Arkansas Derby 2011: Longshot ArchArchArch Wins, The Factor Finishes Off The Board

When Bob Baffert's The Factor went gate-to-wire to win the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park last month he didn't just dominate one of the key prep races on the road to the 2011 Kentucky Derby, he also proved he was capable of running as effectively at two-turns he had done when sprinting.  But while his Rebel win was impressive, there are still those who question whether he possesses the stamina to win the biggest race in America.  This Saturday's Grade 1 Arkansas Derby in Hot Springs, Arkansas, (post time 5:58 Central) is another opportunity for The Factor to prove the doubters wrong.

The 2011 Arkansas Derby is the last of the $1 million prep races for this year's Kentucky Derby.  The approximately $600,000 awarded to the winning colt is easily enough in graded stakes earnings to guarantee a spot at this year's Derby on the first Saturday in May.  The $200,000 prize to second place probably won't get the job done unless the horse has already amassed around $50,000 of previous graded earnings. 

First run in 1936, the Arkansas Derby has produced such prior winners as two-time Horse of the Year Curlin, Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones, Victory Gallop, Pine Bluff, Sunny's Halo, and Nodouble.

Below is a horse-by-horse look at this year's Arkansas Derby (in order of post positions; 1-Caleb's Posse and 1a-Alternation are a coupled entry):

2-Nehro 5/1): Ran huge when finishing second to Pants On Fire in the Louisiana Derby at odds of 36/1 in his first race after breaking his maiden on February 21^st.  He's already shown he can step up in class and run a big race so it wouldn't be surprising if he runs well again in this spot.

2-Elite Alex (8/1): This colt should be re-named "Six wide" since that is the most likely comment you'll see in the trip notes after his races.  Elite Alex is a son of former Arkansas Derby, Preakness and Belmont winner Afleet Alex, and much like his father, he loves to come from well off-the-pace at the end of his races.  I think a lot of players would like to see what this colt could do with a cleaner trip but an equal concern is the fact that this colt seems to ALWAYS be in trouble. 

3-The Factor (7/5): This colt knows only one way to run: flat out on the lead.  For some horses the inability to rate can be a detriment, but that's not the case at this point with The Factor.  He completely dominated the Rebel Stakes in his last start and is once again facing a field without any colts that can seriously match his speed.

4-Brethren (10/1): There's not a whole else you can say about his Tampa Bay Derby performance other than ‘bad, bad, bad'.  After a promising beginning to his sophomore season in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, Brethren threw in an absolute clunker when losing to Watch Me Go in the Tampa Derby at odds of 1/2  That race looks even weaker now after Watch Me Go lost by 17 lengths in the Illinois Derby against a pretty weak field.  It's hard to like Brethren when you consider those facts.

5-Sway Away (6/1): Another son of Afleet Alex, this one went off at odds of 2/1 in the Rebel and then promptly lost to The Factor by 9 ¼ lengths.  In the Rebel, Sway Away had a tooth knocked out at the start of the race after smacking into the gate.  I don't have a clue if that caused his poor performance in the Rebel or if it would have made a difference in his finishing position, but I doubt it helped.

1-Caleb's Posse (10/1): Finished second to The Factor in the Rebel after finishing sixth in the G3-Southwest in late February.  Like many of the colts in this race, Caleb's Posse prefers to do his running from the back of the pack, a running style that will require a lot of effort in order to catch The Factor in the stretch.

7-Truman's Commander (30/1): If you've been following much of the Kentucky Derby prep races this spring you'll have noticed that recent maiden winners have done quite well when jumping up to the graded level for the first time.  Part of that is due to what appears to be a thin crop of three-year-olds, but it's still something we have to consider when evaluating horses fitting that profile. 

Truman's Commander broke his maiden on March 6^th after blowing away a Maiden Special Weight field by six lengths.  It's tough to know how he'll fit in with this group but trainer Nick Zito doesn't usually just throw them to the wolves if he doesn't think they are ready.

1a-Alternation (10/1): He was supposed to run in the Rebel until he freaked out in the gate and had to be scratched at the last moment.  Alternation won a nice allowance race back on Feb. 21^st and defeated Elite Alex in a similar race on Jan. 15^th (although Elite Alex had a ton of trouble in that race).  Like many in this field, he certainly has a chance to run well but might not be ready to take down a horse as talented as The Factor.

9-Dance City (15/1): This colt is one of the few entries in this field that possesses the speed to attempt to run with The Factor in the early stages of this race.  Problem is, the horses he's run against in his last two races are nowhere near as good as The Factor and it's highly likely that this colt is going to be on fumes by the time the field hits the top of the stretch.

10-Archarcharch (12/1): Won the G3-Southwest Stakes on Feb. 21^st and then missed out on second in the Rebel by a neck at the wire.  He's run well at Oaklawn all meet long but you get the sense that his Southwest and Rebel performances were probably the best he's got at this point.  However, his stalking running style gives him a bit of an advantage over the closers in this field and he may be able to get into the top 3 mix one more time.  Archarcharch might not make a great ‘win' bet but he definitely should be on exacta and trifecta tickets.

11-J P's Gusto (15/1): This colt has run a ‘bad' race only two times in his career: the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the Rebel Stakes.  After a poor performance at the Breeders' Cup he responded with a solid second place effort to Comma to the Top in the CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park.  (Comma to the Top finished second in last weekend's Santa Anita Derby.)  If J P's Gusto can bounce back from his poor Rebel effort the way he did after his performance in the Juvenile, he'll have a shot.  But he's going to need to bounce back AND improve off his previous career best to have a shot to win.

12-J W Blue (30/1): Finished well back in the Rebel and is another colt that is going to try and win this race from the back of the pace, not an easy task.  If the race falls apart in the stretch he'll probably have a shot, but if things stay formful he appears unlikely to seriously challenge for the win.

13-Saratoga Red (30/1): He didn't run that bad when finishing fourth to The Factor in the Rebel in what was his first start after breaking his maiden and only the second start of his career.  If he can improve off of that effort, perhaps he can get into the mix.  However, he's got the same problem in this race as he had in the last one: he's going to have to chase The Factor in the early stages.  That might be enough in its own right to cause him to give up in the stretch.

The Pick

I was skeptical of the ability of The Factor to get two-turns prior to the Rebel but I was clearly proven wrong in that race.  If we could be guaranteed that a couple of other horses will challenge The Factor in the early stages I'd feel confident in picking against him in this spot.  Unfortunately, it's hard to find colts that can seriously challenge for the lead against this speedball. 

The Factor will likely go to post at very short odds so we're going to have to look elsewhere in order to find some value.  Sway Away was bet hard in the Rebel but that dismal performance might be enough to push him into the 5/1 to 6/1 range in the Arkansas Derby.  I'd like something in the neighborhood of 6/1 before I'd rush to the betting windows.