BCS rankings breakdown, Week 9: Oregon vs. Florida State is the new battle

Steve Dykes

Florida State has the numbers advantage at the moment, but Oregon has the schedule ace up its sleeve. Also, looking ahead to next week and what the Playoff would look like if we had one right now.

The first BCS standings of the season were released on Sunday night. The Alabama Crimson Tide came in at No. 1, while Florida State, fresh off a huge road win over Clemson, is ranked No. 2, putting the Noles in the middle of the national championship race. The Oregon Ducks are third, just .0028 points behind FSU and comfortably ahead of Ohio State. The Missouri Tigers are fifth.

After knocking off UCLA over the weekend, Stanford is sixth. Miami and Baylor, who are both yet to lose this season, are No. 7 and No. 8, respectively. Clemson and Texas Tech round out the top 10.

BCS Harris Poll USA Today Computer Rankings
RK TEAM AVG 2012 RK PTS % RK PTS % AVG A&H RB CM KM JS PW %
1 Alabama .9841 2 1 2615 .9962 1 1544 .9961 2 2 1 3 3 2 1 .960
2 Florida State .9348 12 3 2401 .9147 3 1410 .9097 1 1 5 2 1 1 2 .980
3 Oregon .9320 4 2 2520 .9600 2 1482 .9561 4 4 2 4 4 4 4 .880
4 Ohio State .8553 NR 4 2321 .8842 4 1382 .8916 5 5 3 5 8 8 7 .790
5 Missouri .8219 NR 6 2026 .7718 7 1184 .7639 3 3 6 1 2 3 3 .930
6 Stanford .7414 6 8 1952 .7436 8 1117 .7206 6 6 4 6 6 15 10 .760
7 Miami (FL) .7200 NR 7 2008 .7650 6 1186 .7652 10 8 21 12 9 12 8 .630
8 Baylor .7120 NR 5 2038 .7764 5 1255 .8097 12 9 11 11 15 14 13 .550
9 Clemson .6249 14 10 1616 .6156 10 913 .5890 9 10 7 8 10 13 9 .670
10 Texas Tech .6220 NR 9 1662 .6331 9 981 .6329 11 11 14 10 12 10 11 .600
11 Auburn .5058 NR 15 1105 .4210 17 537 .3465 7 7 17 7 5 9 6 .750
12 UCLA .4807 17 11 1323 .5040 11 710 .4581 14 15 16 19 13 11 12 .480
13 LSU .4552 8 12 1212 .4617 13 688 .4439 15 14 9 17 11 19 16 .460
14 Virginia Tech .4408 NR 19 841 .3204 19 499 .3219 8 13 NR 9 7 7 5 .680
15 Oklahoma .4204 11 14 1110 .4229 12 695 .4484 16 12 8 15 19 20 19 .390
16 Texas A&M .3666 9 13 1177 .4484 15 622 .4013 18 22 18 22 16 22 17 .250
17 Fresno State .3379 NR 18 920 .3505 18 532 .3432 17 16 NR 14 NR 16 14 .320
18 Northern Illinois .3032 15 21 518 .1973 22 298 .1923 13 19 10 13 14 5 15 .520
19 Oklahoma State .2687 NR 17 951 .3623 13 688 .4439 28 25 NR NR NR NR NR .000
20 Louisville .2556 21 16 1046 .3985 16 571 .3684 28 NR 15 NR NR NR NR .000
21 South Carolina .2161 10 20 673 .2564 20 468 .3019 26 24 19 NR 22 NR 23 .090
22 Michigan .1637 18 22 415 .1581 23 268 .1729 21 17 20 16 NR NR 25 .160
23 UCF .1394 NR 25 238 .0907 25 151 .0974 19 23 13 23 NR 17 18 .230
24 Nebraska .1354 16 23 414 .1577 21 385 .2484 28 NR NR NR NR NR NR .000
25 Oregon State .1042 13 NR 168 .0640 NR 91 .0587 20 NR 22 24 18 6 21 .190

Reactions

Our writers over at Roll Bama Roll weren't surprised with the No. 1 ranking. Why should they be?

