This week the card is somewhat smaller.
South Carolina at LSU (-2.5): This is a good spot to take LSU at home, because the public is overreacting to both the South Carolina win and the LSU loss. Before last weekend this line projected at a touchdown or more, and the quality of these teams has not shifted as much as this line suggests in just a week. Also, South Carolina has not been a great road team under Steve Spurrier.
Tennessee (+3) at Mississippi State: Mississippi State's best win is either Auburn, at Troy or at Kentucky. But they're ranked! This is a wager against the Bulldog hype. And that's not to say Mississippi State is a bad team. They're good. Just not as good as their hype. Tennessee may be able to hit some deep balls, and having the bye week to work on Dan Mullen's spread option attack could prove quite helpful.
Wisconsin at Purdue (-2): Purdue let me down last weekend in getting drubbed by Michigan. On the other hand, Wisconsin did manage to cover hosting Illinois. But Wisconsin may be a much different team away from home, and I'll back Purdue again here.
North Carolina (-7) at Miami: The Tar Heels really have hit their stride on offense, averaging almost seven yards per play in games in which their QB is not concussed (Wake Forest, Week 2). And not only are the Tar Heels doing well on a per-play basis, but they also run a lot of plays, topping 72 in five of six games. While Miami can certainly score, they have no quality defensive depth, and North Carolina will look to crank up the pace.
Maryland at Virginia (pk): A lot of road teams are being given too much respect this week. Maryland's losses (UConn, West Virginia) are actually more impressive than its wins (Temple, Wake Forest). Virginia is not a good football team, but I'll call for a motivated Virginia team to take home the win at Virginia.
Temple at UConn Under 42 total points: Both of these defenses are significantly better than their respective offenses. Temple's 37 points last week against South Florida is deceiving, as its defense set up many of the scores via short fields. UConn has a veteran defense and is very well coached on that side of the football.
Utah State at San Jose State (-3): Utah State paid off for me last Friday with a cover at BYU. However, I don't like them in this spot at all because it's a potential hangover and will bet on the underrated Spartans of San Jose State, who are coming off a bye week. SJSU has won its last four and I expect them to take care of business here.
Kansas State at Iowa State (+7): This is a big trap game for Kansas State. The Wildcats beat Kansas like a drum last week, and next week they travel to Morgantown to take on West Virginia in a game that could decide the Big XII. There seems to be very little reason for Kansas State to come out strong here. Iowa State, meanwhile, had a nice win over the weekend at TCU (albeit with TCU's QB out), and will look to play the role of spoiler. Getting a full TD here (and not many books are still offering that), I have to take the Cyclones.
Duke at Virginia Tech (-9.5): Does this seem fishy to you? Sometimes, like two weeks ago with SMU, you just have to bet the side that doesn't make much sense. Duke has been playing very well and Virginia Tech has not. Then again, there is a significant difference in the quality of athlete on these two teams.
Louisville at Pitt (+3): Pitt seems to have things turned around. They pound the ball on the ground and play defense as best they can. Louisville has not been a great road team as a favorite under Charlie Strong. That they're off a bye week, however, does scare me a bit.
Not betting these, but quickly... I'd need 10 points to take Vanderbilt against Florida... the best bet in Stanford-Notre Dame was the under, but the value was sucked out Monday when it was bet down from 49 to 44... Is anyone really all that confident in Texas or Oklahoma?... If it gets to 6 I will take Texas Tech over West Virginia... Ohio State-Indiana could be very high scoring.
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