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Like I've said before, I do believe there are lessons from every significant salary change in FanDuel fantasy football. Sometimes they're easy lessons (Tony Romo got hurt, so Dez Bryant's salary went down), but regardless, I think it's good to acknowledge them.
In Week 13, then, I'm looking for the biggest salary changes, and identifying the reasons, large and small. Maybe we find some bargains, and maybe we find some fantasy stay-aways. I've written this lede before looking at the big changes, so maybe I get to learn something to. That's always fun.
Quarterback
Biggest changes: $500
- Aaron Rodgers sees his salary drop from $9,200 to $8,700 this week. I think it's FanDuel saying, once and for all, that it can't in good conscience have Rodgers at the top of the heap among quarterbacks. He's been average or worse in all but one game since Week 3. He's still Aaron Rodgers, but his production hasn't been top tier.
- Drew Brees also drops, going for $8,200 to $7,700. This one seems pretty reactionary. Brees, as we know, had a crazy hot stretch a few weeks back, but has had more bad games than good ones this year. Check the game log, though, and you'll see that, once again, Brees is a home/road guy. He's averaging 25 fantasy points a game in his home games, compared to 12.2 in his road games. Yes, this week's home game is against the Panthers, but still, a $500 drop for Brees feels like too much.
- Like Rodgers' drop, the slide from $7,900 to $7,400 for Matt Ryan feels like FanDuel throwing up its hands and saying "Screw it, this guy isn't who he was supposed to be." Ryan's salary literally hasn't gone up once all season, more or less steadily falling from $8,800 in Week 1 to the $7,400 it is now, as he's gone from "intriguing mid-range QB1" to "goodness, whatever, Dude Who Is Wasting Julio Jones."
Running back
Biggest change: $800-$1,100
- Arizona's David Johnson is the easy one here, as injuries to Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington makes David Johnson's salary jump from $4,800 to $5,900. The rookie was strong early in the season, with 53 fantasy points through five weeks, but has cooled off of late. Still, having the job (theoretically) mostly to himself should make Johnson worth at least the $5,900 he is right now.
- In Week 1, C.J. Anderson's FanDuel salary was $8,400. That reflected his huge close to 2014 and the fact that the running back of a Peyton Manning offense is supposed to be strong. It didn't take long for Anderson to fall, and he was as low as $5,700 two weeks ago. He jumped to $5,800 last week, and now is back to $6,800 after 153 total yards and two scores last week. We need to see more to put him back among the elite, like he was, but I think it's interesting that FanDuel seems to believe enough that that's where Anderson is headed to bump him that much.
- I'm pretty surprised by FanDuel on this one, but Darren McFadden is seeing his salary fall $800 this week (from $8,100 to $7,300). Yes, he had only five fantasy points last week after 14 the week before, and his total yardage fell from 149 to 56. His bad week was against Carolina, though, as the Dallas offense basically fell apart, and I would have thought McFadden would get credit for that. I think $8,100 might have been a bit high for his salary (it was the highest point of the season), but $7,300 feels like an over correction.
Wide receiver
Biggest change: $900-$1,100
- I said this one in like five words earlier: Tony Romo is hurt. Matt Cassel is the Dallas quarterback. Matt Cassel is bad. Dez Bryant suffers as a result. He was at $8,300; he is at $7,200.
- Before Week 12, Markus Wheaton had 273 yards for the season. He almost doubled that Sunday. Of course, Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant haven't gone anywhere and, while Wheaton's salary has jumped from $4,900 to $6,000, Brown's stayed steady and Bryant's rose. Those last couple facts tell me that FanDuel doesn't really believe in Wheaton, but thinks he'll get a lot more play this week anyway, so his salary rose as a preemptive strike.
- I'm a Doug Baldwin believer. Now, I'm not calling for many more three-score games, but Jimmy Graham is done, and Jermaine Kearse-Tyler Lockett-Luke Willson is not a reason to shy away from Baldwin. His salary was $5,300 a week ago, which was clearly too low. It's $6,200 now, which is fair and should more reflect his likely week-to-week output.
Tight end
Biggest change: $500-$700
- Again, we start with an easy one. Scott Chandler climbs from $4,600 to $5,300 this week by virtue of Rob Gronkowski's injury. The FanDuel prices are set late Sunday/early Monday, so the game couldn't really know the real New England situation. So Gronkowski's salary stays the same this week, and Chandler's only rises $900. If the Patriots' game had been a Thanksgiving one, I bet these numbers would be different. And, considering I have Chandler as my No. 3 tight end this week, I think the fact that they only had time to bump him $700 will work out well for FanDuel players.
- There was a lot of anticipation for Julius Thomas this year. Yes, he was in Jacksonville and not Denver, but it was still a tight end who had been borderline superstar status, and that should still be a fine fantasy starter one way or another. Unfortunately, he had two or fewer fantasy points in four of his first five games. Last week was the first big game in more than a month for Thomas, with 116 yards and a score, but it was his second straight week of increased looks, going from two catches on five targets in Week 10, to five and eight in Week 11, to nine and 10 last week. He's looking more real. The salary is fair.