Week 14 college football picks: Bama runs over Auburn, Trojans over Bruins

4-4 week brings my season record to 115-106 (52 percent, +$234). Yuck. 55 percent is the goal and the line at which a nice profit is made, and I'll need a big run to get back to that mark. Visit OddsShark.com for trends throughout the week.

With a short slate, I'll discuss all games, instead of the regular custom of ranked teams.

  • I think Texas A&M's defense is absolutely terrible, and that Missouri's could have some trouble stopping Johnny Football. Let's have an old-fashioned Big 12 shootout to decide the SEC East.
  • Auburn has been incredibly lucky this year, winning five games by single digits. I look for Alabama to be able to run the football, and for Auburn to be unable to take enough advantage of the Tide's corners. A.J. McCarron is a winner, and isn't going to lose to Auburn as a starter.
  • USC seems to be playing up to its talent level, and its excellent defensive line matches up quite nice with the young, inexperienced offensive line of the UCLA Bruins.
  • I do not think Nebraska should be favored over Iowa. While I don't think Iowa is a great team, it does have a distinct advantage on both lines of scrimmage, and Nebraska is overvalued due to a large amount of recent luck.
  • Stanford's offense might look ahead to the Pac-12 title game, but I don't think its defense will take the day off. I look for a game played in the 40s against Notre Dame.
  • Ole Miss has mounting offensive line concerns, and Mississippi State has trouble scoring. This could be an ugly, physical Egg Bowl played in the 40s.
  • I think Georgia Tech should be favored over Georgia. The Bulldogs have an undisciplined defense, and are limping into this game without Aaron Murray. And I think the Yellow Jackets will have the motivation edge here, having lost 10 of 11 to Mark Richt.
  • Arizona State's defense is underrated, and it is without Marion Grice. Combine that with an underrated Arizona defense, and there is value in the under.
  • TCU can play the sort of man coverage that can disrupt Baylor's offense a bit, and I can't imagine Baylor, which just lost one of the biggest games in program history, will be up for this one like it was for last week.
  • I think San Jose State can take down Fresno State. The longer Fresno stays undefeated despite not playing like an elite team, the more value is created against the Bulldogs.

More from SB Nation college football:

Thanksgiving weekend TV schedule: Iron Bowl leads Hate Week

Maybe the best This Week In Schadenfreude ever

Five things Auburn will need to beat Alabama

College football news | Lawyers still battling over Jameis Winston

Long CFB reads | The night Baylor died in Stillwater

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