Advanced NFL power rankings: Everyone loves the Ravens

This is a crazy year in the NFL. Once you think you know which teams are great and which aren't, they go and surprise you the next week. The NFC West -- the league's laughingstock a year ago -- has become the powerhouse division, with the emergence of the Arizona Cardinals and Seahawks. The AFC West is barely holding on as not the worst division in the league, but they aren't far off.

The story this week appears to be the Minnesota Vikings, again. In the last two weeks, they've risen nearly 13 spots in the rankings, including another 4.6 spots again this week.

One reason I like to compare the Subjective and Objective rankings: the objective rankings tend to be slow to react to a team’s performance, and the Subjective Rankings tend to react quicker. So say a team is doing really well (or poorly), the Subjective Rankings tend to move quicker than the Objective. This can lead to peaks and valleys in a team's subjective rankings that the objective rankings tend to even out.

Other times, however, you’ll have subjective rankings that are way off base because of whatever pre-conceived notions or hope pundits may have about a team. Sometimes you’ll get teams that pundits love to pile on (the Dolphins or Browns come to mind this year), so any time they lose, pundits like to say “well we were right about them being terrible!” The inverse can be true too where pundits want a particular team to do well so badly that any time they win, “we were right, this team is great!” (the Cowboys come to mind, as do the Rams and Steelers). For whatever reason, there has been so much hope for St. Louis coming from the various media outlets that they'll hang on to every win.

Division Averages

Stock Rising

Stock Falling

Subjective Average

One thing I should point out about the subjective rankings this week: I'm not including SportingNews in the rankings until they change their format. They used to be like every other website out there and list their rankings as one nice long page. Not this week. This week they've decided to turn their power rankings into a 34-page slideshow. Awful, right? As soon as they go back to the old format that doesn't require 34 mouse clicks (literally), then I'll include them again.

	Subjective
Texans	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		1.000		0.091
Falcons	2	2	2	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2		2.091		-0.091
49ers	4	3	4	2	4	4	3	3	4	3	3		3.364		0.454
Ravens	3	4	5	4	3	3	4	4	3	4	4		3.727		-0.454
Cardinals	5	5	3	11	5	5	5	5	6	7	5		5.636		1.091
Patriots	6	9	7	5	6	6	6	6	9	5	6		6.455		1.818
Eagles	7	6	8	8	8	9	7	8	7	11	8		7.909		3.364
Packers	8	10	14	6	7	7	8	7	8	6	7		8.000		-0.636
Bears	9	7	9	9	9	8	10	11	5	8	9		8.546		1.272
Giants	10	11	11	7	10	10	9	9	14	9	11		10.091		-4.545
Chargers	11	12	10	13	13	14	13	10	12	10	10		11.636		2.819
Bengals	12	8	6	16	12	13	12	14	10	13	12		11.636		1.910
Broncos	13	13	16	12	14	11	11	13	15	12	13		13.000		2.091
Vikings	14	14	13	21	11	12	16	16	11	16	14		14.364		4.636
Steelers	16	16	12	10	18	18	14	15	13	14	15		14.636		-0.909
Cowboys	15	15	17	14	17	19	15	12	17	15	16		15.636		-5.272
Seahawks	17	19	15	18	16	16	17	17	16	18	17		16.909		-5.091
Redskins	18	17	19	20	19	20	18	18	18	17	18		18.364		3.545
Rams	19	18	18	24	15	15	19	23	22	21	19		19.364		7.000
Bills	21	20	20	22	21	17	20	19	19	20	20		19.909		-1.636
Lions	20	21	24	15	22	25	22	20	20	19	21		20.818		-2.000
Jets	23	27	22	23	20	22	21	21	21	24	23		22.455		-5.182
Buccaneers	22	22	26	25	23	23	23	22	23	23	24		23.273		-1.000
Panthers	24	23	29	19	24	21	24	24	26	22	22		23.455		1.000
Titans	25	25	23	27	30	24	27	26	25	27	29		26.182		-1.818
Dolphins	26	26	30	26	25	30	25	25	27	25	25		26.364		2.636
Saints	28	24	31	17	27	28	26	28	28	29	26		26.546		0.363
Chiefs	27	28	25	28	26	27	28	27	29	26	27		27.091		-2.636
Raiders	29	30	21	31	31	31	29	29	31	28	28		28.909		-3.182
Colts	31	29	28	30	29	26	30	31	24	31	31		29.091		0.727
Jaguars	30	31	27	32	28	29	31	30	30	30	30		29.818		-0.454
Browns	32	32	32	29	32	32	32	32	32	32	32		31.727		0.091

