think the Niners would address their biggest offensive need first. Jones has massive potential and at 6'4" and 215 lbs. he's a coverage nightmare for secondaries.
29. New England (from New Orleans), New Orleans' projected record: 13-3, NFC South champions, NFC championship game loss
Devon Still, DE/DT, Penn State
Andre Carter has helped the Patriots' pass rush, but a young defensive end is a huge need. Devon Still is a bargain this late in the first round and has the promise to develop as a long term solution for New England.
30. New England, Projected record: 13-3, AFC East champions, AFC championship game loss
Brandon Jenkins, DE/OLB, Florida State
New England is so tough to mock for, because they almost inevitably trade away one of their top picks for future picks. Nevertheless- I have to think they double-dip at defense this year. With that porous secondary I could easily see them taking Stephon Gilmore, T.J. McDonald, or Mark Barron. But Jenkins is too big a talent and the pass rush too much of a liability for the Patriots to pass on taking him. Until they trade away the pick, of course.
31. Baltimore, Projected record: 12-4, AFC North champions, AFC champions, Super Bowl loss
Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama
There are several directions that Baltimore could go with this pick (O-line, pass rush, WR). But I think that the opportunity to draft a player to take over for Ray Lewis in a season or two is too good an opportunity to pass up.
32. Green Bay, Projected record: 16-0, NFC North champions, NFC champions, Super Bowl win
Ronnell Lewis, DE/OLB, Oklahoma
Eric Walden has been inconsistent and Matthews has been double-teamed, limiting his effectiveness. Green Bay could really use another playmaking OLB to line up across from him, and Lewis, who has been a physical force for Oklahoma looks ideal for their needs.
Rounds two and three are posted in my full three round mock at Bucs Nation. Feedback is always welcome.