Yes, the Kyle Lohse saga continues, with many teams looking for a starting pitcher but hitting SEND TO VOICEMAIL every time SCOTT BORAS shows up on the caller i.d. ...
A week into spring training, Kyle Lohse's asking price was 3 years, $45M, two executives say. It continues to drop as he remains unsigned.— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 21, 2013
I'm going to throw out this wild assertion: Teams aren't as stupid with their money as they used to be.
Here's what Kyle Lohse has been worth in three-year tranches (according to FanGraphs), going back five years ...
2010-2012: $30 million
2009-2011: $18 million
2008-2010: $20 million
2007-2009: $28 million
2006-2008: $27 million
Based on Lohse's history -- which is really all anybody can look at, since we don't have time machines (yet, that we know about) -- a pretty good guess for his value over the next three seasons is ... well, let's build in some inflation and say $30 million. Which is a lot of money! You can get a lot of house for $30 million! And pay for your kids' college also!
But $30 million ain't $45 million. I'll bet that if Lohse had been willing to pitch for $10 million per season, he would be pitching right now. Maybe for a good team, even. But $45 million ... The thing is, it really wasn't crazy for Lohse and his agent to start at $45 million, because teams have given contracts a lot crazier than that. But for whatever reasons, just not this time. Lohse seems to be a victim of both circumstance and unusual non-craziness. And it probably doesn't help that he's 34, and probably has pitched his best baseball already.
Of course, unless Lohse is exceptionally stubborn, he's not going to skip the 2013 season. It would be crazy to leave $30 million -- or $25 million, or $20 million, or whatever -- on the table when you're 34. Or for that matter, 24 or 44. I really didn't think it would take this long, but Scott Boras does his job as well as anyone's ever done his job. I don't think it's crazy to suggest that everything will probably work out well for all concerned. Especially if Lohse has been keeping his arm warm this month.