Bracketology: BYU slides out; Georgetown's bubble burst

Ethan Miller

A bad piece of injury news cost the Cougars a place in Chris Dobbertean's Thursday morning projection. Meanwhile, the Hoyas are surely headed to the NIT following a Wednesday night loss to DePaul. (Yes, really.) SB Nation's GIF Tournament V

In Wednesday's post, I wrote that updates regarding Kyle Collinsworth's knee would be vital for BYU's tournament hopes. Well, news came later in the day, and it was not good, as the All-WCC guard suffered a torn ACL, an injury that will keep him out for the remainder of the season. Since Selection Committee chairman Ron Wellman stated -- also yesterday -- that the group of 10 will seriously consider a team's injuries and current state during the process of building the bracket, Collinsworth's negative test results could be a major blow for the Cougars. So, I've elected to drop the WCC runners-up from the field for now, with California -- a team that faces a crucial Pac-12 quarterfinal against Colorado this afternoon -- sliding in as their replacement.

New Patriot League champion American joins the field alongside the Golden Bears. The Eagles thoroughly dominated host Boston University to claim the only auto-bid on offer on Wednesday night. No further invitations will be handed out until Saturday, when 14 conference champions will be decided.

After Thursday's bracket and rundown, I'll have a look at how today's busy slate might affect Friday's projection.

(1) SOUTH
Memphis (Thu/Sat)
(2) WEST
Anaheim (Thu/Sat)
Orlando (Thu/Sat) San Diego (Fri/Sun)
1 Florida (SEC) 1 Arizona (Pac-12)
16 MOUNT ST. MARY'S/Weber State *16 MILWAUKEE (Horizon)
8 Oregon 8 88 Iowa
9 Oklahoma State 9 Kansas State
San Diego (Fri/Sun) San Antonio (Fri/Sun)
55 5 Michigan State 5 Saint Louis (A 10)
^12 Arkansas 122 NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit)
4 Cincinnati (AAC) 4 Iowa State
13 Stephen F. Austin (Southland) 13 DELAWARE (CAA)
Spokane (Thu/Sat) Buffalo (Thu/Sat)
6 Texas 666 UMass
11 Stanford ^11 California/Tennessee
3 San Diego State (MW) 3 Syracuse
14 UC Irvine (Big West) 14 MERCER (A-Sun)
Raleigh (Fri/Sun) Milwaukee (Thu/Sat)
7 VCU 7 Memphis
10 Nebraska 10 Colorado
2 Duke 2 Michigan (Big Ten)
15 Stony Brook (AmEast) 15 Utah Valley (WAC)
(4) EAST
New York (Fri/Sun)
(3) MIDWEST
Indianapolis (Fri/Sun)
Buffalo (Thu/Sat) St. Louis (Fri/Sun)
1 Villanova (Big East) 1 WICHITA STATE (MVC)
16 WOFFORD (SoCon) 16 COASTAL CAROLINA/Texas Sthn.
8 New Mexico 8 Baylor
9 SMU 9 GONZAGA (WCC)
Spokane (Thu/Sat) San Antonio (Fri/Sun)
5 Ohio State 5 Oklahoma
12 Louisiana Tech (C-USA) 12 HARVARD (Ivy)
4 North Carolina 4 Creighton
*13 MANHATTAN (MAAC) 13 Western Michigan (MAC)
Orlando (Thu/Sat) Raleigh (Fri/Sun)
6 Kentucky 6 UCLA
11 St. Joseph's 11 Dayton/Xavier
3 Louisville 3 Virginia (ACC)
14 EASTERN KENTUCKY (OVC) 14 Georgia State (Sun Belt)
St. Louis (Fri/Sun) Milwaukee (Thu/Sat)
7 George Washington 7 Connecticut
10 Arizona State 10 Pittsburgh
2 Kansas (Big 12) 2 Wisconsin
15 N.C. Central (MEAC) *15 AMERICAN (Patriot)
FIRST FOUR (Dayton)
Tuesday: To Orlando Tuesday: To Buffalo
*16 MOUNT ST. MARY'S (NEC) ^*11 California
16 Weber State (Big Sky) ^11 Tennessee
Wednesday: To St. Louis Wednesday: To Raleigh
16 COASTAL CAROLINA (Big South) 11 Dayton
16 Texas Southern (SWAC) 11 Xavier