Observations:

• What wasn't a unanimous consensus last week has become just that: the Houston Texans are your (subjectively) unanimous number-one team.
• Amusing to me that the Steelers dropped an average of one whole spot, on their bye week. Guess they had to make room for a better team.
• For the most part, NFL.com and AP are the closest to the overall consensus. That makes sense though, seeing as how both of their rankings are made up by a consensus vote.
• Oh hey, look at the Dolphins getting a little respect. Even though they lost this week, it was a close loss, to the top-5 Cardinals, so of course the rise in the rankings.
• USA Today has the Saints at No. 17. As you'll see shortly, that's ridiculous.
• Neat, an exact tie! The Chargers and Bengals are tied at 11.636. Kind of impressive that 11 sources end up giving the same average.

Subjective Standard Deviation

	Subjective
Texans	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		0.000		-0.288
Falcons	2	2	2	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2		0.288		-0.138
Ravens	3	4	5	4	3	3	4	4	3	4	4		0.617		-0.133
49ers	4	3	4	2	4	4	3	3	4	3	3		0.643		0.257
Browns	32	32	32	29	32	32	32	32	32	32	32		0.862		0.287
Redskins	18	17	19	20	19	20	18	18	18	17	18		0.979		-0.104
Chiefs	27	28	25	28	26	27	28	27	29	26	27		1.083		-0.642
Seahawks	17	19	15	18	16	16	17	17	16	18	17		1.083		-1.707
Buccaneers	22	22	26	25	23	23	23	22	23	23	24		1.213		-0.497
Bills	21	20	20	22	21	17	20	19	19	20	20		1.240		-0.523
Eagles	7	6	8	8	8	9	7	8	7	11	8		1.240		-1.286
Patriots	6	9	7	5	6	6	6	6	9	5	6		1.305		-0.115
Jaguars	30	31	27	32	28	29	31	30	30	30	30		1.336		-0.096
Chargers	11	12	10	13	13	14	13	10	12	10	10		1.432		-0.956
Broncos	13	13	16	12	14	11	11	13	15	12	13		1.477		-0.544
Bears	9	7	9	9	9	8	10	11	5	8	9		1.499		-0.028
Giants	10	11	11	7	10	10	9	9	14	9	11		1.676		0.785
Cowboys	15	15	17	14	17	19	15	12	17	15	16		1.772		-0.455
Dolphins	26	26	30	26	25	30	25	25	27	25	25		1.823		0.409
Jets	23	27	22	23	20	22	21	21	21	24	23		1.827		0.344
Cardinals	5	5	3	11	5	5	5	5	6	7	5		1.920		-0.496
Titans	25	25	23	27	30	24	27	26	25	27	29		1.992		0.169
Packers	8	10	14	6	7	7	8	7	8	6	7		2.174		-0.695
Colts	31	29	28	30	29	26	30	31	24	31	31		2.193		0.112
Steelers	16	16	12	10	18	18	14	15	13	14	15		2.307		0.493
Panthers	24	23	29	19	24	21	24	24	26	22	22		2.500		-0.209
Lions	20	21	24	15	22	25	22	20	20	19	21		2.516		-0.463
Bengals	12	8	6	16	12	13	12	14	10	13	12		2.638		0.490
Vikings	14	14	13	21	11	12	16	16	11	16	14		2.739		0.042
Raiders	29	30	21	31	31	31	29	29	31	28	28		2.745		-0.273
Rams	19	18	18	24	15	15	19	23	22	21	19		2.805		0.838
Saints	28	24	31	17	27	28	26	28	28	29	26		3.474		-0.398

Observations:

• No surprise here that the five lowest Standard Deviation are the five teams closest to the top and bottom. It's a flaw with using just straight Standard Deviation and not normalizing it at all.
• On the whole, the overall Standard Deviation dropped this week, teams are settling in more and more and a consensus across the board is slowly developing.
• Even though the Chargers and Bengals were exactly tied in the Subjective Average at 11.636, the Bengals are in the bottom five as far as ranking consistency. Their ranking swings anywhere from sixth to 16th!
• USA Today is throwing a wrench in the rankings for the Rams, Saints and Vikings. Take USA Today out of the Saints' rankings and their Standard Deviation drops to 1.9.

