Bracketology: Pitt moving closer to cut line

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sport

After Monday night's home loss to fellow bubble team N.C. State, Pitt now barely avoids a trip to Dayton in Chris Dobbertean's Tuesday bracket projection.

Because there were so few games on the final Monday of the regular season, the top four lines and First Four of this bracket are unchanged from yesterday's version. It's a different story for lines eight through 11, however, as I'll explain after the full projection and rundown.

(1) SOUTH
Memphis (Thu/Sat)
(2) WEST
Anaheim (Thu/Sat)
Orlando (Thu/Sat) San Diego (Fri/Sun)
1 Florida (SEC) 1 Arizona (Pac-12)
16 Alabama State/Weber State 16 Davidson (SoCon)
8 SMU 8 George Washington
9 Arizona State 9 Oklahoma State
Spokane (Thu/Sat) San Diego (Fri/Sun)
5 Oklahoma 5 Texas
12 Toledo (MAC) 12 Gonzaga (WCC)
4 Cincinnati (AAC) 4 Michigan State
13 North Dakota State (Summit) 13 Iona (MAAC)
Raleigh (Fri/Sun) Milwaukee (Thu/Sat)
6 UCLA 6 Connecticut
^11 Minnesota/Providence ^11 Arkansas/BYU
3 Virginia (ACC) 3 Creighton
14 Delaware (CAA) 14 Georgia State (Sun Belt)
Milwaukee (Thu/Sat) Raleigh (Fri/Sun)
7 New Mexico (MW) 7 Ohio State
10 Xavier 10 California
2 Wisconsin 2 Duke
15 UC Irvine (Big West) 15 Florida Gulf Coast (A-Sun)
(4) EAST
New York (Fri/Sun)
(3) MIDWEST
Indianapolis (Fri/Sun)
St. Louis (Fri/Sun) St. Louis (Fri/Sun)
1 Kansas (Big 12) 1 Wichita State (MVC)
16 Robert Morris (NEC) 16 High Point/Utah Valley
8 Stanford 8 Iowa
9 St. Joseph's 9 Kansas State
San Antonio (Fri/Sun) San Antonio (Fri/Sun)
5 Saint Louis (A 10) 5 North Carolina
12 Green Bay (Horizon) 12 Harvard
4 Louisville 4 Iowa State
13 Louisiana Tech (C-USA) 13 Belmont (OVC)
Spokane (Thu/Sat) Orlando (Thu/Sat)
6 Kentucky 6 UMass
11 Pittsburgh 11 Oregon
3 San Diego State 3 Michigan (Big Ten)
14 Stephen F. Austin (Southland) 14 Boston U. (Patriot)
Buffalo (Thu/Sat) Buffalo (Thu/Sat)
7 Memphis 7 VCU
10 Baylor 10 Colorado
2 Syracuse 2 Villanova (Big East)
15 N.C. Central (MEAC) 15 Vermont (AmEast)
FIRST FOUR (Dayton)
Tuesday: To Orlando Tuesday: To Milwaukee
16 Alabama State (SWAC) 11 Arkansas
16 Weber State (Big Sky) ^11 BYU
Wednesday: To St. Louis Wednesday: To Raleigh
16 High Point (Big South) 11 Minnesota
16 Utah Valley (WAC) ^11 Providence

BIDS BY CONFERENCE AVOIDING DAYTON ARRIVALS DEPARTURES
Big 12: 7 California None None
Pac-12: 7 Xavier

Big Ten: 6 Pittsburgh

A 10: 5 Oregon

AAC: 5 LAST FOUR IN

ACC: 5
Minnesota

Big East: 4 Arkansas

SEC: 3 BYU

MW: 2 Providence

WCC: 2 FIRST FOUR OUT

1-Bid Conferences: 22 Tennessee


Nebraska


Missouri


Florida State


NEXT FOUR OUT


Dayton


St. John's


Georgetown


Southern Miss.

Also considered: LSU, N.C. State, Indiana, Marquette, Clemson, Illinois

As you can see, Pitt's loss to an N.C. State team that's still on the outside looking in and Oklahoma State's big home win over Kansas State shook things up. The Cowboys gained some breathing room with a win (even if their seeding doesn't reflect it) and the Wildcats are in roughly the same spot, but the Panthers are now a mere half-dozen teams away from the cut line, with several of their competitors in action over the next few nights. Xavier is also in trouble following a loss to Seton Hall, which included the added blow of an injury to center Matt Stainbrook.

I'll have a full TV preview up at Blogging the Bracket at noon ET. In the mean time, here's a quick rundown of what to expect Tuesday night.

  • Among ACC contenders, Syracuse returns home for a winnable game against Georgia Tech; Florida State must avoid a bad late loss at Boston College; and Clemson, which hosts Pitt on Saturday, will look to do the same at home against Miami.
  • In the Big 12, Baylor can solidify its place further by earning a split against an Iowa State team that still has aspirations for a high seed.
  • All four Big East teams in action Tuesday have high hopes. Creighton must defeat Georgetown to keep pace with Villanova for the conference crown. Meanwhile, Marquette and Providence, who meet in Rhode Island, are in search of wins for their respective selection sheets.
  • Michigan can clinch the outright Big Ten title with a win at resurgent Illinois.
  • Oregon, which lost to Arizona State by two in Tempe, can edge closer to safety by reversing that result in Eugene.
  • SEC champ Florida will look to stay perfect against South Carolina, while the Gamecocks' Saturday victim, Kentucky, must defeat Alabama to stay in the hunt for a spot in the protected seed group.

My next bracketology will come tomorrow, and based on that list of games there should be several more changes. In the meantime, head over to Blogging the Bracket for my daily TV previews and morning recaps, and follow me during each night's action on Twitter @ChrisDobbertean.

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