Despite months of evaluations based on what actually happened on the football field, some players will see their stock change dramatically during the T-shirt olympics (NFL combine).
Lets examine who may see the biggest JUMP or FALL
DE, my number one fall (because I have not seen a single mock draft other than mine without him) is ....
Ryan Kerrigan, DE Purdue. During the season ( really productive senior year at Purdue), I really liked him as a second round pick, but the combine will show the world that he is not athletic enough to be a first round pick. (However, I expect him to be a very good NFL pass rusher despite this)
Adrian Clayborn, DE Iowa. Another Big 10 DE who has been very productive, but will look bad at the combine, he still should become a solid 4-3 DE lining up over RTs, but will never be a great pass rusher.
DTs Drake Nevis LSU and Stephen Paea are often mocked in the first (with Paea even going as high as #11 to Houston) but both are undersized 4-3 DTs only. They are NOT 3-4 NT, or 3-4 DEs. Few teams will be looking for 4-3 DEs this year, and I have Paea as an early 2nd, and Nevis as an early 3rd.
WRs Titus Young, Boise State and Torrey Smith, Maryland. Normally the combine is a place for speed demons to rise, but some currently have both as a first rounders. Post-combine, Young should settle in between late 2nd to late 3rd. Torrey wont run fast enough to escape the shadow of DHB, but is a solid 2nd round pick.
Mark Ingram in shorts is about the 20th best RB in this draft, and most scouts already expected him to do poorly at the combine, but actually seeing it happen is sure to lessen the opinion of at least several teams.
I however have him going to Miami in the first, and think that may be too low.
With AJ Green, " falling" is again a relative term, but when (Green commonly "mocked" as the #1 pick to Carolina) goes #6 to the Browns due to a 4.6 40 (and being blown away by the larger Jon Baldwin) that IS falling.
Colin Kaepernick: Talking heads overreacted, after surprising many during senior bowl workouts, (1st round or even high second is WAY too high) I think he is a "reach" in the 3rd.
Cory Liuget, DT Illinois doens't compare to Cameron Heyward, Cameron Jordan, Marcell Dareus, Nick Fairley, JJ Watt, and Allen Bailey.
Jeramy Beal, DE already fell after a poor Senior Bowl, but will continue his nosedive.
QBs Andy Dalton, Ricky Stanzi, and Greg McElroy favorite sleepers among some will all have their bubble burst, and all will be drafted around the 5th round.
Those who may see their stock rise post combine include:
With several similar RBs in the 2011 draft (Kendall Hunter, Jaquizz Rodgers, Dion Lewis,ect.) Noel Devine needed to seperate himself from the crowd. He did just that, at the senior bowl, weighing in about 35 pounds less than all the aforementioned RBs. Some stated he was likely going to be an undrafted free agent. During the combine, Devine will once again seperate himself, but this time in a positve direction after he runs the fastest 40 time for a RB.
Another who will burn up the track is Virginia Tech CB Rashad Carmichael.
Jon Baldwin will have people comparing him to Calvin Johnson after the combine, but it wont be enough to pass Julio and AJ Green. He will secure himself as the third best WR prospect.
USC went under-the-radar in 2010, and with no bowl game, many forgot how much talent was there. I believe nearly all USC products will see their stock rise, from potential 1st round picks Tyron Smith (OT) and Jurrell Casey (DT) to late round prospects Stanley Havili (FB) and Jordan Cameron (TE).
I expect some of the players who were injured during the 2010 season, to show up with improved health....
I think Greg Romeus (DE, Pitt), Ras-I-Dowling (CB/S, Virginia), and Christian Ponder will show up healthy and put on an impressive performance.
Mike Pouncey may not be able to snap the ball very well, but will show he is every bit the athlete as his twin brother Maurkice, and will secure a spot in the first round.
Nearly everyone had Marvin Austin as a top 10 pick last summer, but his suspension has hurt him much more than fellow TarHeel Robert Quinn. I understand that to a degree, but still think he will go top 50.
And finally.....Allen Bailey, as expected will be one of the stars of the combine, and will also cement his place in the first round.