Objective Average

	Objective
Texans	4	1	1	1	6	1	1		2.143		3.107
Falcons	2	2	3	5	5	6	2		3.571		-1.071
Ravens	5	5	4	4	4	5	3		4.286		-0.536
Patriots	1	8	5	2	11	2	6		5.000		1.500
49ers	6	7	7	3	7	3	7		5.714		2.786
Bears	8	9	9	7	8	8	5		7.714		5.286
Cardinals	22	17	2	6	1	4	4		8.000		-0.250
Broncos	7	3	11	10	15	7	9		8.857		5.393
Vikings	10	13	10	13	3	10	8		9.571		4.679
Eagles	12	6	8	15	2	15	12		10.000		0.250
Packers	3	15	14	8	16	12	10		11.143		-0.893
Giants	9	10	17	9	18	11	11		12.143		-3.393
Chargers	17	16	12	11	9	16	13		13.429		0.821
Seahawks	11	26	13	14	10	9	14		13.857		-5.857
Bengals	20	12	6	16	13	13	18		14.000		4.250
Dolphins	13	11	22	20	20	14	20		17.143		3.107
Cowboys	21	14	20	18	12	21	23		18.429		-6.679
Steelers	14	25	23	12	21	19	17		18.714		-2.714
Bills	19	20	24	21	22	27	19		21.714		-8.214
Lions	18	18	26	22	25	20	24		21.857		-0.107
Redskins	23	30	21	17	28	18	16		21.857		3.143
Jets	24	24	18	23	14	25	28		22.286		-10.786
Rams	31	23	16	29	26	17	15		22.429		8.321
Panthers	16	4	31	28	31	28	21		22.714		3.786
Colts	26	29	19	25	17	26	27		24.143		3.357
Jaguars	29	28	15	30	23	24	29		25.429		-1.679
Titans	28	19	25	27	19	30	30		25.429		-0.179
Browns	27	21	28	26	29	23	26		25.714		4.536
Buccaneers	25	31	30	24	30	22	22		26.286		-2.036
Saints	15	32	32	19	32	29	25		26.286		-1.536
Raiders	30	22	27	32	24	31	31		28.143		-3.143
Chiefs	32	27	29	31	27	32	32		30.000		-5.250

Observations:

• You'll notice I've added a few more objective sites. Making a return this week is Team Efficiency. New this week are: Pro Football Reference and Cold Hard Football Facts.
• Because the sources have changed again this week, comparing to last week's rankings isn't the most accurate yet.
• When using objective rankings like this, it's helpful to look at the outliers. Look at Football Outsiders and Team Efficiency ranking the Cardinals. Or Team Efficiency's ranking for the Panthers. Interesting.
• Sharp delineation from the Bengals on down.
• Jets and Bills are plummeting.
• The bottom 4 of this list consists of 2 teams each from the AFC West and NFC South.

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective
Ravens	5	5	4	4	4	5	3		0.700		-1.465
Bears	8	9	9	7	8	8	5		1.278		-3.570
Falcons	2	2	3	5	5	6	2		1.591		0.473
49ers	6	7	7	3	7	3	7		1.750		0.092
Texans	4	1	1	1	6	1	1		1.884		-0.977
Chiefs	32	27	29	31	27	32	32		2.138		-1.629
Browns	27	21	28	26	29	23	26		2.603		1.124
Bills	19	20	24	21	22	27	19		2.711		-0.643
Chargers	17	16	12	11	9	16	13		2.770		-1.993
Lions	18	18	26	22	25	20	24		3.044		-1.613
Vikings	10	13	10	13	3	10	8		3.156		-2.942
Patriots	1	8	5	2	11	2	6		3.381		-1.934
Broncos	7	3	11	10	15	7	9		3.482		-0.285
Giants	9	10	17	9	18	11	11		3.482		0.994
Raiders	30	22	27	32	24	31	31		3.603		1.053
Buccaneers	25	31	30	24	30	22	22		3.653		2.354
Cowboys	21	14	20	18	12	21	23		3.736		0.391
Dolphins	13	11	22	20	20	14	20		4.015		2.925
Colts	26	29	19	25	17	26	27		4.086		2.586
Packers	3	15	14	8	16	12	10		4.223		0.077
Bengals	20	12	6	16	13	13	18		4.243		-0.874
Steelers	14	25	23	12	21	19	17		4.366		-0.377
Jets	24	24	18	23	14	25	28		4.366		3.866
Titans	28	19	25	27	19	30	30		4.371		2.451
Eagles	12	6	8	15	2	15	12		4.504		-0.465
Jaguars	29	28	15	30	23	24	29		4.924		0.901
Redskins	23	30	21	17	28	18	16		5.055		0.812
Seahawks	11	26	13	14	10	9	14		5.276		-1.243
Rams	31	23	16	29	26	17	15		6.044		4.745
Saints	15	32	32	19	32	29	25		6.408		-1.970
Cardinals	22	17	2	6	1	4	4		7.540		-1.983
Panthers	16	4	31	28	31	28	21		9.192		4.167

