SB Nation From The Bettor's Perspective
The Super Bowl's fast approaching, and as the Patriots and Giants get ready to square off, Las Vegas has its eyes on Tom Brady as the game's MVP. All content comes courtesy of OddsShark.com.
Feb 3, 2012 - If the oddsmakers are right, Joe Montana will be joined Sunday night atop his perch as the NFL’s only three-time Super Bowl MVP. That’s because Tom Brady is a big favorite at most shops tracked by OddsShark.com to win his third MVP award in the 2012 Super Bowl against the New York Giants.
Handsome Tom is 7/5 and sits atop the Super Bowl MVP odds list. He is followed by the man who beat him four years ago, Eli Manning at +9/4. (That means a $7 profit for every $5 wagered on Brady and $9 for every $4 wagered on Eli).
They are not the only former MVPs in the game, as Super Bowl 39 MVP Deion Branch is back in a New England Patriots uniform and a 40/1 longshot bet to win the award.
The MVP is almost always won by a QB although wide receivers have won three of the past seven after not claiming one since Jerry Rice way back in Super Bowl 23. (We aren’t counting Desmond Howard’s MVP performance as a combined WR/return man since he did most of his damage in Super Bowl 31 as a returner).
Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward and Branch were the surprise MVP winners in those WR seasons. The highest odds for any receiver this year is Rob Gronkowski who opened at +7/1 but is now 12/1. The best odds for a receiver is New York Giant Victor Cruz, a big-play specialist at 8/1.
Wes Welker and Hakeem Nicks are each 12/1, the same odds as Gronkowski at one shop that offers more than 500 fun props.
Four of the past five winners were QBs, hence the low odds on them. If you are wondering why no mention of running backs, it’s because they almost never win.
Ahmad Bradshaw figures to get plenty of touches and Benjarvus Green-Ellis should get the red-zone attention and has never fumbled as a Patriot. They are 20/1 and 25/1 respectively.
The last RB to win was Terrell Davis for the Broncos at Super Bowl 32. Since 1985 only Emmitt Smith in Dallas and OJ Anderson for the Giants have won.
With the pass-happy attacks of both teams, it’s hard to imagine a running back earning the award.
Defensive players actually win the award more often than you think and at huge longshot odds, players like Jason Pierre-Paul are worth a look (the Giants DE is 25/1 at Bovada, but much higher at other shops).
Unlike past years, the Super Bowl MVP is not one of the questions in the Super Bowl prop contest at Proper Bowl. The game asks 25 multiple-choice questions and rewards the winners with cash prizes (up to $3,500 in total).
For matchup stats, trends and live Super Bowl 46 odds, check out SBNation’s lines partner Odds Shark.
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