Raw recruiting rankings tell one story well: championships. Three of the four first-ever Playoff teams are Nos. 1, 2, and 3 in the four-year recruiting standings.
But what about the fourth? Oregon tends to rank around No. 17, yet it's been one of the country's best programs for years.
The Ducks' run can be explained in part by coaching continuity and a wealthy alumnus, but also by the fact that they're a relative recruiting elite. Until UCLA's 2015 surge, Oregon ranked second as of late in the Pac-12 behind USC, which was too NCAA-crippled to bring in full classes. So you can capably argue Oregon was the most complete recruiter west of Texas, in addition to having a world-class development culture.
Still, on paper, Florida State had better talent than Oregon last year. That's been the case for four decades or so. But Oregon never played FSU until the Rose Bowl semifinal. The Ducks had to beat the allegedly more talented team once, not annually. In Oregon's world, FSU's five-star ratings were irrelevant every year until they met in Pasadena, at which point the Ducks' coveted stud athletes outclassed the Seminoles'.
SB Nation presents: The way-too-early top 10
Having more raw talent than a particular team only matters if you actually play that team, and it only really matters if you play that team frequently. In one game between comparable teams, a raw talent edge might not mean much (though in the one game between Oregon and Ohio State, the higher-ranked recruiter won).
Over a fuller timeline, history shows better-rated teams win more often, even at the non-championship levels, which still matter a whole lot.
Say your team ranks No. 25 in recruiting. Your freshmen rank ahead of 100 or so FBS programs, most of which they'll never face. That's great! But your No. 25 class ranks behind five conference rivals, which they will face yearly or so. (Good thing your coaches are excellent developers and tacticians.)
Based on the 247Sports Composite team rankings, here's how well each team ranked in 2015 in comparison to its conference's average.
School | Conference | Conference average | Standard deviations above/below avg. | |
1 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 41.571 | 1.97 |
2 | Florida State | ACC | 38.429 | 1.85 |
3 | Boise State | Mountain West | 97.75 | 1.64 |
4 | San Jose State | Mountain West | 97.75 | 1.60 |
5 | Western Michigan | MAC | 101.15 | 1.59 |
6 | Clemson | ACC | 38.429 | 1.59 |
7 | Penn State | Big Ten | 41.571 | 1.53 |
8 | Marshall | Conference USA | 98.308 | 1.49 |
9 | USC | Pac-12 | 32.75 | 1.48 |
10 | Texas | Big 12 | 41.2 | 1.46 |
11 | Louisiana-Lafayette | Sun Belt | 103.45 | 1.38 |
12 | Alabama | SEC | 17.786 | 1.31 |
13 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 41.2 | 1.27 |
14 | Florida Atlantic | Conference USA | 98.308 | 1.25 |
15 | UCLA | Pac-12 | 32.75 | 1.24 |
16 | Miami (Ohio) | MAC | 101.15 | 1.23 |
17 | San Diego State | Mountain West | 97.75 | 1.21 |
18 | Louisiana Tech | Conference USA | 98.308 | 1.19 |
19 | USF | AAC | 85.417 | 1.18 |
20 | Toledo | MAC | 101.15 | 1.17 |
21 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 41.571 | 1.08 |
22 | South Alabama | Sun Belt | 103.45 | 1.08 |
23 | Tennessee | SEC | 17.786 | 1.07 |
24 | Cincinnati | AAC | 85.417 | 1.05 |
25 | Northern Illinois | MAC | 101.15 | 1.04 |
26 | Arkansas State | Sun Belt | 103.45 | 1.03 |
27 | LSU | SEC | 17.786 | 1.00 |
28 | UCF | AAC | 85.417 | 0.99 |
29 | Memphis | AAC | 85.417 | 0.86 |
30 | Georgia Southern | Sun Belt | 103.45 | 0.85 |
31 | Oregon | Pac-12 | 32.75 | 0.81 |
32 | Ohio | MAC | 101.15 | 0.80 |
33 | Auburn | SEC | 17.786 | 0.68 |
34 | Southern Miss | Conference USA | 98.308 | 0.66 |
35 | Arizona State | Pac-12 | 32.75 | 0.62 |
36 | Texas State | Sun Belt | 103.45 | 0.61 |
37 | Georgia | SEC | 17.786 | 0.61 |
38 | Temple | AAC | 85.417 | 0.60 |
39 | Miami | ACC | 38.429 | 0.60 |
40 | Nebraska | Big Ten | 41.571 | 0.59 |
41 | Fresno State | Mountain West | 97.75 | 0.58 |
42 | North Carolina | ACC | 38.429 | 0.54 |
43 | Virginia Tech | ACC | 38.429 | 0.49 |
44 | Texas A&M | SEC | 17.786 | 0.45 |
45 | NC State | ACC | 38.429 | 0.44 |
46 | Central Michigan | MAC | 101.15 | 0.44 |
47 | Stanford | Pac-12 | 32.75 | 0.42 |
