Todd McShay took the occasion of Darrelle Revis' trade to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to update his mock draft (ESPN Insider required). He made a number of bold projections, eschewing several common assumptions just days before the 2013 NFL Draft. Let's start with the obvious.
Geno Smith won't be the first quarterback taken
Smith is the consensus top quarterback in the NFL Draft, yet McShay has Syracuse's Ryan Nassib pegged as the first signal caller taken at No. 8 overall by the Buffalo Bills. McShay has Smith as the No. 1 quarterback on his board as well, and still expects the West Virginia product to go in the first round. Without the ability to predict trades, however, there isn't an obvious spot for Smith to fall within the first 32 picks.
Nassib would rejoin his college head coach Doug Marrone in Buffalo. Perhaps more importantly, scouts may like his ability to handle cold weather better than Smith's. Mike Mayock noted in his two-hour conference call last week that Buffalo is unlikely to draft Smith given how poorly he handled adverse weather conditions in college. Granted, Nassib played in a dome at Syracuse. He is certainly familiar with the perils of living in upstate New York, however.
Tyler Eifert is a Top 10 pick
In fact, he nearly creeps into the top five, falling at No. 6 overall to the Cleveland Browns, according to McShay. It is becoming common knowledge that Eifert is the cream of this year's tight end crop, but most mock drafts have pegged him in the middle of the first round.
The Browns make sense as a destination, however. Jordan Cameron is the team's current starter at tight end now that Ben Watson is with the New Orleans Saints, and though Cameron flashed potential last season, he still had just 20 receptions.
Three OTs in the top 4 picks
McShay has all three of the draft's elite left tackles -- Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher and Lane Johnson -- going within the first four picks of the draft. Granted, the trio is very talented, but McShay is even more bullish than most. While Joeckel going No. 1 isn't shocking, Fisher landing at No. 2 with the Jacksonville Jaguars is somewhat surprising.
Eugene Monroe has performed well as the Jags' left tackle, and he is set to start at least through next season. There has been some chatter that he won't be signed to a long-term extension until after the 2013 season, but drafting Fisher would seem like an overtly hostile move on the part of the Jaguars.
Lane Johnson lands with the Philadelphia Eagles, which makes a little more sense. He might have to bide his time at right tackle while Jason Peters finishes out his contract, but at least the incumbent is 31 years old heading into the season, not 26 like Monroe.
And what about the Jets?
McShay has the Jets selecting outside linebacker Barkevious Mingo at No. 9 and wide receiver Tavon Austin with their newly acquired No. 13 overall pick. Those two picks are the same as what SB Nation's Dan Kadar predicted, except with the order reversed.
Either way, it's clear where the Jets' biggest needs lie. Mark Sanchez may have struggled last season, but he didn't have the best complement of passing options, either. Mingo, meanwhile, is a raw but potentially lethal pass rusher who would fit nicely with what Rex Ryan likes to do on defense.
McShay also mentions Dee Milliner as an option if he falls.
McShay's first 15 picks
1. Chiefs - OT Luke Joeckel
2. Jaguars - OT Eric Fisher
3. Raiders - DT Sharrif Floyd
4. Eagles - OT Lane Johnson
5. Lions - DE Ezekiel Ansah
6. Browns - TE Tyler Eifert
7. Cardinals - DE/OLB Dion Jordan
8. Bills - QB Ryan Nassib
9. Jets - OLB Barkevious Mingo
10. Titans - CB Dee Milliner
11. Chargers - OG Jonathan Cooper
12. Dolphins - OG Chance Warmack
13. Jets - WR Tavon Austin
14. Panthers - DT Star Lotulelei
15. Saints - OT D.J. Fluker