1. Ryan Tannehill: I believe Tannehill will be a first round pick, and feel this is a mistake. 16 career starts at Quarterback, and I really don't count his starts a WR. It's not the same as a DB who played CB as a fresh/soph, and then moved to safety. QB is the most important on a NFL team, and college football is the NFL's minor league. QBs need as much time (experience) in the minor leagues as possible. Cam Newton is the exception, not the only exception, but one of the very few exceptions to the Rule of 26-27-60 (helps predict NFL quarterback success or failure, based on -among other things- QB starts in college). Tannehill's ceiling is somewhere along the lines of Tony Romo/Jake Plummer, but his floor could be much lower.
Dan’s buddies at www.newerascouting.com begins their analysis of Wright like this :
"By today’s wide receiver standards, it is very rare to be less than six feet tall and a first-round draft pick. During the last decade, there were 41 wide receivers drafted in the first-round, and only six of those players were shorter than six feet. NFL scouts and coaches have an infatuation with height at the wide receiver position, and will usually give the edge to a taller wide receiver if he performs similarly in other areas."
Is this four-year starter worthy of being selected in the first round? They conclude yes, Wright "is worthy of being one of the rare first-round selections of a WR under six feet tall."
I study draft history and tendencies quite a bit, and I agree with their analysis, but not their conclusion.
IMO Kendall Wright will NOT be a first round draft choice.
Speaking of size...
Now, some NFL.com may have rounded up on a few, but every CB drafted in the first round since 2000 (that is as far back as I went) has been listed 5-10 or taller.
Jenkins is very, very close to that magic number, and additionally one could argue Brandon Flowers should have been drafted in the first.
I am not saying he can’t be a great player, I am just recognizing that the NFL does frequently follow sterotypes, and personally, I will continue to keep Jenkins outside of my 1st round.
4. Alfonzo Dennard: As I have mentioned here http://www.mockingthedraft.com/2012/1/20/2721318/for-those-about-to-mock-we-salute-you-2012-edition Last year, I stated that Brandon Harris was one of my 16 guaranteed to be drafted in the first round, ignoring his poor performance against the much larger Michael Floyd in the bowl game. This year Dennard was exposed in a similar fashion by the much larger Alshon Jeffery.
5. Mark Barron: Way before his double-hernia surgery, I have been preaching Barron as a high second, but not a first round pick. I have stated before that although "the NFL is looking for safeties capable of matching up against the Jimmy Smiths and Gronks of the modern NFL......Barron is not one of those safeties" Well coached, disciplined, and has played with and against alot of NFL quality players, but he just isn't the "freak" it takes to match up with Gronk n Jimmy.
6. Dontari Poe: It's not that I don't like Poe, as much as I like Alameda Ta'amu better, and If I had to get a NT, I would rather see if I could get Josh Chapman somewhere between picks 55 and 70, who played with a torn ACL for the last eight games of the 2011 season.
7. Luke Kuechly: Only once in the last 10 years has more than one ILB been a first round pick (except for position switches later in a career), and recently Rey Maualuga, James Laurinaitis, Paul Posluszny, and Brandon Spikes (among others) have all found themselves in the second round. For as great as Kuechly has been, Laurinaitis and Posluszny were nearly his equal. I don't believe I have seen a mock draft without Kuechly in the first round. I guess mine will ge the first?
8. Donta Hightower: Again, it is rare to see more than one ILB go in the first round, but more importantly, Hightower is slow. We have read this book before, and Brandon Spikes and Maualuga entered their senior years with a higher grade than Hightower.
Maybe I don't hate him more than you, since 65% of you said you would not spend a first or second round pick on him: http://www.mockingthedraft.com/2012/1/25/2731811/2012-senior-bowl-brandon-weeden-looks-sharp-but-does-it-matter Here was my quote: "lets take Chad Henne…..below average NFL QB, now lets send him back to college, replace Geno Smith at WVU with Chad Henne. The man might break every record there is"
It is almost an unfair advantage to have a 26-28 year old QB playing in college, his maturity/discipline coupled with one of the best offensive systems has lead me to doubt not only Weeden, but also....
10. Justin Blackmon: I called him the most overrated prospect in the draft, http://www.mockingthedraft.com/2012/1/17/2713736/most-overrated-draft-prospect-justin-blackmon since he was commonly mocked to be drafted by the Rams with the second pick. But I do feel like he is the best WR in THIS draft, just not in the same class as Fitzgerald, Calvin and Andre Johnson, or AJ Green and Julio. He is a very good player, however he is benefiting from the Dana Holgorson/Mike Gundy offense, and having a 28 year old quarterback.
Blackmon is the only one on my hate list that I still have as a first round pick, and I would take him in the top 12 for sure, perhaps top 6-10 if he runs faster than expected, but not top 5.