Observations:

• The Ravens have the lowest Standard Deviation on the Objective graphs, and I'll show you why that's noteworthy in a moment.
• The Chiefs are not only at the bottom of the list, but they're there consistently. Even though they beat the Saints, they've not played well at all this year. Because each objective ranking uses a different model to come up with its rankings, usually when a consensus develops, it's pretty spot-on.
• Again, the NFC is the more difficult to rank conference as they account for seven of the eight least-consistently-ranked teams.

Overall Average

	Subj vs Obj
Texans	1.000	2.143		1.571		1.599
Falcons	2.091	3.571		2.831		-0.581
Ravens	3.727	4.286		4.007		-0.496
49ers	3.364	5.714		4.539		1.620
Patriots	6.455	5.000		5.727		1.659
Cardinals	5.636	8.000		6.818		0.421
Bears	8.546	7.714		8.130		3.279
Eagles	7.909	10.000		8.955		1.806
Packers	8.000	11.143		9.571		-0.764
Broncos	13.000	8.857		10.929		3.741
Giants	10.091	12.143		11.117		-3.969
Vikings	14.364	9.571		11.968		4.657
Chargers	11.636	13.429		12.533		1.819
Bengals	11.636	14.000		12.818		3.080
Seahawks	16.909	13.857		15.383		-5.474
Steelers	14.636	18.714		16.675		-1.811
Cowboys	15.636	18.429		17.033		-5.976
Redskins	18.364	21.857		20.110		3.345
Bills	19.909	21.714		20.812		-4.926
Rams	19.364	22.429		20.896		7.661
Lions	20.818	21.857		21.338		-1.054
Dolphins	26.364	17.143		21.753		2.872
Jets	22.455	22.286		22.370		-7.984
Panthers	23.455	22.714		23.084		2.393
Buccaneers	23.273	26.286		24.779		-1.518
Titans	26.182	25.429		25.805		-0.998
Saints	26.546	26.286		26.416		-0.586
Colts	29.091	24.143		26.617		2.042
Jaguars	29.818	25.429		27.623		-1.066
Raiders	28.909	28.143		28.526		-3.162
Chiefs	27.091	30.000		28.545		-3.943
Browns	31.727	25.714		28.721		2.313

Observations:

• Once you factor in both sets of sources, the Texans are still far-and-away the best team in the NFL right now.
• All the hope and hype in Dallas and New York (Jets) this year is quickly dying.
• The Seahawks are kind of on their own little island in the middle of the rankings, with the Steelers and Cowboys kind of nearby, but then everyone else is either well above or well below them.
• Again this week are distinct clusters of teams. 1-6, 8-12, 20-23, and so-on.

Overall Standard Deviation

	Subj vs Obj
Ravens	3.727	4.286		0.705		-0.601
Falcons	2.091	3.571		1.247		0.529
Texans	1.000	2.143		1.301		-1.071
Bears	8.546	7.714		1.474		-1.681
49ers	3.364	5.714		1.660		-0.605
Chiefs	27.091	30.000		2.123		-0.323
Bills	19.909	21.714		2.138		-0.982
Chargers	11.636	13.429		2.236		-0.964
Patriots	6.455	5.000		2.447		-0.656
Giants	10.091	12.143		2.726		0.667
Lions	20.818	21.857		2.780		-0.958
Buccaneers	23.273	26.286		2.872		1.039
Cowboys	15.636	18.429		3.033		0.388
Jets	22.455	22.286		3.076		0.213
Raiders	28.909	28.143		3.129		0.211
Eagles	7.909	10.000		3.141		-0.245
Titans	26.182	25.429		3.160		1.270
Broncos	13.000	8.857		3.182		0.552
Browns	31.727	25.714		3.418		2.275
Packers	8.000	11.143		3.489		-0.011
Bengals	11.636	14.000		3.547		-0.286
Redskins	18.364	21.857		3.664		0.920
Seahawks	16.909	13.857		3.709		-0.751
Vikings	14.364	9.571		3.731		-0.703
Steelers	14.636	18.714		3.823		0.753
Jaguars	29.818	25.429		3.886		0.424
Colts	29.091	24.143		3.905		1.708
Rams	19.364	22.429		4.609		1.954
Saints	26.546	26.286		4.833		-0.701
Cardinals	5.636	8.000		5.069		-0.285
Dolphins	26.364	17.143		5.339		1.246
Panthers	23.455	22.714		6.067		2.471

