Alabama-LSU, Nebraska-Michigan State, Pitt-Notre Dame, Texas A&M-Mississippi State and two Thursday night games headline this week's round of college football picks. A 7-2 Week 9 (+$480) brings the column back into the black at 60-54 (+$70) on the year. See also: Bill Connelly's formula picks every Week 10 game. Follow @SBNationCFB
College football's Week 10 is a bit of a scary weekend for me, because I don't love many of these wagers, but I had a high number that reached the minimum threshold to warrant a bet.
EMU at Ohio Under 57.5 points: Both of these squads play better defense than offense.
Virginia Tech -1.5 at Miami: The Hurricanes have serious issues against mobile quarterbacks. Virginia Tech needs this game to have tiebreakers over Duke and Miami for the Coastal Division crown. The Hokies will run Logan Thomas early and often.
Alabama at LSU Under 42.5 points: This was a play many of us liked on this week's podcast. While Bama's offense is pretty good, it's not nearly as good as its defense. And LSU's offense has yet to show up. Hopefully special teams turnovers and defensive scores don't push this total higher.
Texas A&M -6.5 at Mississippi State: Mississippi State may have a bit of a hangover after flopping in its huge game at Alabama last weekend. Texas A&M pulled its starters on the road at Auburn. A&M can score a lot of points, and if the Bulldogs come out unfocused this one could be over early.
Pitt +17 at Notre Dame: Hangover game, anyone? Notre Dame is clearly the superior team, and what Pitt does on offense actually plays into Notre Dame's hands. But the Irish simply have not blown teams out this year, and I think the Panthers have a shot to keep this close.
Washington at Cal Under 52.5 points: I like the defense played by Washington, and Cal has serious trouble scoring. Plus, this number is a bit inflated by last week's Utah score, which was aided by 21 points via special teams or defense for the Utes. That wasn't on Cal's defense.
Clemson at Duke Over 65 points:This may turn into a sucker bet if Duke's QB cannot go, but Clemson's offense has been clicking and its defense, while improved, still isn't anything to write home about.
Penn State at Purdue +3.5: This seems like a trap game, so I'll go opposite of the trap.
Air Force at Army Over 61.5 points: I expect Army to keep this one in the single digits, which should force both teams to keep scoring and not sit on the football.
Missouri at Florida Under 42 points: Both of these teams feature far better defense than offense. This noon game in Gainesville has letdown written all over it, except for the fact that Missouri cannot score.
Nebraska at Michigan State Under 45 points: Another week brings yet another wager of Under involving Michigan State. You know the drill: The Spartans cannot score, regardless of opponent, but do play rock solid defense.
Illinois at Ohio State Under 52 points: Ohio State's offense can be explosive, but is a bit overrated after last week's outburst that was keyed by special teams and defense. Illinois' offense is scary in a bad way.
Miami (OH) at Buffalo -3.5: This is another trap line. When the majority of the public is backing an underdog in the MAC, take the favorite. Vegas knows something here.
Ole Miss at UGA Over 62 points: Will Georgia's defense be disciplined and focused in practice this week to battle Ole Miss' spread attack on Saturday? Will Ole Miss play defense for the first time this season? I'm betting no on both, and thus have the over here.
Washington State at Utah Under 49 points: Utah scored 21 non-offensive points last week thanks to two kick returns and an interception. Washington State's offense just isn't quite there yet under Mike Leach.
Michigan at Minnesota Under 47 points: Minnesota's defense is perhaps a bit underrated, and Michigan's has quietly hit its stride. This game could be played in some nasty weather.