College football rankings, Week 15: Sagarin BCS doesn't give NIU, Boise State a chance

Dave Reginek

Full BCS standings will come out at 8:35 p.m. ET Sunday night, but for now, all we can do is try to piece together the polls and computer rankings that come out throughout the day. Projected BCS standings here.

The BCS' six computer ranking systems will combine to decide one third of the final, official BCS rankings on Sunday night. So far, the only one publicly available is Jeff Sagarin's ELO CHESS system, which eliminates margin of victory from his much better, actual rankings, according with the BCS' very silly rules.

There are no surprises at the top, with Florida's very strong computer ratings continuing to give it the advantage over Georgia it might end up needing in order to ensure itself of a No. 3 BCS spot and thus a Sugar Bowl bid. The Dawgs remain far back, at No. 9, and look like they'd need an overwhelming show of support from the two human polls in order to get into the BCS -- not likely.

There's little drama here anywhere else except for the middle of the rankings. Northern Illinois, the team looking to finish No. 16 in the full rankings, gets no help from Sagarin, ranking outside the top 25*, just like last week, this time at No. 32. Boise State ranks No. 43, and no other non-AQs has a chance of crashing the BCS. Both good pieces of news for Oklahoma fans, as their team appears to be the one very likely to take that final BCS spot if NIU can't go.

* Only top 25 computer rankings count toward the BCS.

This week's Top 25 from the BCS component of Sagarin's ratings:

  1. Notre Dame
  2. Florida
  3. Alabama
  4. Kansas State
  5. Oregon
  6. Stanford
  7. LSU
  8. South Carolina
  9. Georgia
  10. Ohio State
  11. Oklahoma
  12. Texas A&M
  13. Oregon State
  14. Texas
  15. Michigan
  16. Nebraska
  17. UCLA
  18. USC
  19. Oklahoma State
  20. Arizona
  21. West Virginia
  22. Florida State
  23. Baylor
  24. San Jose State
  25. Washington
Northern Illinois ranks No. 32, Boise State No. 43.

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