Simulated BCS rankings, Week 7: Handful of teams control destinies after Saturday massacre

Sam Greenwood - Getty Images

One week away from the release of 2012's first BCS standings, the top 10 gets a major shakeup as the Harris Poll makes its debut.

After all the complaining about a September schedule that made the NFL preseason seem more meaningful, it took but one blood-letting judgment day to separate college football's wheat from the chaff.


Shutdown Fullback reviews Week 6's biggest games

Into the unquenchable fire went LSU, Georgia and Florida State, teams ranked 3-5 in last week's simulated BCS standings. But their losses are the gains of others, as we now have a clear pecking order of teams poised to contend for this year's BCS championship. And not surprisingly, they're all clustered at the top of the final simulated BCS standings.

This week's standings feature all but one element of the official standings. We have both polls, with the Harris poll being released for the first time this season. We have five of the six computer rankings, with only Peter Wolfe absent, and his ratings are replaced by the median rankings of 56 computers.

Week 7's simulated BCS standings:

Rank Pvs Team Coaches Harris AH CM JS KM Md RB Comp Avg Sim BCS

1 1 Alabama 0.9993 0.9982 7 7 1 7 1 2 0.87 0.9559

2 2 Oregon 0.9566 0.9579 6 6 5 15 5 1 0.82 0.9115

3 6 South Carolina 0.9119 0.908 5 3 3 5 2 3 0.9 0.9066

4 10 West Virginia 0.8786 0.8411 2 4 7 9 6 5 0.82 0.8466

5 9 Florida 0.7898 0.8159 1 2 2 4 3 7 0.93 0.8453

6 7 Notre Dame 0.781 0.7823 3 1 4 2 4 4 0.91 0.8244

7 8 Kansas State 0.8244 0.8336 8 9 6 8 7 6 0.75 0.8027

8 3 LSU 0.6515 0.6729 23 20 8 12 11 8 0.53 0.6181

9 12 Oregon State 0.4685 0.5366 4 5 11 1 14 15 0.7 0.5684

10 4 Georgia 0.5159 0.5423 11 10 12 11 10 10 0.62 0.5594

11 15 USC 0.6373 0.5784 17 22 10 16 9 0.39 0.5352

12 14 Stanford 0.3912 0.4481 10 8 9 14 9 12 0.64 0.4931

13 11 Texas 0.4495 0.4556 18 17 13 6 8 22 0.48 0.4617

14 17 Oklahoma 0.5912 0.5055 14 13 13 0.25 0.4489

15 5 Florida State 0.5553 0.6145 22 13 15 0.15 0.4399

16 19 Mississippi State 0.3783 0.3869 9 12 19 21 17 0.35 0.3717

17 16 Clemson 0.5146 0.4991 23 25 21 0.04 0.3512

18 20 Louisville 0.4258 0.3851 12 14 0.12 0.3103

19 22 Rutgers 0.278 0.2779 16 13 15 20 22 24 0.31 0.2886

20 24 Cincinnati 0.2475 0.1954 15 15 18 23 20 25 0.28 0.241

21 35 Iowa State 0.0495 0.0457 14 11 25 10 19 20 0.4 0.1651

22 28 Boise State 0.1336 0.1186 22 21 16 24 16 0.21 0.154

23 30 Texas A&M 0.141 0.103 21 23 17 12 0.17 0.138

24 18 Texas Tech 0.0075 0.0138 20 19 3 18 19 0.28 0.1004

25 27 Louisiana Tech 0.0888 0.052 13 18 19 0.15 0.0969

26 13 TCU 0.1315 0.1359 23 0 0.0892

27 29 Michigan State 0.0183 0.0428 24 25 24 17 14 0.14 0.067

28 33 Arizona State 0.0414 0.035 21 21 0.05 0.0421

29 31 Ohio 0.0156 0.0382 19 16 0.07 0.0413

30 32 Baylor 0.0353 0.0446 23 18 0.03 0.0366

31 25 Washington 0 0.0042 20 25 11 0.07 0.0247

32 34 Michigan 0.0224 0.0237 17 0 0.0154

33 21 Nebraska 0.0122 0.05 0 0.0129

34 23 Northwestern 0.021 0.0149 0 0.012

35 40 Wisconsin 0.0054 0.0149 0 0.0068

36 NR NC State 0.0041 0.0117 0 0.0052

37 43 Oklahoma State 0.0034 0.011 0 0.0048

38 NR Duke 0.0068 0.0074 0 0.0047

39 NR W. Kentucky 0.0047 0.0018 25 0 0.0022

40 NR Nevada 0.0014 0.0046 0 0.002

41 26 UCLA 0 0.0057 18 0 0.0019

42 NR UL-Lafayette 0.0041 0 0 0.0014

43 38 UL-Monroe 0.002 0.0007 0 0.0009

44 41 San Jose State 0.0027 0 0 0.0009

45 NR California 0 0.0021 0 0.0007

46 45 Toledo 0.0014 0.0004 0 0.0006

47 NR Fresno State 0 0.0014 0 0.0005

47 45 Tulsa 0 0.0014 0 0.0005

49 44 Tennessee 0 0.0011 0 0.0004

50 42 Arizona 0 0.0007 22 0 0.0002

51 45 Virginia Tech 0 0.0007 0 0.0002

52 39 Purdue 0 0 16 0 0

53 36 Missouri 0 0 24 0 0

53 NR Northern Illinois 0 0 24 0 0

Keys: Pvs = Previous Week; Coach = USA Today Coaches Poll; Harris = Harris Interactive Poll; Md = Median ranking of 56 computer ratings; AH = Anderson & Hester; CM = Colley Matrix; JS = Jeff Sagarin; KM = Kenneth Massey; RB = Richard Billingsley; Cp Avg = Computer Average; Yellow indicates top team in BCS conference; Orange indicates top team in non-BCS conference.

