A few notes: I usually don't include trades, but I've included one here. St. Louis trades away its pick to Washington. I think that either St. Louis or Minnesota will do this (I expect Miami and Seattle to vie for RG3 as well), and St. Louis seems like the likelier candidate due to 1) its higher pick and 2) its more comprehensive needs across the board. What they'll trade to get the pick is subject to speculation, but a second round pick and next year's first round pick seems more than fair to move up 4 spots. Also, there are two ties where a coin-flip will determine draft order (Carolina/Miami and Kansas City/Seattle): reality may differ from my own coin-flip, naturally.
Thoughts and comments are always welcome.
1. Indianapolis Colts
Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
Yes, it's possible they could trade out the spot for a king's ransom. But I don't think there's a team willing to give up what
they'd ask, and the opportunity to take the franchise QB of their future will be too tempting.
TRADE: St. Louis Rams trade the #2 overall pick to the Washington Redskins for Washington's 1st round pick (#6 overall), 2nd round pick (#38 overall), and 2013 1st round pick.
2. Washington Redskins (via St. Louis Rams)
Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
St. Louis has a lot of holes to fill. If they can find a trade partner and gain extra picks, it's likely they'll trade out of the spot (the same applies to Minnesota). Washington needs a franchise QB more than any other team, and they're historically unafraid to make big moves.
3. Minnesota Vikings
Matt Kalil, OT, USC
The Vikes could go in several directions, but a foundation left tackle like Kalil is too tempting a prize to pass up.
4. Cleveland Browns
Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
With RG3 off the board, there's no QB to tempt the Browns away from Colt McCoy worth a #4 pick. Whoever ends up taking snaps in Cleveland, they need some weapons on offense in the worst way. Richardson might tempt them, but adding a real option at WR will probably be their best play.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
The consensus top target of the Bucs, he falls to us at #5 in this scenario. It's not guaranteed that this will happen- but if St. Louis or Minnesota trades down and the other team takes Kalil, our chances just got a lot better: Cleveland is unlikely to take another CB this high and has other key needs to address.
6. St. Louis Rams (via Washington Redskins)
Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
Martin's a good consolation prize in place of Kalil- the Rams need to move on from Jason Smith, and Martin projects as a long term quality left tackle.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars
Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina
Jeffery's draft stock has dropped a bit this year, but the combine will likely send him moving upwards again. Jacksonville needs new receivers in the worst way possible.
8. Carolina Panthers
Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
The Panthers could also opt to upgrade the O-line, but their pass defense has been major weakness when they play teams that aren't the 2011 Bucs. Kirkpatrick at Carolina and Claiborne at Tampa Bay could set up a long-term rivalry between the two.
9. Miami Dolphins
David DeCastro, G, Stanford
Riley Reiff or Courtney Upshaw are other prospects that would make sense for Miami (assuming they don't beat Washington in the trade up for RG3), but they need a solid interior lineman and DeCastro is a phenomenal prospect.
10. Buffalo Bills
Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama
The Bills need pass rush in the worst way. Upshaw would help solidify their 3-4 scheme.
11. Kansas City Chiefs
Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
O-line is the Chiefs' most glaring weakness and Reiff is an excellent value at #11.
12. Seattle Seahawks
Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
Coples is a versatile pass rusher who could provide an immediate upgrade for Seattle's front four.
13. Arizona Cardinals
Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College
Stewart Bradley is likely to be cut this offseason, and Kuechly could provide an instant upgrade and a huge value at #13 as BPA.
14. Dallas Cowboys
Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska
Dallas needs secondary help in the worst way and Dennard has been steadily rising up draft boards all season long- it's no longer a stretch to project him in the top 15.
15. Philadelphia Eagles
Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
DeSean Jackson's career in Philadelphia is over, and the Eagles will be looking for a new receiver. Floyd would be a perfect fit. Zach Brown or Vontaze Burfict would be other options if the Eagles decide to address their woeful situation at linebacker first.
