Advanced NFL power rankings: NFC West is best

You'd think that by Week 3, with nearly 20 percent of the season complete, we would know more about the teams by now. But there were some major upsets this past weekend and the rankings reflect that.

One interesting thing about power rankings: just because one team beats another team, it doesn't automatically make them the better team. Perceptions aren't shaken after one bad (or good) game.

Take the 49ers, for example. The Minnesota Vikings took care of them rather handily on Sunday. Did they plummet? Not really. They only dropped on average just under three spots from last week. Are the Vikings ranked higher than the 49ers? Again, no. But Minnesota does top this week's Stock Rising list.

Division Averages

Stock Rising

Stock Falling

Subjective Average

	Subjective
Texans	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	1		1.091		1.195
Falcons	2	2	2	2	2	3	2	2	1	2	2		2.000		2.500
Ravens	3	3	5	3	3	2	4	4	3	3	3		3.273		2.298
49ers	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	4	4	4		3.818		-2.818
Giants	6	5	8	6	5	5	5	5	5	6	5		5.546		2.740
Cardinals	5	6	3	13	6	7	6	6	9	7	6		6.727		7.916
Packers	7	7	16	5	7	6	8	7	6	5	7		7.364		-3.650
Patriots	8	12	10	7	8	8	7	8	7	8	8		8.273		-2.630
Bears	11	9	7	10	12	12	11	9	8	9	10		9.818		3.253
Cowboys	12	8	6	9	9	10	12	13	14	10	11		10.364		2.922
Eagles	9	11	12	8	10	17	10	10	10	15	12		11.273		-4.987
Seahawks	10	13	11	18	11	9	9	12	12	16	9		11.818		6.325
Bengals	15	10	9	16	13	14	15	16	13	14	14		13.546		4.311
Steelers	16	15	14	12	16	11	14	15	11	12	15		13.727		-4.370
Chargers	13	16	13	15	17	19	16	11	15	11	13		14.455		-3.241
Broncos	14	17	19	14	15	13	13	14	18	13	16		15.091		-4.448
Jets	17	19	15	20	18	15	17	17	16	18	18		17.273		1.513
Bills	19	14	17	21	19	18	19	18	17	19	20		18.273		3.513
Lions	18	20	22	11	20	23	18	19	20	17	19		18.818		-5.318
Vikings	21	18	18	24	14	16	20	20	19	22	17		19.000		8.286
Redskins	22	22	25	22	22	22	21	22	21	21	21		21.909		-2.980
Buccaneers	20	23	26	23	21	24	22	21	23	20	22		22.273		-1.630
Titans	24	24	21	26	25	21	25	24	26	27	25		24.364		3.279
Chiefs	26	21	23	27	23	27	24	25	25	24	24		24.455		3.402
Panthers	23	27	29	19	27	25	23	23	27	23	23		24.455		-6.455
Raiders	27	26	20	29	26	20	27	27	30	25	26		25.727		4.416
Rams	25	25	24	25	24	26	28	30	28	26	29		26.364		-2.721
Saints	28	28	31	17	29	30	26	29	22	29	27		26.909		-7.123
Dolphins	29	31	30	28	30	31	29	26	29	28	28		29.000		-2.429
Jaguars	30	29	27	32	28	28	30	28	31	30	30		29.364		1.779
Colts	31	30	28	31	31	29	31	31	24	31	31		29.818		-3.889
Browns	32	32	32	30	32	32	32	32	32	32	32		31.818		-0.961

Observations:

• The Texans are your new No. 1 team. It's not quite a consensus this time around but it's pretty close.
• The Falcons are pretty much a No. 2 consensus as well. Though they have an exact 2.000 average, SB Nation (1) and PFT (3) cancel each other out and average out to 2.
• After a little bit of optimism invaded Cleveland, the Browns are settling back in to their all-too-comfortable 32-spot.
• Sometimes you'll get pundits who are slow to join the crowd, in either direction. Sometimes teams are ranked too high, others too low. This week, CBS has given up on the Packers before everyone else and USA Today doesn't have the same faith in the Cardinals as everyone else. Also USA Today and the Seahawks and Lions.
• There aren't really any sharp delineations this week, it's kind of a smooth and consistent transition through the rankings. Sometimes clusters will develop, but not so much this week.
• USA Today (with a hint of CBS) seems to be your "WTF rankings of the week". Saints above the Seahawks? Lions at 11th? Cardinals 13th? CBS having the Packers down at 16th is equally loony.

