Best of Outnumbered

What drives the Kings' shot differential?

The Kings have been a dominant puck possession team the last couple of years. How do they do it?

What's Toronto's real shooting talent?

The Leafs have now played 82 games since the start of last year, and have shot phenomenally well over that span. How confident can we be that they won't keep it up?

Bringing shot quality into the mix

Can we improve on Corsi by factoring in shot location and type?

NHL
9

What's Lundqvist really worth?

How much will Henrik Lundqvist be worth next year? In 2017? In 2021?

NHL
+

Age and NHL contracts

What should we expect from the Sedins over the next four years or from Kessel over the next eight? Making a good guess is more complicated than it might seem.

Catching up: NHL teams adopting advanced stats

A few years ago, having any analytics effort at all was enough to give a team an edge. That's no longer the case.

NHL
5

Standout seasons and projections

When a player has a standout season, it can be hard to determine whether or not we should expect the same results in future seasons. Placing those performances in the context of the rest of league...

Forecasting goalies

Goalies are notoriously variable and difficult to forecast. Let's come up with both a forecast and an estimate of uncertainty based on the goalie's performance to date and sample size.

Flyers zone entry data: The wheels come off

39

The Flyers had problems last year. One major contributor was mediocre puck possession, which started with serious struggles entering the offensive zone.

Getting the most for your money

27

How a hockey team can focus on spending their budget on talents that the market undervalues to get an advantage on the competition.

How to evaluate defensemen

40

How much impact do defensemen have on their team's save percentage? How does that affect our evaluations?

Estimated usage data for top-rated CHL forwards

24

Understanding usage provides important context for analyzing a player's performance. We provide estimates of how the top-rated CHL forwards were used this year.

Analyzing prospect usage

53

Understanding usage provides important context for analyzing a player's performance. We take a look at how we can estimate a prospect's ice time and quality of competition.

Old guys on the power play

28

A look at whether aging erodes even strength skills faster than power play ability.

Regression, predictions, and peer review

86

A look at the importance of accounting for variance in data with poor repeatability, and a discussion of how the Internet's informal peer review can go wrong.

Does regression to the mean apply to hockey?

25

Over 125 years ago, it was demonstrated that small samples produce extreme results that will eventually regress to the mean. Is that true for hockey?

How shooting pct. and shot rates impact scoring

23

Do shooting percentages or shot rates drive an individual player's point totals more?

What does it cost to trade up in the draft?

67

What does it cost for a team to trade up in the NHL draft? Lots of studies have been done, but let's try and nail it down.

Why goalies should never play back-to-back

32

Ilya Bryzgalov has seen a heavy workload this season. He should see less, because it doesn't make much sense when goalies play back-to-back games.

Hockey stats part 2: Individual contributions

56

In part 2 of our stat primer, we look at the stats that shed light on individual player contributions and where modern analysis is headed.

Just how good are the Kings, really?

42

A shot differential metric developed on Broad Street Hockey is gaining increasingly widespread use. Let's look at what it means and what it says about Flyers West.

Comparing the Flyers and Wild zone entry data

3

Tracking zone entries has provided insight into the Flyers performance in all three zones. With other teams starting to get involved in this project, we can now compare across teams.

How Philadelphia Flyers forwards were deployed in 2011-12

25

We use a new competition metric to sort out which Flyers forwards faced the opponents' top forward lines and which faced the top defensive pairings.

Philadelphia Flyers zone entries, part 4: Team-level results

3

In part four of our year-end zone entries series, we look at the Flyers' results in each zone overall and against each of their conference rivals.

Philadelphia Flyers zone entries, part 3: Off-puck contributions

24

In part 3 of our year-end review of the Flyers zone entries, we look at off-puck contributions to assess each player's performance in the offensive zone, defensive zone, and neutral zone.

Philadelphia Flyers zone entries, part 2: Individual puck-handling

32

In part two of our year-end zone entry review series, we look at the Flyers individual puck-handling.

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