The BUST-O-METER is back again to break down our top 15 draft bust risks. The series of articles will look at two prospects per week breaking down why I feel they have a high potential for busting. Many factors played into my ranking including potential draft position. The draft position is very important because if they are selected high than what their production warrants it puts them at a higher likely hood of busting. These articles always bring a ton of feedback and are highly controversial which is what makes them so fun.
For a reference, I like to classify a bust as someone that doesn't live up to their draft position. This means that if a player is selected #1 overall I expect him to be a dominate player in the league. I also take into consideration what position the player is projected to play in the NFL. For example, if someone is selected in the top 10 and is projected as a rush 3-4 linebacker I expect to see a high sack total. Of course, there are many other factors that are specific for each player so check out the rest of the article after the JUMP.
Also don't forget to stop by our Scouting Reports page to get an in-depth look at each prospect.
Player: Tyron Smith
BUST-O-METER: 5 out of 10
Projected Draft Range: #8 overall to mid 1st round
Thoughts: I had a real hard time putting Smith on the potential bust list. If you have followed any of the articles I have written you will know that I hold Smith in very high regard. From the games I watched, I came away impressed with his technique, balance, and overall play. Smith has the potential to develop into an excellent left tackle in the NFL.
However, there are a few things that put him on the Bust-O-Meter countdown. Smith is undersized for an NFL tackle playing at around 285lbs while at USC. Some evaluators have wondered whether or not Smith can hold up at the point of attack and move defenders off the ball. While at USC, Smith played the right tackle position but many are projecting him to make the move to left tackle in the NFL. His lack of experience on the left side of the ball means there will be a transition period. At this point, we are projecting his abilities to the left side rather than watching him actually play there. These factors combined with the fact that left tackles have a high value could lead to a higher potential for bust. If Smith ends up being drafted around #10 overall he will be expected to develop into a pro bowl caliber left tackle. There are just to many unknowns at this point to say he is a sure fire prospect.