BIDS BY CONFERENCE AVOIDING DAYTON ARRIVALS DEPARTURES
Big 12: 7 Pittsburgh American Boston U.
Pac-12: 7 Stanford California BYU
A 10: 6 St. Joseph's

Big Ten: 6 Arkansas

AAC: 5 LAST FOUR IN

ACC: 5
Xavier

SEC: 4 Dayton

Big East: 3 California

MW: 2 Tennessee

1-Bid Conferences: 23 FIRST FOUR OUT


BYU


Minnesota


St. John's


Green Bay


NEXT FOUR OUT


Southern Mississippi


Missouri


Florida State


Utah

Also considered: Toledo, Georgia, Clemson, West Virginia, N.C. State, LSU, Georgetown, Marquette, Indiana, Richmond

With every multi-bid conference tournament underway or starting up today, there are plenty of chances for teams to make a move up or down the Seed List.

  • In the American Athletic Conference, the final quarterfinal between host Memphis and UConn is the main attraction, as the league's other three locks face lesser lights from the conference's second division.
  • Dayton and UMass will both look to avoid costly defeats in the Atlantic 10's second round, though for the Minutemen, a loss would only damage their seeding. The Flyers, looking to set up a Friday quarterfinal against fellow bubble team St. Joseph's, has a bit more at stake against Fordham.
  • ACC hopefuls Florida State, Pitt, N.C. State and Clemson all must win in today's second round to have a chance. The Seminoles have the most difficult task of the four, as they'll be wearing road jerseys in an 8/9 game against Maryland.
  • The Big 12 quarterfinals in Kansas City should provide plenty of drama, as all seven teams currently in this projection are in action, along with a West Virginia squad that could certainly claim the auto bid. Keep an eye on Kansas in particular. The Jayhawks need to grab some wins in their backyard to preserve their seeding, considering Joel Embiid's absence for this weekend and potentially beyond.
  • A trio of Big East bubble teams are in action, as Georgetown was unable to make it a quartet on Wednesday. St. John's meets Providence in a virtual elimination game in the afternoon, while Xavier cannot afford a loss to Marquette in the nightcap.
  • Minnesota has the most at-stake in the Big Ten first round, as it needs to advance to a Friday quarterfinal against Wisconsin for another quality win chance. A second consecutive win over Penn State simply won't help the Gophers out much.
  • San Diego State and New Mexico both face teams that won tight contests in Wednesday's Mountain West first round in today's quarterfinals. The Aztecs take on a Utah State team that pulled off a miraculous rally against Colorado State, while the Lobos face a Fresno State team that took advantage of an Air Force collapse to advance.
  • All four Pac-12 bid contenders won their openers in Las Vegas on Wednesday, setting up an intriguing group of quarterfinals for today. As I wrote earlier, the Cal-Colorado game interests me the most, simply because the Golden Bears, a team that is very much on shaky ground, really need to avenge Saturday's overtime loss to the Buffaloes to hang in the bracket beyond today.
  • Day two of the SEC Tournament introduces three potential NCAA squads into the bracket. Arkansas (currently in), Missouri and LSU (both out) can kiss their hopes goodbye with losses in Atlanta this afternoon.

I'll have another full bracketology update on Friday morning, but as events warrant, I'll may be chiming in with mini updates as the day unfolds. Naturally, I'll also be active during Thursday's action on Twitter @ChrisDobbertean. Also, for a full TV preview head over Blogging the Bracket after noon ET.

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