Who's the Single Best Bet to Reach the Playoffs?

Would you believe the Boston Red Sox?

Seriously.

The third-place Boston Red Sox, who through 43 games have been outscored, are currently rated by Baseball Prospectus as the single best bet to reach the playoffs, with an 83-percent chance.

I'm not saying the odds are wrong. Just that they're odd, given all that's gone before. Well, before today and since Opening Day morning.

Anyway, according to BP there are seven teams with better-than-50/50 chances of earning berths for the championship tournament. Which of them do you think has the best chance?

(As always, bonus points for showing your work in the comments.)

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