FanPost

Quality draft pick value post over at Cincyjungle


At Cincyjungle, there was a post that received little attention, but I thought some people here might enjoy it. Some guy named the "draft douche" wrote an article in which he charted his theory of draft value as totaling the number of starts per pick number. It's a pretty interesting chart, but obviously using games starts as a statistic is an imperfect measure. In that article, he references another system created by the "Harvard Sports Analysis Collective" and written by Kevin Meers, which weighs draft picks against a "career approximate value" which the only thing I can gain from the description is that it is very approximate. However, his sample size was huge, analyzing every pick in the first 7 rounds starting from 1980 to 2005. Finally, Cincyjungle's evilmonkey posted his own graph, which rated players according to the PF-Reference career approximate values. It looked similar to the Harvard numbers, though granted I don't know the difference between those two metrics, and I'm not aware of his sample size. I don't doubt that evilmonkey put a lot of work into it, but it simply has the least explanation. With it getting so little comments, I doubt I would have explained much either.

In the end, I will be interested to see how trades line up according to all of these different standards. Someone could also build another chart based on these values if any of them fit. I think most people on this blog are aware that late round picks are valued more by NFL personnel than they are by the current chart that is being used on this site. More than that, draft geeks love their late round picks, so them being weighty could prove to be more fun in future mocks.

5 more days!!

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