16. New York Jets
Whitney Mercilus, DE/OLB, Illinois
The Jets need help with their pass rush and Mercilus (what a name!) has the size and speed to be an excellent 3-4 OLB.
17. Cincinnati Bengals (via Oakland Raiders)
Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
Isn't it strange to see Cincy picking this late? And this isnt even their position, it's the pick they got from Oakland! Jenkins may have serious off-the-field issues, but Cincinnati has traditionally tolerated antics in return for solid play. Jenkins has tremendous talent and the Bengals need a replacement for the departed Jonathan Joseph.
18. San Diego Chargers
Cordy Glenn, OT/G, Georgia
San Diego's O-line is in tatters, with guard Kris Dielman considering retirement, left tackle Marcus McNeill suffering consistent injuries and possibly requiring neck surgery this offseason, and center Nick Hardwick set to be a free agent. Glenn is the kind of versatile lineman the Chargers could really use right now, capable of playing several positions including left tackle.
19. Chicago Bears
Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina
The Bears could use some help generating pass rush and Israel Idonije is a free agent this season. Ingram is an excellent needs/value pick for Chicago here.
20. Tennessee Titans
Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin
The Titans' O-line was bad all season long. Drafting Konz would give Tennessee a top talent in the middle and would allow them to shift Eugene Amano to left guard, effectively upgrading both positions.
21. Denver Broncos
Devon Still, DT, Penn State
Though there's a possibility that Elway and Fox will gamble on drafting a non-Tebow QB or take Richardson, Still makes more sense overall. They need an interior force on their D-line and Still projects well to that role.
22. New York Giants
Vontaze Burfict, ILB, Arizona Stat
The Giants always go for BVA, Burfict falls down draft boards due to disappointing senior season, and New York coincidentally needs linebackers badly. Zach Brown or Trent Richardson are other viable options here.
23. Cincinnati Bengals
Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
I could very easily be entirely off about how far Richardson will fall, but there's was no team so far that clearly needed a top RB over all other needs (Denver and New York were the closest I came before here). Adding Richardson to an offense that already features Andy Dalton and A.J.Green could keep the Bengals in contention for a long time.
24. Detroit Lions
Barrett Jones, OT, Alabama
The Lions need help at left tackle- Jones could be the solution
25. Cleveland Browns (via Atlanta Falcons)
Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma
If Jones declares, Cleveland will take a gamble on him if he falls to their second first round pick.
26. Houston Texans
Alameda Ta'amu, NT, Washington
Shaun Cody has been serviceable for Houston, but the Texans need a long-term true nose tackle to serve as the core of their D-line. Ta'amu would be an excellent match for them with a good needs-value ratio.
27. Pittsburgh Steelers
Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama
With Farrier possibly retiring, the Steelers need to address ILB. Hightower is a good value here and shouldn't jar too much with their mindset of BVA.
28. San Francisco 49ers
Chase Minnifield, CB, Virginia
CB is arguably San Francisco's biggest need and Minnifield is a good value late in the first round.
29. New England Patriots
Brandon Jenkins, DE/OLB, Florida State
New England is so tough to mock for, because they almost inevitably trade away one of their top picks for future picks. With that porous secondary I could easily see them taking Stephon Gilmore, T.J. McDonald, or Mark Barron. But Jenkins is too big a talent and the pass rush too much of a liability for the Patriots to pass on taking him. Until they trade away the pick, of course.
30. New England Patriots (via New Orleans Saints)
Mark Barron, S, Alabama
But wait! New England gets two picks in a row. Patrick Chung can't do it alone- look for New England to take a safety early in this draft.
31. Baltimore Ravens
Nick Perry, DE/OLB, USC
The Ravens draft for BVA and Perry has great upside. Baltimore could use a complement for Suggs.
32. Green Bay Packers
Vinny Curry, DE/OLB, Marshall
Eric Walden has been inconsistent and Matthews has been double-teamed, limiting his effectiveness. Green Bay could really use another playmaking OLB to line up across from him, and Curry would fit that bill nicely.