If Alabama and Florida State win out, they'll meet in Pasadena. Unless FSU somehow struggles with all of its weak schedule down the stretch and Baylor, Ohio State or Stanford puts together a streak of colossal blowouts, the unbeaten 'Noles will meet the Tide. And even in that unlikely scenario, FSU should be fine.
Updated bowl projections, with explanations and notes on the rest of the fallout below -- as always, let me know what you think in the comments.
|Bowl||Matchup (not always tied to conference standings)||Team||Team|
|1/6/2014||BCS National Championship (Pasadena)||BCS 1 vs. BCS 2||Alabama||Florida State|
|1/3/2014||Orange (Miami)||Florida State replacement vs. At-large 1||Clemson||Oregon|
|1/2/2014||Sugar (New Orleans)||Alabama replacement vs. At-large 2||Auburn||UCF|
|1/1/2014||Rose (Pasadena)||Pac-12 1 vs. Big Ten 1||Ohio State||Stanford|
|1/1/2014||Fiesta (Glendale, AZ)||Big 12 1 vs. At-large 3||Baylor||Fresno State|
|1/5/2014||GoDaddy (Mobile, AL)||MAC 2 vs. Sun Belt 2||Ball State||Western Kentucky|
|1/4/2014||BBVA Compass (B'ham)||SEC 9 vs. AAC 5||Vanderbilt||Rutgers|
|1/3/2014||Cotton (Arlington)||Big 12 2 vs. SEC 3||Oklahoma State||Missouri|
|1/1/2014||Capital One (Orlando)||Big Ten 2 vs. SEC 2||Wisconsin||Texas A&M|
|1/1/2014||Gator (Jacksonville)||Big Ten 4 vs. SEC 6||Minnesota||Ole Miss|
|1/1/2014||Heart of Dallas||Big Ten 7 vs. Big 12 8||Iowa||Notre Dame*|
|1/1/2014||Outback (Tampa)||Big Ten 3 vs. SEC 4||Michigan State||LSU|
|12/31/2013||Chick-fil-A (Atlanta)||ACC 2 vs. SEC 5||Virginia Tech||South Carolina|
|12/31/2013||Independence (Shreveport)||SEC 10 vs. ACC 7||ULM*||Pitt|
|12/31/2013||Liberty (Memphis)||C-USA 1 vs. SEC 8||North Texas||Tennessee|
|12/31/2013||Sun (El Paso)||ACC 4 vs. Pac-12 4||Miami||UCLA|
|12/30/2013||Alamo (San Antonio)||Big 12 3 vs. Pac-12 2||Texas||Arizona State|
|12/30/2013||Armed Forces (Ft. Worth)||MWC 3 vs. C-USA 3/Navy||San Diego State||Navy|
|12/30/2013||Holiday (San Diego)||Pac-12 3 vs. Big 12 5||USC||Texas Tech|
|12/30/2013||Music City (Nashville)||ACC 6 vs. SEC 7||Boston College||Georgia|
|12/28/2013||Belk (Charlotte)||AAC 3 vs. ACC 5||Houston||Georgia Tech|
|12/28/2013||Buffalo Wild Wings (PHX)||Big 12 4 vs. Big Ten 5||Oklahoma||Nebraska|
|12/28/2013||Pinstripe (New York)||Big 12 7 vs. AAC 4||West Virginia||Cincinnati|
|12/28/2013||Russell Athletic (Orlando)||AAC 2 vs. ACC 3||Louisville||Duke|
|12/27/2013||Kraft (San Francisco)||Pac-12 6 vs. BYU/ACC 9||Washington||BYU**|
|12/27/2013||Military (Annapolis)||ACC 8 vs. C-USA 5||Utah*||East Carolina|
|12/27/2013||Texas (Houston)||Big 12 6 vs. Big Ten 6||Kansas State||Michigan|
|12/26/2013||Little Caesars (Detroit)||MAC 1 vs. Big Ten 8||Northern Illinois||Middle Tennessee*|
|12/26/2013||Poinsettia (San Diego)||MWC 2 vs. Army||Utah State||Texas State*|
|12/24/2013||Hawaii||MWC 5 vs. C-USA 2||San Jose State||Rice|
|12/23/2013||Beef O'Brady's (St. Pete.)||AAC 6 vs. C-USA 4||Arkansas State*||Marshall|
|12/21/2013||Idaho Potato (Boise)||MAC 3 vs. MWC 6||Buffalo||Colorado State|
|12/21/2013||Las Vegas||MWC 1 vs. Pac-12 5||Boise State||Arizona|
|12/21/2013||New Mexico (Albuquerque)||MWC 4 vs. Pac-12 7||UNLV||Oregon State|
|12/21/2013||New Orleans||Sun Belt 1 vs. C-USA 6||UL Lafayette||Tulane|
*: Filling in for another conference.
**: Already accepted bid.
Bold: In a better place than last week.
Italic: In a worse place than last week.
The first major shakeup of the season turns out nicely for the ACC. Not only is Florida State now in line for the national title game, the Orange gets two of the first three picks, since it gets to replace FSU and goes first in the at-large order. As the Orange is essentially an ACC bowl moving forward in the Playoff system, Clemson's the natural choice at 11-1 or 10-2, and a one-loss Oregon is the other.
Whether the Orange picks those first or third likely wouldn't matter, since the Sugar will prefer to keep its SEC ties. I've had Texas A&M going to the Sugar for a while now, since it'll likely be Johnny Manziel's last game (and the Sugar will need something to make up for the lack of national interest in UCF football), but now I think the Aggies lose at least to LSU and slip out of the BCS top 14, meaning they'd be ineligible.
Either Auburn or Missouri would make for a decent choice, but Mizzou fans will have just traveled to the SEC Championship Game to see their team lose to Alabama in this scenario. Auburn fans still have their whole postseason travel budgets to spend.
And with that, the BCS bowls would be set, assuming Fresno State makes it in by ranking either in the top 12 or in the top 14 and ahead of an AQ champion. Since the Big 12, Big Ten and Pac-12 champions have their spots locked up, and the American champion (likely UCF) is guaranteed an at-large spot, that's that.
The rest of the Oregon impact
Since Oregon's loss likely opens up room for another ACC team (and Oregon itself is unlikely to fall out of the BCS), the Big Ten and Big 12 see their bowl pictures worsen.
Last week, I had either Wisconsin or Michigan State in the Orange, but now the whole Big Ten gets bumped down a spot or so. The Big 12 also has very little chance of getting a team in besides its conference champion.
That could also hurt Notre Dame, which looks like it's counting on one of the two Heart of Dallas spots not being filled by that game's conference ties in order to land in a game with decent exposure against a respectable opponent. If both the Big Ten and the Big 12 are able to fill that game, the Irish are really going to go slumming, since they don't have a tie to any bowl this year.
Also, the whole ACC moving up means Clemson's out of the Chick-fil-A, meaning South Carolina can go there now.