If the 2012 NFL draft goes the way most think it will, the Indianapolis Colts will select Andrew Luck No. 1, the Washington Redskins will select Robert Griffin III No. 2 and the Minnesota Vikings will take Matt Kalil with the third pick.
The first two picks seem pretty well set in stone and the majority of people believe the Vikings will indeed end up taking Kalil at No. 3. But not everyone thinks the Vikings take Kalil. ESPN's Adam Schefter noted in a mailbag piece that he thinks the Vikings end up passing on Kalil.
The key to that would be Minnesota passing on Kalil, which I happen to believe the Vikings will. I'm in the minority there, and the Vikings are still deciding what to do, but I don't think Kalil is the lock that others do -- even if Minnesota stays at No. 3.
I'm not sure who the target woud be at No. 3 if it's not Kalil. Ryan Tannehill doesn't make sense with the Christian Ponder pick last year. Neither does Trent Richardson with Adrian Peterson in house. Maybe a cornerback, like Morris Claiborne, considering the Vikings are in need of an upgrade there. But is Claiborne good enough to pass on a franchise left tackle like Kalil? There's an argument there but ultimately the Vikings best pick would be Kalil.
If the Vikings don't take Kalil at No. 3 then it's possible he falls all the way to the Rams sixth pick. And if the Rams are on the clock and both Kalil and Trent Richardson are on the board, that's a heck of a decision they'll have to make.
SB Nation recently took a look at all the options for the Vikings with the third pick. Absent a trade down, Kalil still looks like the best pick.