48 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 41.571 | 0.42 |
49 | SMU | AAC | 85.417 | 0.41 |
50 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 41.2 | 0.40 |
51 | Louisville | ACC | 38.429 | 0.34 |
52 | Washington | Pac-12 | 32.75 | 0.33 |
53 | Kent State | MAC | 101.15 | 0.25 |
54 | West Virginia | Big 12 | 41.2 | 0.25 |
55 | Baylor | Big 12 | 41.2 | 0.20 |
56 | Michigan | Big Ten | 41.571 | 0.20 |
57 | FIU | Conference USA | 98.308 | 0.19 |
58 | Old Dominion | Conference USA | 98.308 | 0.14 |
59 | Ole Miss | SEC | 17.786 | 0.06 |
60 | Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 41.2 | 0.06 |
61 | TCU | Big 12 | 41.2 | 0.01 |
62 | Mississippi State | SEC | 17.786 | -0.02 |
63 | North Texas | Conference USA | 98.308 | -0.04 |
64 | Utah State | Mountain West | 97.75 | -0.09 |
65 | South Carolina | SEC | 17.786 | -0.09 |
66 | California | Pac-12 | 32.75 | -0.11 |
67 | UMass | MAC | 101.15 | -0.11 |
68 | Louisiana-Monroe | Sun Belt | 103.45 | -0.15 |
69 | UTSA | Conference USA | 98.308 | -0.16 |
70 | Troy | Sun Belt | 103.45 | -0.21 |
71 | Middle Tennessee | Conference USA | 98.308 | -0.22 |
72 | Georgia Tech | ACC | 38.429 | -0.24 |
73 | Wyoming | Mountain West | 97.75 | -0.25 |
74 | Florida | SEC | 17.786 | -0.25 |
75 | Houston | AAC | 85.417 | -0.29 |
76 | Illinois | Big Ten | 41.571 | -0.30 |
77 | Maryland | Big Ten | 41.571 | -0.36 |
78 | East Carolina | AAC | 85.417 | -0.36 |
79 | Rice | Conference USA | 98.308 | -0.39 |
80 | Arkansas | SEC | 17.786 | -0.41 |
81 | Bowling Green | MAC | 101.15 | -0.42 |
82 | Tulane | AAC | 85.417 | -0.42 |
83 | UNLV | Mountain West | 97.75 | -0.44 |
84 | Arizona | Pac-12 | 32.75 | -0.45 |
85 | Indiana | Big Ten | 41.571 | -0.52 |
86 | Utah | Pac-12 | 32.75 | -0.54 |
87 | Virginia | ACC | 38.429 | -0.55 |
88 | Missouri | SEC | 17.786 | -0.56 |
89 | Northwestern | Big Ten | 41.571 | -0.58 |
90 | Duke | ACC | 38.429 | -0.60 |
91 | Kansas State | Big 12 | 41.2 | -0.62 |
92 | Washington State | Pac-12 | 32.75 | -0.64 |
93 | Ball State | MAC | 101.15 | -0.66 |
94 | Appalachian State | Sun Belt | 103.45 | -0.68 |
95 | Nevada | Mountain West | 97.75 | -0.72 |
96 | Rutgers | Big Ten | 41.571 | -0.74 |
97 | New Mexico | Mountain West | 97.75 | -0.76 |
98 | Wake Forest | ACC | 38.429 | -0.76 |
99 | Eastern Michigan | MAC | 101.15 | -0.78 |
100 | Colorado State | Mountain West | 97.75 | -0.80 |
101 | UConn | AAC | 85.417 | -0.81 |
102 | Western Kentucky | Conference USA | 98.308 | -0.86 |
103 | Iowa | Big Ten | 41.571 | -0.91 |
104 | Hawaii | Mountain West | 97.75 | -0.91 |
105 | Air Force | Mountain West | 97.75 | -1.07 |
106 | Minnesota | Big Ten | 41.571 | -1.08 |
107 | Buffalo | MAC | 101.15 | -1.09 |
108 | New Mexico State | Sun Belt | 103.45 | -1.09 |
109 | Boston College | ACC | 38.429 | -1.13 |
110 | Idaho | Sun Belt | 103.45 | -1.15 |
111 | Pittsburgh | ACC | 38.429 | -1.23 |
112 | Purdue | Big Ten | 41.571 | -1.30 |
113 | Georgia State | Sun Belt | 103.45 | -1.32 |
114 | Syracuse | ACC | 38.429 | -1.33 |
115 | Iowa State | Big 12 | 41.2 | -1.44 |
116 | Oregon State | Pac-12 | 32.75 | -1.46 |
117 | Charlotte | Conference USA | 98.308 | -1.51 |
118 | Akron | MAC | 101.15 | -1.57 |
119 | Navy | AAC | 85.417 | -1.58 |
120 | Kansas | Big 12 | 41.2 | -1.59 |
121 | Tulsa | AAC | 85.417 | -1.64 |
122 | Kentucky | SEC | 17.786 | -1.65 |
123 | Colorado | Pac-12 | 32.75 | -1.70 |
124 | UTEP | Conference USA | 98.308 | -1.74 |
125 | Vanderbilt | SEC | 17.786 | -2.20 |
There are exceptions to the rule. There's not even a rule.
TCU is a national title favorite despite only now becoming an average Big 12 recruiter. Arizona, Duke, Kansas State, and Missouri have won divisions or conferences in recent years. Ohio State won't boss around the Big Ten like that once Jim Harbaugh and James Franklin reach their full power. The SEC dominates the overall rankings so hilariously that national No. 17 Ole Miss has a mediocre class relative to its peers, and yet Ole Miss just got destroyed in a bowl by said mediocre Big 12 recruiter. San Jose State ... I have no idea how San Jose State did that.
But on the whole, these are the teams that put the most distance on their actual competition this class, as far as raw talent goes.