From our Florida State site, Tomahawk Nation:

Addicted To Quack wasn't too happy with being ranked third, but knows there's plenty of season left.

Land-Grant Holy Land, which covers Ohio State, accepts its current predicament:

Many are pointing to opponent injuries as the reason Mizzou is ranked 5th. Rock M Nation isn't having it.

And as Matt Hinton explains, the debate for the rest of the year (or until somebody loses) is Florida State vs. Oregon:

As long as both teams are winning, of course, the debate will never be "resolved" among the non-voting public, and probably shouldn't be. Within the system, though, Florida State still has more reason for concern going forward: Frankly, if trashing another top-five contender by 37 points on its own field isn't enough to get them to No. 2 in the human polls, good lord, what is? FSU isn't exactly putting it into cruise control with Miami and Florida waiting over the second half of the season, and the ACC Championship Game looming at the end. But Oregon's schedule gets even steeper against UCLA, Stanford, Utah, Arizona and Oregon State, leading up to (presumably) the Pac-12 title game. If the preference for the Ducks holds in the human polls – which it almost certainly will as long as they keep winning – the computers will fall in line soon enough.

Week 9 impact

No. 3 Oregon vs. No. 12 UCLA: If Oregon wins out, they're likely headed to the BCS National Championship, given their strength of schedule advantage over FSU. The Bruins are coming off a tough loss to Stanford, but they're still in the running for the Pac-12 South title.

No. 5 Missouri vs. No. 21 South Carolina: In a battle of teams from Columbia, Maty Mauk will look to keep Mizzou's magical run going. Gamecocks quarterback Connor Shaw is likely to miss the game with a knee sprain. A win for the Tigers would all but wrap up the SEC East title, barring a historic collapse.

No. 10 Texas Tech at No. 15 Oklahoma: The unbeaten Red Raiders have been one of the surprise stories of the season and will need to play mistake-free football if they're going to escape Norman with a win.

No. 6 Stanford at No. 25 Oregon State: A lot of people wrote off the Beavers after they lost to Eastern Washington in their season opener. OSU is back to firing on all cylinders now, though, and they'll have a chance to move back into the top 20 with a win over the Cardinal.

No. 1 Alabama vs. Tennessee: If the Crimson Tide keep winning, they'll have a shot to win their third straight national title. The Volunteers will give Bama everything they've got after stunning South Carolina over the weekend.

BCS bowl picture

If the season ended right this minute, the BCS bowl picture would likely look like this:

  • BCS National Championship: Alabama vs. Florida State
  • Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Stanford
  • Sugar Bowl: Missouri vs. Texas Tech
  • Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oregon
  • Fiesta Bowl: Baylor vs. UCF

Head here for full bowl projections based on the long-term, not just on how things stand at the moment.

What about the College Football Playoff?

The College Football Playoff won't begin until next year. That being said, it's never too early to do a mock-up of what would happen in 2013 if the season ended right now. Here's Team Speed Kills' projection, which is explained in depth here:

  • Sugar Bowl semifinal: Alabama vs. Ohio State
  • Rose Bowl semifinal: Florida State vs. Oregon
  • Orange Bowl: Miami vs. Missouri
  • Fiesta Bowl: Stanford vs. Fresno State
  • Cotton Bowl: Baylor vs. Auburn
  • Chick-fil-A Bowl: Clemson vs. Texas Tech

More from SB Nation college football:

Alabama, FSU top Oregon in year’s first BCS rankings

The Top Whatever: Spencer Hall ranks only the teams that matter

New bowl projections: FSU or Oregon to meet Alabama?

All of Saturday’s scores: Top 25 shredded

What if we’d had this Playoff committee from 1998 to 2012?

Daily college football news headlines

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