Bracketology: Michigan rises to top line on Selection Sunday morning

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

The day of reckoning has arrived, and while it appears that the field of 68 is settled there is still some debate about seeding, particularly on the top line. In Chris Dobbertean's Sunday morning bracket, the Wolverines hold the final No. 1 spot, but will they be there at 6 p.m. Eastern?

On Saturday, Michigan held off Ohio State in their Big Ten Tournament semifinal while Wisconsin fell to Michigan State in game two. As a result, the Wolverines -- the conference's regular season champion -- swap places for now with the Badgers, who will surely be on the two seed line this evening.

Of course, with seven losses already the Maize and Blue's place is not secure by any stretch. This particularly holds true with a third game against their archrivals from East Lansing to come in this afternoon's final in Indianapolis (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS). So, the Committee might have to come up with several brackets to account for the late tip, especially when combined with a similarly late start time in Atlanta for the SEC Tournament final (3 p.m. ET, ESPN) between a Florida team that looks to have the No. 1 overall seed locked down (particularly after Arizona dropped the Pac-12 Tournament final to UCLA on Saturday night) and a Kentucky squad that just might be able to sneak into the Top 16 if it can stun the Gators.

If Michigan happens to lose today, the door could open for a trio of teams. Duke and Virginia, who meet in the ACC Tournament final in Greensboro (1 p.m. ET, ESPN/ACC Network) could each slide in, though I think the Blue Devils have a better chance than the Cavaliers simply because of UVa's weaker strength of schedule both inside and outside of the ACC. Villanova, idle since falling to Seton Hall in the Big East Tournament quarterfinals, could also benefit from a Wolverine loss.

For right now though, Duke and Villanova reside on the 2-seed line, along with the aforementioned Badgers and Iowa State. I bumped the Cyclones up at Kansas' expense thanks to their Big 12 Tournament win on Saturday and the continued mystery surrounding the Jayhawks' Joel Embiid and his back. As a result, Fred Hoiberg's Cyclones claim the second pod in St. Louis (undefeated Wichita State naturally gets the first), while Kansas heads to San Antonio.

I'll have a bit more on Sunday's action after today's full bracket and rundown. ALL CAPS mean automatic qualifier, except for BYU and VCU.

(1) SOUTH
Memphis (Thu/Sat)
(2) WEST
Anaheim (Thu/Sat)
Orlando (Thu/Sat) San Diego (Fri/Sun)
1 Florida (SEC) 1 Arizona
16 CAL POLY/TEXAS STHN. 16 WEBER STATE (Big Sky)
8 Colorado 8 88 Oklahoma State
9 Pittsburgh 9 GONZAGA (WCC)
Spokane (Thu/Sat) Spokane (Thu/Sat)
5 North Carolina 5 VCU (A 10)
12 NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit) 122 BYU/Tennessee
4 Michigan State 4 San Diego State
*13 TULSA (C-USA) 13 NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
San Antonio (Fri/Sun) Orlando (Thu/Sat)
6 Baylor 666 Ohio State
11 Iowa 11 Xavier
3 Creighton 3 LOUISVILLE (AAC)
14 Georgia State (Sun Belt) 14 EASTERN KENTUCKY (OVC)
Raleigh (Fri/Sun) Saint Louis (Fri/Sun)
7 UMass 7 NEW MEXICO (MW)
10 Arizona State 10 PROVIDENCE (Big East)
2 Duke 2 IOWA STATE (Big 12)
15 N.C. CENTRAL (MEAC) 15 MILWAUKEE (Horizon)
(4) EAST
New York (Fri/Sun)
(3) MIDWEST
Indianapolis (Fri/Sun)
Milwaukee (Thu/Sat) St. Louis (Fri/Sun)
1 Michigan (Big Ten) 1 WICHITA STATE (MVC)
16 MOUNT ST. MARY'S (NEC) 16 ALBANY/COASTAL CAROLINA
8 George Washington 8 Oregon
9 Stanford 9 Memphis
San Diego (Fri/Sun) Buffalo (Thu/Sat)
5 UCLA (Pac-12) 5 Oklahoma
12 STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (Southland) 12 HARVARD (Ivy)
4 Cincinnati 4 Syracuse
13 DELAWARE (CAA) 13 MANHATTAN (MAAC)
Raleigh (Fri/Sun) San Antonio (Fri/Sun)
6 Kentucky 6 Connecticut
11 Nebraska/SMU 11 Dayton
3 Virginia (ACC) 3 Kansas
14 MERCER (A-Sun) 14 WESTERN MICHIGAN (MAC)
Buffalo (Thu/Sat) Milwaukee (Thu/Sat)
7 Saint Louis 7 Texas
10 Kansas State 10 St. Joseph's
2 Villanova 2 Wisconsin
15 AMERICAN (Patriot) 15 WOFFORD (SoCon)
FIRST FOUR (Dayton)
Tuesday: To Orlando Tuesday: To Spokane
16 CAL POLY (Big West) 12 BYU
16 TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC) 12 Tennessee
Wednesday: To St. Louis Wednesday: To Raleigh
16 ALBANY (AmEast) 11 Nebraska
16 COASTAL CAROLINA (Big South) 11 SMU

BIDS BY CONFERENCE AVOIDING DAYTON ARRIVALS DEPARTURES
Big 12: 7 Arizona State Albany Cal State Northridge
A 10: 6 Iowa Cal Poly Louisiana Tech
Big Ten: 6 Xavier Tulsa Stony Brook
Pac-12: 6 Dayton

AAC: 5 LAST FOUR IN

ACC: 5
Tennessee

Big East: 4 Nebraska

SEC: 3 SMU

MW: 2 BYU

WCC: 2 FIRST FOUR OUT

1-Bid Conferences: 22 Minnesota


Florida State


California


Arkansas


NEXT FOUR OUT


Louisiana Tech


St. John's


Southern Mississippi


Green Bay

Also considered: Missouri, Belmont, Toledo, Iona, N.C. State, Georgia, Clemson, Georgetown

For a more detailed look at the Last Four In and First Four Out, here are their capsules for Sunday.

From a bubble perspective, no team can steal a bid today since N.C. State lost to Duke, Georgia fell to Kentucky, and St. Joseph's eliminated St. Bonaventure from the Atlantic 10 Tournament. All that is on today's agenda is jockeying for seeding and the determination of the final auto bid for a single-bid conference.

  • Michigan isn't the only team that can gain something from the Big Ten final. Michigan State could move up to a three seed -- probably replacing American champion Louisville -- with a win in Indy, particularly since the Spartans will probably get some positive consideration for all of the injuries they've dealt with during the season.
  • VCU will likely earn a five seed with a win in the Atlantic 10 final in Brooklyn (CBS, 1 p.m. ET). The Rams' opposition, St. Joseph's, might end up in an 8 vs. 9 game if it cuts down the nets.
  • Georgia State, who went 17-1 in the Sun Belt, can return to the NCAA Tournament with a victory over Louisiana-Lafayette, a team that gave Louisville a scare in 2005. It would be GSU's first time since 2001, when the Panthers reached the Round of 32. The Sun Belt final tips at 1 p.m. ET on ESPN2.

Just the final bracketology update of the season remains, and I will post it just before the Selection Show. In the meantime, be sure to follow me on Twitter @ChrisDobbertean. I'll also have a TV preview over at Blogging the Bracket.

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