Observations:

• The Ravens are again the most consistently-ranked team, overall. Significantly more consistent than the Falcons or Texans.
• Overall, things are a bit more balanced as far as conference is concerned. Now the NFC and AFC each have four of the eight least-consistent rankings.
• Even though their average Subjective and Objective rankings are rather similar, the Panthers rankings are all over the board. Similar case with Arizona.

Difference in Averages

	Subj vs Obj
Steelers	14.636	18.714		4.078		-1.805
Redskins	18.364	21.857		3.494		-0.403
Packers	8.000	11.143		3.143		-0.257
Rams	19.364	22.429		3.065		1.321
Buccaneers	23.273	26.286		3.013		-1.036
Chiefs	27.091	30.000		2.909		-2.613
Cowboys	15.636	18.429		2.792		-1.406
Bengals	11.636	14.000		2.364		2.341
Cardinals	5.636	8.000		2.364		-1.341
49ers	3.364	5.714		2.351		2.331
Eagles	7.909	10.000		2.091		-3.114
Giants	10.091	12.143		2.052		1.153
Bills	19.909	21.714		1.805		-6.578
Chargers	11.636	13.429		1.792		-1.997
Falcons	2.091	3.571		1.481		-0.981
Texans	1.000	2.143		1.143		3.016
Lions	20.818	21.857		1.039		1.893
Ravens	3.727	4.286		0.558		-0.081
Jets	22.455	22.286		-0.169		-5.604
Saints	26.546	26.286		-0.260		-1.899
Panthers	23.455	22.714		-0.740		2.786
Titans	26.182	25.429		-0.753		1.639
Raiders	28.909	28.143		-0.766		0.039
Bears	8.546	7.714		-0.831		4.013
Patriots	6.455	5.000		-1.455		-0.318
Seahawks	16.909	13.857		-3.052		-0.766
Broncos	13.000	8.857		-4.143		3.302
Jaguars	29.818	25.429		-4.390		-1.224
Vikings	14.364	9.571		-4.792		0.042
Colts	29.091	24.143		-4.948		2.630
Browns	31.727	25.714		-6.013		4.445
Dolphins	26.364	17.143		-9.221		0.471

Observations:

• Pittsburgh Steelers: not as good as people hope apparently. Or maybe they're actually better than they've been playing?
• The RGIII excitement is still keeping the Redskins buoyed.
• Remember me pointing out the Ravens' Standard Deviation being the lowest? Well look at their difference in averages. They're spot-on as a No. 4 team in the NFL across the board, they're that good and nearly everyone is in agreement.
• Even thought the Chiefs are ranked in the bottom-five subjectively, it seems to still be a bit too high.
• Ahh the Dolphins, everyone's favorite whipping-boy this year. Still can't get any respect.
• The Browns are actually playing much better than people want to believe.

Best Match-Up for Week 4

In the previous two weeks, we had teams playing each other that had rankings within 1 spot of each other. This week, not so much. There seems to be a little less parity this week and we'll see if it comes back next week.

Worst Match-Ups for Week 5

I'm going to stop calling it "Biggest Blowout Potential" and just go with "Worst Match-ups" now

Sources

• ESPN
• Fox
• CBS
• USA Today
• Sports Illustrated
• ProFootballTalk
• NFL.com
• Pro Football Weekly
• SB Nation
• Reddit
• Associated Press
• Football Outsiders
• Team Efficiency
• Team Rankings
• Sagarin
• BeatGraphs
• Pro Football Reference
• Cold Hard Football Facts