Comp Pick Predictions



It looks like AdamJT13 has abandoned his excellent work in predicting compensatory picks.  Since I want to start working on my final 7-round mock now, I decided to look at slotting comp picks myself.  I claim no credit for this work, as I did nothing original.  I shamelessly used AdamJT13's publicly posted guidelines as best as I could.  You can find his work at  If you are unfamiliar with his work, the basics that affect comp picks are: 

1.  Players that are cut or not tendered as RFAs are not counted. 

2. Each player signed cancels out one player lost. 

3.  The round of the pick awarded is primarily determined by the total value of the contract signed.

I will first list the comp picks awarded and then provide the related team free agent activity at the end.  I am not explaining teams that did not get comp picks to save time.  But if you want an explanation or additional information for any of the 32 teams, let me know.  I also need your help.  If you know that one the players listed in the explanation section was cut by his previous team or was an untendered restricted free agent, please let me know.  They should not be in the comp pick analysis.  I relied on what information I could find.

I awarded 19 normal comp picks.  I am fairly confident in this number, but less confident in their round placement, because I am not sure how much the amount of playing time alters the placement by salary.  AJ Feeley did not take a snap, maybe that knocks him back a round.  Kampman and Vanden Bosch had the same contracts, but Kampman missed significant time.  The order of picks inside the late rounds is a mystery to me; AdamJT13 seemed to indicate playing time was more of a factor.  I awarded 2 net value picks (value difference between player lost and signed).  Since 32 comp picks must be awarded, that leaves 11 additional picks at the end, which follow the first 11 picks of the first round.


Compensatory Picks Awarded (round - team - player)

3 - Carolina - Julius Peppers

3 - Tennessee - Kyle Vanden Bosch (possibly a 4)

4 - Green Bay - Aaron Kampman  (possibly a 3)

4 - Seattle - Nate Burleson (possibly a 5)

5 - Baltimore - Justin Bannan

5 - New York Giants - Fred Robbins (possibly a 6)

6 - Miami - Nate Jones

6 - Minnesota - Chester Taylor

6 - San Diego - Brandon Manumaleuna

6 - Minnesota - Artis Hicks

6 - New York Giants - David Carr

6 - Carolina - AJ Feeley

6 - Kansas City - Wade Smith

7 - Philadelphia - Sean Jones

7 - Philadelphia - Jason Babin

7 - San Diego - Kassim Osgood

7 - New York Jets - Jay Feely

7 - Tampa Bay - Jimmy Wilkerson

7 - San Francisco - Arnaz Battle


7 - New Orleans

7 - New England


7 - Carolina

7 - Denver

7 - Buffalo

7 - Cincinnati

7 - Arizona

7 - Cleveland

7 - San Francisco

7 - Tennessee

7 - Dallas

7 - Washington

7 - Houston


Explanations (with contract signed):

Baltimore - Lost:  Bannan (5 yr $22 million), Edwards (4 yr $18 million)

                        Signed:  Redding (2 yr $6 million)

Carolina - Lost:  Peppers (6 yr $91.5 million), Feeley (2 yr $6 million)

Green Bay - Lost:  Kampman (4 yr $26 million)

Kansas City - Lost:  Smith (4 yr $12 million)

Miami - Lost:  Taylor (2 yr $13 million), Jones (4 yr 13.6 million)

                        Signed:  Dansby (5 yr $43 million)

Minnesota - Lost:  Taylor (4 yr 12.5 million), Hicks (3 yr $9 million)

New York Giants - Lost:  Robbins (3 yr $12 million), Carr (2 yr $6.2 million)

New York Jets - Lost:  Alan Faneca (2 yr $5 million), Feely (2 yr $3.5 million)

                                    Signed:  Taylor (2 yr $13 million)

Philadelphia - Lost:  Babin (1 yr $1 million), Jones (2 yr $3 million)

San Diego - Lost:  Manumaleuna (5 yr $15 million), Osgood (3 yr $6.675 million)

San Francisco - Lost:  Pashos (3 yr $10.5 million), Battle (3 yr $3.9 million)

                                    Signed: Carr (2 yr $6.2 million)

Seattle - Lost:  Burleson (5 yr $25 million), Redding (2 yr $6 million)

                        Signed:  Hamilton (1 yr $2 million)

Tampa Bay - Lost:  Allen (3 yr $6.25 million), Wilkerson (1 yr $1 million)

                        Signed:  Jones (2 yr $3 million)

Tennessee - Lost:  Vanden Bosch (4 yr $26 million), Crumpler (2 yr $2.4 million)

                        Signed:  Babin (1 yr $1 million)


Net Value Explanations:

New Orleans - Lost:  Fujita (3 yr $14 million)

                        Signed:  Wilkerson (1 yr $1 million)

New England - Lost:  Watson (3 yr $12 million)

                        Signed:  Crumpler (2 yr $2.4 million)


Other Interesting Tidbits:

New York Giants and Seattle saved their comp picks by signing players (Bulluck and Pitts) after the end of the free agency period on July 23.

Houston lost their 3 (from Dunta Robinson) by signing Wade Smith and Neil Rackers.

Arizona led the league in qualifying free agency transactions and prediction difficulty.  They lost their 3 (from Karlos Dansby) by signing more players than they lost.


If you think I made any errors or omissions, please let me know.

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