Subjective Standard Deviation

	Subjective
Texans	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	1		0.288		-0.412
49ers	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	4	4	4		0.386		0.386
Falcons	2	2	2	2	2	3	2	2	1	2	2		0.426		-1.211
Browns	32	32	32	30	32	32	32	32	32	32	32		0.575		-0.485
Ravens	3	3	5	3	3	2	4	4	3	3	3		0.750		-0.229
Giants	6	5	8	6	5	5	5	5	5	6	5		0.891		-1.089
Redskins	22	22	25	22	22	22	21	22	21	21	21		1.083		-0.708
Dolphins	29	31	30	28	30	31	29	26	29	28	28		1.414		0.066
Patriots	8	12	10	7	8	8	7	8	7	8	8		1.420		-0.566
Jaguars	30	29	27	32	28	28	30	28	31	30	30		1.432		0.307
Jets	17	19	15	20	18	15	17	17	16	18	18		1.483		-0.172
Bears	11	9	7	10	12	12	11	9	8	9	10		1.527		-0.264
Buccaneers	20	23	26	23	21	24	22	21	23	20	22		1.710		-0.669
Chiefs	26	21	23	27	23	27	24	25	25	24	24		1.725		0.084
Bills	19	14	17	21	19	18	19	18	17	19	20		1.763		0.151
Steelers	16	15	14	12	16	11	14	15	11	12	15		1.814		0.705
Titans	24	24	21	26	25	21	25	24	26	27	25		1.823		-0.090
Rams	25	25	24	25	24	26	28	30	28	26	29		1.967		0.210
Broncos	14	17	19	14	15	13	13	14	18	13	16		2.021		-0.001
Colts	31	30	28	31	31	29	31	31	24	31	31		2.081		-0.106
Bengals	15	10	9	16	13	14	15	16	13	14	14		2.148		0.048
Cowboys	12	8	6	9	9	10	12	13	14	10	11		2.227		0.042
Chargers	13	16	13	15	17	19	16	11	15	11	13		2.388		-0.153
Cardinals	5	6	3	13	6	7	6	6	9	7	6		2.416		-0.849
Eagles	9	11	12	8	10	17	10	10	10	15	12		2.526		0.903
Vikings	21	18	18	24	14	16	20	20	19	22	17		2.697		1.419
Panthers	23	27	29	19	27	25	23	23	27	23	23		2.709		0.259
Seahawks	10	13	11	18	11	9	9	12	12	16	9		2.790		-0.545
Packers	7	7	16	5	7	6	8	7	6	5	7		2.869		1.484
Lions	18	20	22	11	20	23	18	19	20	17	19		2.979		0.783
Raiders	27	26	20	29	26	20	27	27	30	25	26		3.018		1.716
Saints	28	28	31	17	29	30	26	29	22	29	27		3.872		-0.682

Observations:

• There is no unanimous consensus this week. But the Texans are still solidly the consensus No. 1.
• I expected the Falcons to be more consistently ranked, but the 49ers actually edged them out. Again, thanks to SB Nation and PFT.
• Like I said: Cleveland is settling in.
• Interesting. Usually when a team moves, their standard deviation tends to go up. There are some exceptions to that rule, but look at the Broncos: they dropped nearly 4.5 spots this week, but it was practically in unison across the board.
• Interestingly, nine of the 11 least-consistently-ranked teams are NFC teams. It seems like the NFC is a little more difficult to figure out.