Explanation: This rankings method is a simulation of the actual BCS standings with Peter Wolfe's computer rankings, which will not be available until next week, replaced by the median ranking of 56 computer ratings.

The seven top teams are all undefeated, with a significant gap separating No. 7 Kansas State and one-loss LSU at No. 8. But the paths to the championship game for these seven teams - and a few others - are paved with significantly different obstacles:

WIN AND IN

1. Alabama - The Tide are the near-unanimous No. 1 in the polls, on that alone their position is unassailable. This also makes Alabama well-positioned to rebound in the rankings should it lose a game.

3. South Carolina - The Gamecocks will have to run through a gauntlet that began with Georgia and continues with back-to-back road trips to Death Valley and the Swamp. But if they can get by all that unscathed and beat Alabama in the SEC title game, they're a stone-cold lock.

5. Florida - The Ol' Ball Coach's new team stands in the Gators' way of their return to glory. By the way, Florida's last four coaches are a combined 16-0 this season, if Ron Zook hasn't found a way to lose in the CBS Sports studio.

16. Mississippi State - Strange, but not entirely far-fetched. See Auburn, 2010.

WIN AND ALMOST IN

2. Oregon - Though the Ducks are the consensus No. 2 in the polls, they're on slightly shakier ground than an unbeaten SEC champion because of the common-opponent factor with the next team in line. Style points will matter for the most stylishly appareled team in college football.

WIN AND USE THE BRAND

6. Notre Dame - The Irish have a chance to sneak past Oregon, and this is how they can get it done: Go undefeated and beat Stanford and USC more impressively than Oregon does. Both Notre Dame and Oregon host the Cardinal and visit L.A. to take on the Trojans. How they stack up in those games will influence the voters a great deal.

WIN AND NEED HELP

4. West Virginia - Having the Heisman frontrunner will help the Mountaineers' cause, but they're not yet in position to control their own destiny. That the fact the Big 12 does not have a conference title game will hurt WVU or whoever emerges as the champion. And one loss will be fatal as it was for Oklahoma State last year.

8. Kansas State - K-State and Notre Dame both beat the living crap out of Miami, so call that a draw. The Wildcats squeaked by OU in Norman and the Irish will have a chance to do the same later this month. But all things being equal, they're not equal at all. K-State might be the most underrated and under-appreciated program in BCS history, and Notre Dame is just the opposite.

WIN AND NEED EVEN MORE HELP

9. Oregon State - Would an unbeaten Pac-12 champ be kept out of the BCS title game? It could happen if it's Oregon State. The Beavers, who started the season out of the Top 25, have made up a lot of ground. But they have neither the sizzle of West Virginia nor the mass appeal of Notre Dame. Even wins over Oregon and in the Pac-12 title game might not overcome those deficiencies.

NEXT IN LINE

8. LSU - All is not lost for the Tigers after the debacle at the Swamp on Saturday (that is, if they actually can find the end zone again soon). If they run the table the rest of the way, there will be a compelling case made for a one-loss SEC champion to be in the BCS title game as it was in '03, '06, '07 (two losses but "undefeated in regulation"), '08 and '11.

NOT DEAD YET

11. USC - The Trojans still have a pulse, thanks to their remaining schedule that features just enough high-profile games (Oregon, Notre Dame, Pac-12 championship) mixed in with benign winnable affairs that shouldn't pose too much trouble for a team that still has a Heisman Trophy contender in Matt Barkley. In fact, if there are no undefeated teams from the Big 12, USC will regain control of its own destiny for a shot to play in Miami.

12. Stanford - The Cardinal are essentially in the same boat as USC, whom they likely must defeat again to win the Pac-12 if they can navigate a minefield that still includes Notre Dame, Oregon and Oregon State.

LONGSHOT

10. Georgia - The Bulldogs face a much tougher trek to the BCS title game as a one-loss SEC champ. Because its one loss was a huge blowout, Georgia needs a lot of help just to get into the SEC title game, as it's unlikely to win a three-way tiebreaker for the East title against Florida and South Carolina.

NO SHOT

The Big Ten - Your eyes aren't deceiving you, there are no B1G teams ranked in the Top 25 currently, and next week it might become official for the first time in the history of the BCS, going back to 1998. With undefeated Ohio State on postseason ban and ineligible to be included in the BCS, the highest ranked Big Ten team is Michigan State at No. 27, followed by a bunch of teams clustered at Nos. 32 to 35. But one of those outfits will still get to play in Pasadena.

Check the national college football scoreboard right here, and look through SB Nation's many excellent college football blogs to find your team's community.

Check out the SB Nation Channel on YouTube

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join SBNation.com

You must be a member of SBNation.com to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at SBNation.com. You should read them.

Join SBNation.com

You must be a member of SBNation.com to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at SBNation.com. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.