FanPost

Overrated/Underrated Draft Prospects: AFC South

Houston Texans:
Overrated: DeVier Posey
Underrated: Jared Crick
X-Factor: Whitney Mercilus
Analysis: Posey definitely has the skill set and talent to make it in the NFL. I also understand the position as Houston is looking for a compliment for Andre Johnson, but early in the 3rd round for Posey? That seemed like a reach for him. Jared Crick is a guy who has long been thought of by quite a few to be a 1st-round talent and also with a skill set very similar to that of a guy who is now his teammate in J.J. Watt. I don't know about 1st round as Crick's play did taper off some once Ndamukong Suh left, but I have no doubt this guy has legit 2nd round talent. He will be a perfect fit for the 3-4 defense Wade Phillips has implemented deep in the heart of Texas. I also really liked the selection of Miami (Ohio) guard Brandon Brooks. He's an excellent blocker who moves quite well for a guy of his stature. The X-Factor though is definitely Illinois' Whitney Mercilus. He was relatively quiet during his college career until breaking out in 2011 with 16 QB sacks. Adding a pass rusher of his caliber makes what is already a terrific young defense that much better. You can never have enough guys who can get after the QB. An undrafted free agent Houston got who I really like is Hebron Fangupo, the nose tackle prospect out of BYU. He's a big body who does a very nice job against the run. I'm a little surprised he wasn't at least drafted as a late round prospect.

Indianapolis Colts:
Overrated: Dwayne Allen
Underrated: Josh Chapman
X-Factor: Andrew Luck
Analysis: Another no duh on who the X-Factor is. Andrew Luck is the most hype and polished QB to come out of the college game since perhaps Peyton Manning. Those are the shoes Luck will have to attempt to fill. While I do expect him to be fantastic, Colt fans would be smart to not expect him to lead them back to the promised land in 2012. With that in mind though, when I look at Luck, I immediately think Aaron Rodgers with perhaps a slightly less stronger arm. His accuracy and intelligence are uncanny and while he won't remind you of Robert Griffin III, he does bring some underrated mobility to the table. The overrated pick came down to three players; Allen, T.Y. Hilton and Luck's college teammate Coby Fleener. Luck and Fleener bring over from Stanford with them. Whenever Luck needed that security blanket to throw to, Fleener was his man. I wouldn't expect that to change in the NFL now that they're together again. That eliminated Fleener. Then Hilton brings a dynamic game as a slot receiver and a potential return guy. He's someone I feel wasn't getting quite enough credit during the draft process, so I went with Allen. Nothing personal against Allen though... he's a pretty solid blocker who is also a good receiver. He and Fleener could make for quite a tight end duo in Indy, so it's not as though I dislike him. The underrated prospect is Chapman. How he made it to the top of the 5th round is beyond me. While he may not possess the flash/measureables of Dontari Poe or even Alameda Ta'amu... in my mind, he is the safest bet of any nose tackle prospect in this draft. I see a ton of similarities between him and a young Casey Hampton when Hampton came out of college from Texas. The most noteworthy UDFA here is Micah Pellerin, a cornerback out of Hampton. He could have been a late round pick.

Jacksonville Jaguars:
Overrated: Bryan Anger
Underrated: Ryan Davis
X-Factor: Justin Blackmon
Analysis: Anger was definitely the best punter available in this draft class, but a punter in the 3rd round? Really, Jags? With a team that has a whole bunch of needs, a punter on Day 2 is not a good idea at all. Heck, even if they were one of the best all-around teams in the NFL, I wouldn't have understood the pick. They could have tried waiting at least a couple rounds and still probably gotten Anger. Or they could have waited until the last round or perhaps signed Georgia's Drew Butler as an undrafted free agent. Special teams are important, don't get me wrong, but a punter in the 3rd round is just awful draft value. Okay, I'm finally done! The definite X-Factor of this class is Blackmon. They loved him so much in Jacksonville that they moved ahead of the Rams to ensure they got their man. Blaine Gabbert certainly could use the help. He'll have more options on the outside with Blackmon and ex-Dallas Cowboy Laurent Robinson. I decided to not go the obvious route with the underrated prospect which would have been Ohio State center Mike Brewster, who signed as an undrafted free agent. It also would have been somewhat easy to go with 5th round pick Brandon Marshall, a defensive end out of Nevada. Instead I went with Bethune-Cookman's Ryan Davis. Obviously he wasn't going to get a ton of press coming from a small school, but he was a playmaker who consistently got into the backfield with ease (39.5 TFL the last two years) while adding 12 QB sacks as a senior.

Tennessee Titans:
Overrated: Zach Brown
Underrated: Markelle Martin
X-Factor: Kendall Wright
Analysis: Brown is a guy who could make me look extremely stupid later on for calling him overrated, but at this point, he's one of those guys who is a better athlete than a football player. This guy has the speed to get from sideline-to-sideline with his outstanding speed which also allows him to match up with tight ends and running backs in coverage. Problems are, he has gotten some flack for being a little soft and also for taking plays off. He's the classic example of a high risk/high reward selection. How he turns out in the pros will all depend upon what the Titans coaching staff can (or can't) get out of him. Markelle Martin is a guy who did see his draft stock drop some leading up to the draft, but I still saw him as a 4th round selection at worst. Getting him in the 6th was a coup for Tennessee. The X-Factor though will be Kendall Wright. He looked great catching passes from RGIII. The Titans hope he develops that same chemistry with Matt Hasselbeck and eventually Jake Locker. He could develop into the #1 receiver in Tennessee sooner than expected with Kenny Britt not quite living up to the billing of his 1st round pick. Britt has undeniable talent, but he hasn't been able to stay on the field consistently enough to this point. Wright should also be able to take some of the focus of opposing defenses away from Chris Johnson. Just two years ago, Johnson rushed for over 2000 yards. In 2011, he struggled to reach 1000. Wright was certainly an interesting pick for a team that needed to upgrade its pass rush. He will often be compared to Whitney Mercilus, Nick Perry and Courtney Upshaw. Those three were all available at 20 and would have been big upgrades for a team lacking a pass rush.

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