Bracketology: One week left to make a case

Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Selection Sunday is a mere seven days away, and time is quickly running out for NCAA Tournament hopefuls to gain the attention of the Selection Committee. Chris Dobbertean's updated bracket features some jumbling in the middle of the field as a result of Saturday's heavy slate of bubble games, along with a new No. 1 seed.

UPDATE, March 10: Chris Dobbertean's latest bracketology, reflecting Sunday's top 10 upsets.

At the top of the bracket, Big East regular season champion Villanova replaces Kansas, who fell at West Virginia despite a 41-point performance from Andrew Wiggins. The Jayhawks now have eight losses on the season, one more than the 2012 Michigan State team that currently holds the record for most defeats for a top seed. I'm not sure KU can break that mark, even with its computer numbers.

Florida, which just completed a perfect SEC regular season, is first overall, followed by Arizona, Wichita State and Villanova. Kansas, Wisconsin, Virginia and Michigan make up the two line, with Duke knocking on the door. The ACC/Big Ten conundrum among that quintet will sort itself out over the next week.

In terms of the bubble, Oregon (over Arizona), Pittsburgh (Clemson), Dayton (Richmond), Tennessee (Missouri), Baylor (Kansas State) and Stanford (Utah) were Saturday's big winners. California also got a helpful win over Colorado, but the Golden Bears are still just outside of the bracket this morning. On the other hand, Arkansas (losing at Alabama), Providence (Creighton), Arizona State (Oregon State), Georgetown (Villanova) and the aforementioned Missouri and Clemson didn't cover themselves in glory. The Friars dropped out of the bracket, while both the Razorbacks and Sun Devils saw their positions worsen, while still remaining in for now.

I'll take a look at Sunday's schedule after the morning bracket and rundown. You'll notice plenty of arrows beside seed numbers today, reflecting the jostling that took place on a hectic Saturday.

(1) SOUTH
Memphis (Thu/Sat)
(2) WEST
Anaheim (Thu/Sat)
Orlando (Thu/Sat) San Diego (Fri/Sun)
1 Florida (SEC) 1 Arizona (Pac-12)
16 Texas Southern/Weber State *16 Wright State (Horizon)
8 Oregon 8 88 Iowa
9 Oklahoma State 9 Kansas State
San Diego (Fri/Sun) San Antonio (Fri/Sun)
55 5 Michigan State 5 Saint Louis (A 10)
12 HARVARD (Ivy) 122 Nebraska
4 Cincinnati (AAC) 4 Iowa State
13 Stephen F. Austin (Southland) 13 Delaware (CAA)
Raleigh (Fri/Sun) Spokane (Thu/Sat)
6 Texas 666 Kentucky
^11 Dayton/Tennessee 11 BYU
3 Duke 3 San Diego State (MW)
14 Georgia State (Sun Belt) 14 Vermont (AmEast)
Milwaukee (Thu/Sat) Raleigh (Fri/Sun)
7 VCU 7 Memphis
10 Gonzaga (WCC) 10 Colorado
2 Michigan (Big Ten) 2 Virginia (ACC)
15 Robert Morris (NEC) 15 Florida Gulf Coast (A-Sun)
(4) EAST
New York (Fri/Sun)
(3) MIDWEST
Indianapolis (Fri/Sun)
Buffalo (Thu/Sat) St. Louis (Fri/Sun)
1 Villanova (Big East) 1 Wichita State (MVC)
16 Davidson (SoCon) 16 Coastal Carolina/Utah Valley
8 New Mexico 8 Baylor
9 SMU 9 St. Joseph's
Spokane (Thu/Sat) San Antonio (Fri/Sun)
5 UMass 5 Oklahoma
12 Louisiana Tech (C-USA) 12 North Dakota State (Summit)
4 North Carolina 4 Creighton
13 Iona (MAAC) 13 Western Michigan (MAC)
Orlando (Thu/Sat) Buffalo (Thu/Sat)
6 Ohio State 6 UCLA
11 Stanford 11 Arkansas/Xavier
3 Louisville 3 Syracuse
*14 EASTERN KENTUCKY (OVC) 14 Boston U. (Patriot)
St. Louis (Fri/Sun) Milwaukee (Thu/Sat)
7 George Washington 7 Connecticut
10 Arizona State 10 Pittsburgh
2 Kansas (Big 12) 2 Wisconsin
15 N.C. Central (MEAC) 15 UC Irvine (Big West)
FIRST FOUR (Dayton)
Tuesday: To Orlando Tuesday: To Buffalo
*16 Texas Southern (SWAC) 11 Arkansas
16 Weber State (Big Sky) 11 Xavier
Wednesday: To St. Louis Wednesday: To Raleigh
16 Coastal Carolina (Big South) ^11 Dayton
16 Utah Valley (WAC) *^11 Tennessee

BIDS BY CONFERENCE AVOIDING DAYTON ARRIVALS DEPARTURES
Big 12: 7 Pittsburgh Eastern Kentucky Alabama State
A 10: 6 Stanford Tennessee Belmont
Big Ten: 6 Nebraska Texas Southern Green Bay
Pac-12: 6 BYU Wright State Providence
AAC: 5 LAST FOUR IN

ACC: 5
Arkansas

SEC: 4 Xavier

Big East: 3 Dayton

MW: 2 Tennessee

WCC: 2 FIRST FOUR OUT

1-Bid Conferences: 22 California


Minnesota


Florida State


St. John's


NEXT FOUR OUT


Green Bay


Georgetown


Southern Mississippi


Missouri

Also considered: Toledo, Georgia, Clemson, West Virginia, N.C. State, Utah, LSU, Marquette, Indiana, Richmond

Here's a quick look at what's ahead for the final day of the regular season:

  • Three auto bids will be awarded this afternoon, and all bubble teams will be cheering for a Wichita State win over Indiana State in the Missouri Valley championship. Elsewhere, Coastal Carolina will take on in-state rival Winthrop for the Big South crown, and the top two in the Atlantic Sun -- Mercer and 2013 NCAA darling Florida Gulf Coast -- will meet in Fort Myers.
  • Virginia, very much in the picture for a No. 2 seed, can keep itself in the hunt by defeating Maryland, while Saint Louis visits UMass in a crucial Atlantic 10 contest, especially since both are on the five line right now.
  • Florida State, Minnesota, and N.C. State all need to win to improve their chances, with the Seminoles' home game against Syracuse being one of the more intriguing games of the day, considering the Orange's recent struggles. However, since the Golden Gophers host Penn State and the Wolfpack welcome Boston College to Raleigh, changes to those teams' positions relative to the cut line may not be immediate.
  • Michigan State and Ohio State meet in Columbus with both teams in need of a late seeding boost.
  • Finally, the regular season closes with Wisconsin's visit to Lincoln, where the Cornhuskers will look to grab one more big win heading into the Big Ten Tournament. A Husker win should put them in a fairly good position for Selection Sunday.

I'll update bracketology with Sunday's results on Monday morning. A couple of shorter updates will follow, until things start getting hectic with the start of the power conference tournaments on Wednesday afternoon. In the meantime, you can visit Blogging the Bracket, which features daily TV previews and morning recaps from a bracket perspective. You can also follow me during each night's action on Twitter @ChrisDobbertean.

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