Objective Average

	Objective
Falcons	1	2	4	3		2.500		4.000
Ravens	3	4	1	7		3.750		2.500
Texans	5	3	3	10		5.250		1.750
Patriots	2	7	2	15		6.500		-0.250
Cardinals	24	1	5	1		7.750		3.000
Seahawks	19	5	6	2		8.000		1.250
49ers	10	10	8	6		8.500		-3.500
Giants	7	8	7	13		8.750		4.500
Eagles	13	6	17	5		10.250		-3.750
Packers	4	14	9	14		10.250		-4.000
Jets	12	11	12	11		11.500		4.000
Cowboys	16	9	14	8		11.750		-0.250
Bears	6	18	11	17		13.000		0.500
Bills	9	15	18	12		13.500		9.500
Vikings	17	20	16	4		14.250		10.500
Broncos	8	16	15	18		14.250		-3.750
Chargers	22	13	13	9		14.250		-2.750
Steelers	14	17	10	23		16.000		-5.750
Bengals	26	12	19	16		18.250		3.000
Dolphins	20	19	22	20		20.250		-1.250
Lions	15	25	20	27		21.750		-6.750
Jaguars	30	22	24	19		23.750		7.250
Buccaneers	23	26	23	25		24.250		-1.250
Saints	11	31	25	32		24.750		-3.500
Chiefs	29	21	28	21		24.750		5.250
Redskins	21	27	21	31		25.000		-5.250
Raiders	25	24	29	22		25.000		2.500
Titans	28	23	26	24		25.250		-0.500
Panthers	18	28	31	29		26.500		-5.000
Colts	27	30	27	26		27.500		-2.750
Browns	31	32	30	28		30.250		-3.000
Rams	32	29	32	30		30.750		-6.250

Observations:

• Football Outsiders: not convinced about the Cardinals, nor Seahawks. And still holding out hope for the Saints. (Most of this can be explained by the fact that their rankings are still comprised of 55 percent pre-season projections).
• Wow, two sites have ranked the Arizona Cardinals as the best team in the NFL. Football Outsiders disagrees.
• Vikings had an excellent showing against San Francisco, and are rewarded handsomely with a 10.5-spot jump in the Objective Rankings this week.
• A three-way tie at 14.25 between the Vikings, Broncos and Chargers. Neat.
• It's no wonder the the Saints and Chiefs went to overtime: they're ranked the same here.

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective
Jets	12	11	12	11		0.500		-5.437
Dolphins	20	19	22	20		1.090		-1.826
Falcons	1	2	4	3		1.118		-2.453
Rams	32	29	32	30		1.299		-4.804
Buccaneers	23	26	23	25		1.299		-2.307
Browns	31	32	30	28		1.479		-0.306
Colts	27	30	27	26		1.500		-2.332
49ers	10	10	8	6		1.658		-3.085
Titans	28	23	26	24		1.920		-0.568
Ravens	3	4	1	7		2.165		-1.467
Giants	7	8	7	13		2.488		-0.781
Raiders	25	24	29	22		2.550		0.892
Texans	5	3	3	10		2.861		0.625
Cowboys	16	9	14	8		3.345		-1.372
Bills	9	15	18	12		3.354		-0.182
Chiefs	29	21	28	21		3.767		1.896
Broncos	8	16	15	18		3.767		-0.074
Jaguars	30	22	24	19		4.023		3.316
Packers	4	14	9	14		4.146		-0.177
Redskins	21	27	21	31		4.243		1.130
Lions	15	25	20	27		4.657		1.266
Steelers	14	17	10	23		4.743		1.398
Chargers	22	13	13	9		4.763		2.584
Bears	6	18	11	17		4.848		-0.127
Eagles	13	6	17	5		4.969		2.097
Panthers	18	28	31	29		5.025		-2.541
Bengals	26	12	19	16		5.117		1.772
Patriots	2	7	2	15		5.315		-0.824
Vikings	17	20	16	4		6.098		2.075
Seahawks	19	5	6	2		6.519		-0.494
Saints	11	31	25	32		8.378		1.051
Cardinals	24	1	5	1		9.523		-2.126

Observations:

• The three teams with the highest standard deviation this week can all thank Football Outsiders for that.
• I've talked about this before, but usually the best and worst teams tend to have the lowest standard deviation merely by the fact that they can only move so far at each end. When teams in the middle tend to be the most consistently-ranked, it's fun to see. This week the two most (objectively) consistently-ranked teams are the Jets and Dolphins; at 11.500 and 20.250, respectively.

