The BUST-O-METER is back again to break down our top 15 draft bust risks. The series of articles will look at two prospects per week breaking down why I feel they have a high potential for busting. Many factors played into my ranking including potential draft position. The draft position is very important because if they are selected high than what their production warrants it puts them at a higher likely hood of busting. These articles always bring a ton of feedback and are highly controversial which is what makes them so fun.
For a reference, I like to classify a bust as someone that doesn't live up to their draft position. This means that if a player is selected #1 overall I expect him to be a dominate player in the league. I also take into consideration what position the player is projected to play in the NFL. For example, if someone is selected in the top 10 and is projected as a rush 3-4 linebacker I expect to see a high sack total. Of course, there are many other factors that are specific for each player so check out the rest of the article after the JUMP.
Also don't forget to stop by our Scouting Reports page to get an in-depth look at each prospect.
BUST-O-METER: 8 out of 10
Projected Draft Range: 2nd- 4th Round
Thoughts: Back to back Nevada players show up on our BUST-O-METER list but it shows the school is actually producing buzz-worthy talent. Dontay Moch is a very interesting prospect because he brings a lot of different things to the table. He had a successful career at Nevada and was a major part of the schools emergence as a successful football program. Moch has a skill set that many NFL teams covet which makes him someone we all need to pay close attention to. During his career at Nevada, Moch tallied 62.5 tackles for loss and 30 quarterback sacks. These numbers show that Moch excels at creating pressure in the backfield. His recent workouts have created a lot of buzz in that Moch ran a stellar 40 time. His 4.4 second 40 has many evaluators projecting him as a someone that can wreak havoc in the offensive backfield.
While Moch possesses excellent physical abilities there are some question marks surrounding his NFL position. At 6'1 248lbs, Moch lacks the size and bulk to line up at the defensive end position. He doesn't show good run stuffing ability and will be exploited on running downs. While at Nevada, Moch mainly played with his hand in the dirt which makes evaluating him as a linebacker purely speculative. Lacking a true position means that Moch will likely be forced to learn new techniques. Moch's go to pass rush move is using his speed around the edge. He didn't show a wide array of counter moves which he will need to consistently create pressure in the NFL.
Someone is going to fall in love with Moch's speed and athletic ability. This will likely lead to an overdrafting which raises his bust potential. The ability is present for Moch to succeed but he needs to land on a team that will find creative ways to use his talents.