College football betting picks, Week 9: Florida shouldn't party yet, Alabama to cruise

Daniel Shirey-US PRESSWIRE

Friendly picks of the week include Florida-Georgia, Mississippi State-Alabama, Michigan State-Wisconsin and Oregon State-Washington, plus the Thursday and Friday games. A nice Week 8 of 7-3 (+$370) brings the season record of 53-52 (-$410) closer to the black.

Clemson at Wake Forest Over 58.5: Clemson's offense is excellent and plays at a fast pace. Wake Forest's attack should be bolstered by the return of Michael Campanaro. Plus, Clemson is without both of its top cornerbacks.

Bill Connelly: The exciting (really!) Big East title race

Cincinnati +3.5 at Louisville: I wagered against Cincinnati last week with Toledo and won. This week, I expect Cincy's focus to return. Louisville is not an elite team and its home field is not all that significant.

Duke at Florida State -28: The Seminoles don't have a lookahead here with the bye week looming, and there shouldn't be any hangover from an effort against Miami that included five fumbles. Duke is improved, but is also quite fortunate to be 6-2, which creates some value.

Advanced stats picks for every game this weekend (Arizona over USC!)

Mississippi State at Alabama -23.5 & Under 47.5 total points: The Bulldogs' undefeated record is mostly a function of a cakewalk schedule. Mississippi State's run game is not potent enough to force Alabama out of its base defense, and its passing game is not dynamic enough to be much of a thread with Alabama sitting back in its base. There is the possibility of a lookahead to LSU for the Tide, but the value here is too great to pass up.

Ole Miss at Arkansas Over 64 total points: A battle of proficient offenses and poor defenses that should be played at a fast pace.

Bill Connelly: Can Georgia upset Florida?

Florida at Georgia +7: I won with Florida last weekend, but the scoreboard didn't really reflect the box score, and this number seems a bit inflated. That is the only reason for this wager, as I do not trust Mark Richt or Georgia's offensive line. Still, at some point Florida's offense will be forced to score without a bunch of short fields generated via turnovers. This could be the week.

Michigan State at Wisconsin Under 41.5 total points: There are three knowns in this game: Wisconsin's offense (good), Michigan State's defense (very good) and Michigan State's offense (bad). But what many don't realize is that Wisconsin plays defense pretty well. That's where I find the value in this number, though admittedly I'd like to have the 42 points available Sunday afternoon from the opening line.

Oregon State at Washington Under 48.5 total points: People tend to think of the Pac-12 as an offensive league, but these two teams can play some defense. The Huskies' defense is particularly good at home, and Oregon State's defensive line should win the battle against Washington's offensive front.

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