Overall Average

	Subj vs Obj
Falcons	2.000	2.500		2.250		3.250
Texans	1.091	5.250		3.170		1.473
Ravens	3.273	3.750		3.511		2.400
49ers	3.818	8.500		6.159		-3.159
Giants	5.546	8.750		7.148		3.620
Cardinals	6.727	7.750		7.239		5.457
Patriots	8.273	6.500		7.386		-1.440
Packers	7.364	10.250		8.807		-3.825
Seahawks	11.818	8.000		9.909		3.787
Eagles	11.273	10.250		10.761		-4.368
Cowboys	10.364	11.750		11.057		1.336
Bears	9.818	13.000		11.409		1.877
Chargers	14.455	14.250		14.352		-2.995
Jets	17.273	11.500		14.386		2.757
Broncos	15.091	14.250		14.670		-4.099
Steelers	13.727	16.000		14.864		-5.060
Bills	18.273	13.500		15.886		6.507
Bengals	13.546	18.250		15.898		3.656
Vikings	19.000	14.250		16.625		9.393
Lions	18.818	21.750		20.284		-6.034
Buccaneers	22.273	24.250		23.261		-1.440
Redskins	21.909	25.000		23.455		-4.116
Chiefs	24.455	24.750		24.602		4.327
Dolphins	29.000	20.250		24.625		-1.839
Titans	24.364	25.250		24.807		1.389
Raiders	25.727	25.000		25.364		3.457
Panthers	24.455	26.500		25.477		-5.727
Saints	26.909	24.750		25.830		-5.312
Jaguars	29.364	23.750		26.557		4.514
Rams	26.364	30.750		28.557		-4.486
Colts	29.818	27.500		28.659		-3.320
Browns	31.818	30.250		31.034		-1.980

Observations:

• Once you factor in overall average, the Falcons knock-off the Texans as the top team in the league. In fact, the Texans are closer to No. 3 Baltimore than they are to No.1 Atlanta.
• This is where distinct clusters have developed. Look at the cluster of the teams ranked higher than 12th, then a cluster at 14-16, and another cluster at 20 on down.
• Of the top 12 teams, the NFC claims nine spots to the AFC's three. The NFC is turning into the power conference this year.
• Even though in the Objective Rankings, the Rams held the bottom spot, the Browns hold it again as the Rams are buoyed by their Subjective Rankings.

Overall Standard Deviation

	Subj vs Obj
Falcons	2.000	2.500		0.718		-1.650
Browns	31.818	30.250		1.143		-0.814
Ravens	3.273	3.750		1.306		-0.632
Buccaneers	22.273	24.250		1.833		-1.039
Titans	24.364	25.250		1.890		-0.491
Giants	5.546	8.750		2.059		-1.053
Colts	29.818	27.500		2.197		-0.490
49ers	3.818	8.500		2.265		-0.522
Texans	1.091	5.250		2.372		0.063
Chiefs	24.455	24.750		2.446		0.531
Broncos	15.091	14.250		2.630		0.088
Cowboys	10.364	11.750		2.645		-0.390
Rams	26.364	30.750		2.655		-0.632
Redskins	21.909	25.000		2.744		0.561
Jets	17.273	11.500		2.863		-0.577
Raiders	25.727	25.000		2.918		1.147
Steelers	13.727	16.000		3.070		1.178
Patriots	8.273	6.500		3.103		-0.289
Bills	18.273	13.500		3.120		0.872
Bears	9.818	13.000		3.155		0.322
Chargers	14.455	14.250		3.200		0.732
Eagles	11.273	10.250		3.386		1.414
Jaguars	29.364	23.750		3.462		2.414
Packers	7.364	10.250		3.500		0.901
Panthers	24.455	26.500		3.596		-0.821
Lions	18.818	21.750		3.738		1.151
Bengals	13.546	18.250		3.833		1.021
Dolphins	29.000	20.250		4.093		0.458
Vikings	19.000	14.250		4.434		1.989
Seahawks	11.818	8.000		4.460		-1.306
Cardinals	6.727	7.750		5.354		-1.054
Saints	26.909	24.750		5.534		0.202

Observations:

• That's better: now the best and worst teams on the list are the most consistently-ranked.
• Even though the NFC owned the top 12 teams list, they aren't doing so well when it comes to garnering a consensus. Again, eight of the 11 least-consistent teams are in the NFC.
• At the bottom of this list, it's interesting seeing the dichotomy of the Cardinals and Saints: Cardinals as a top-eight team and the Saints as a bottom-eight team, but neither are consistently ranked as such.

