Bob Baffert's American Pharoah has the look of a Kentucky Derby-winning horse even before he's run in the 141st Run for the Roses, scheduled for Saturday. He's coasted in every race of his career so far, winning his last time out in the Arkansas Derby by a commanding eight lengths.
American Pharoah, the 5-2 favorite, will have jockey Victor Espinoza on his back, the man who rode California Chrome last year to huge wins in the Derby and the Preakness Stakes, before falling just short in the marathon Belmont Stakes. Espinoza will also ride Kentucky Oaks favorite Stellar Wind on Friday, so the jockey could be coming off a great day at Churchill Downs on Friday when he wakes up on the biggest day in American thoroughbred racing.
But American Pharoah won't cruise to a win by any means. He was dealt a significant blow when the post position draw took place Wednesday and horse after horse came off the board before American Pharoah was finally called off for the No. 18 post. It's not insurmountable. Gato Del Sol won out of the 18th gate in 1982, and only I'll Have Another (2012) and the triumphant Big Brown (2008) have ever won from further-outside starting gates. That means that, in the 84 Runs for the Roses since Churchill Downs began using starting gates, only three horses have won from as far outside as American Pharoah will start Saturday.
Dortmund, another Baffert-trained horse, is the second choice at 3-1. Starting out of the No. 8 gate is a much more favorable position than American Pharoah finds himself in, though the two horses may not be considered quite as close without the handicap dealt during the draw. Still, Dortmund is an impressive horse -- a huge horse that will have the same effect of watching a basketball game and seeing just how big LeBron James is next to other athletes near his same height. Dortmund is undefeated, too, having most recently won the Santa Anita Derby.
Carpe Diem is the best the field has to offer if you're looking to avoid Bob Baffert from winning his fourth Kentucky Derby. Carpe Diem, trained by Todd Pletcher, is the third choice at 8-1, and every horse after Carpe Diem has considerably longer odds. Carpe Diem won impressively at the Blue Grass Stakes at nearby Keeneland, opening the throttle on the final turn and burning ahead in the final furlongs for the win. He seemed to still have plenty left to give at the Blue Grass, suggesting he'll perform well at 1 1/4 miles on Saturday.
The Kentucky Derby will post at 6:25 p.m. ET on NBC.