Difference in Averages

	Subj vs Obj
Bengals	13.546	18.250		4.705		-1.312
49ers	3.818	8.500		4.682		-0.682
Rams	26.364	30.750		4.386		-3.529
Texans	1.091	5.250		4.159		0.555
Giants	5.546	8.750		3.205		1.759
Bears	9.818	13.000		3.182		-2.753
Redskins	21.909	25.000		3.091		-2.270
Lions	18.818	21.750		2.932		-1.432
Packers	7.364	10.250		2.886		-0.350
Steelers	13.727	16.000		2.273		-1.380
Panthers	24.455	26.500		2.046		1.454
Buccaneers	22.273	24.250		1.977		0.380
Cowboys	10.364	11.750		1.386		-3.172
Cardinals	6.727	7.750		1.023		-4.916
Titans	24.364	25.250		0.886		-3.779
Falcons	2.000	2.500		0.500		1.500
Ravens	3.273	3.750		0.477		0.202
Chiefs	24.455	24.750		0.296		1.847
Chargers	14.455	14.250		-0.205		0.491
Raiders	25.727	25.000		-0.727		-1.916
Broncos	15.091	14.250		-0.841		0.698
Eagles	11.273	10.250		-1.023		1.237
Browns	31.818	30.250		-1.568		-2.039
Patriots	8.273	6.500		-1.773		2.380
Saints	26.909	24.750		-2.159		3.623
Colts	29.818	27.500		-2.318		1.139
Seahawks	11.818	8.000		-3.818		-5.075
Vikings	19.000	14.250		-4.750		2.214
Bills	18.273	13.500		-4.773		5.987
Jaguars	29.364	23.750		-5.614		5.471
Jets	17.273	11.500		-5.773		2.487
Dolphins	29.000	20.250		-8.750		1.179

Observations:

• The gap between the humans and the robots is getting narrower each week. Last week, the biggest swing was 4.964 to -8.893. This week it's only 4.705 to -8.750. Slow progress.
• Either the perception is way off on the Bengals, 49ers, Rams and Texans, or they really are playing better than the computers suggest. Usually it's the latter, but sometimes the bottom does drop out of a team and they end up falling to their Objective average.
• Ever since the Rams drafted Sam Bradford, there has been hope each season that St. Louis is better than it seems; this year is no exception as the subjective rankers are still holding the Rams up.
• Looks like the AFC East is getting no respect: three of the four most under-ranked teams come from the AFC East. The Dolphins are running away with it, too. I guess first impressions are more important than I thought.
• The Chargers have settled. They actually have the smallest disparity between their Subjective and Objective rankings; they're about where they should be, with the Chiefs not far behind. In fact, the entire AFC West is grouped together here. The four AFC West teams are all have less than one position of disparity between the rankings.

Matchup Previews

So, something new I tried out last week was taking a look at the upcoming games that week and what should be the best match-ups based on the rankings, and also what should be the biggest blow-outs. It didn't work out so well.

Last week we had the best matchups as Bengals at Redskins, and Patriots at Ravens, and those games turned out to be pretty good matchups (especially the Patriots-Ravens game).

Where things really broke down was in the Biggest Blowout Potential list. According to the rankings, the two biggest blowout potentials were 49ers at Vikings, and Steelers at Raiders. That turned out not to be the case as both heavy favorites lost to the home team. Ouch. If this happens again this week, maybe I should just rename the list to Sure-Thing Upsets.

Best Match-Ups for Week 4

I'm aware these matchups don't take home-field advantage into account yet. This is still an experiment and I'm trying to flesh out the details.

Biggest Blowout Potential for Week 4

Sources

• ESPN
• Fox
• CBS
• USA Today
• Sports Illustrated
• ProFootballTalk
• NFL.com
• Pro Football Weekly
• SB Nation
• Reddit
• Associated Press
• Football Outsiders
• Team Rankings
• Sagarin
• BeatGraphs