Updated 2013 bowl projections, Week 10: Table set before huge Week 11

Steve Dykes

We might never know whether Florida State is better than Oregon. But we think we know which one is going to Pasadena if both remain perfect. That said, Week 11 could break everything.

What question do you ask yourself when trying to decide whether one team is better than another?

Here's what I fall back on: if the two played each other 10 times, either on a neutral field or as a home-and-home, which one wins more games? It's a helpful exercise because it forces you to overlook some ifs -- if the ball bounces a certain way, if this team gets an early lead, if that quarterback gets rattled, and so on. The fewer ifs, the better, when we're taking the long view.

At the moment, I think Alabama beats Florida State six times out of 10 and Florida State does the same to Oregon (and numbers suggest it could be more like seven). It's so close, though, that Alabama-Oregon also feels like a six-out-of-10 for the Tide. The Noles are simply more complete than the Ducks, with a better defense and better lines. As far as I can figure, FSU is the country's second-best team and boasts the best résumé, which are two different things.

The problem for the Seminoles is that Oregon's résumé has a chance to get even better. Whether you go by records, rankings, stats, or what have you, Oregon's schedule the rest of the way is tougher than FSU's. If both stay perfect and Oregon doesn't struggle more than once, that's likely that.

Bowl projections

As always, bowl trips aren't entirely about which team has a better conference record or which team beat which team. Every bowl exists to make money, so attendance and television draws are at least as important as team quality.

Also, teams don't always move up or down based strictly on how they played last week. For instance, South Carolina didn't do anything wrong in beating Mississippi State by two scores -- Ole Miss simply looks like a more exciting draw right now if both finish with eight or nine wins, plus we've got a Clemson-South Carolina rematch to avoid. Let's hit the comments to discuss!

(Also, in Conference USA, I had East Carolina taking a top bowl, which I've changed. The Pirates, along with Tulane, are leaving for the American next year, and conferences don't tend to give great bowls to teams on the way out. See the Big East sticking Pitt in Birmingham yet again last year, instead of giving us one last Backyard Brawl with West Virginia in the Pinstripe.)

Bowl Matchup (not necessarily tied to conference standings) Team Team
1/6/2014 BCS National Championship (Pasadena) BCS 1 vs. BCS 2 Alabama Oregon
1/3/2014 Orange (Miami) ACC 1 vs. At-large 1 Florida State Michigan State**
1/2/2014 Sugar (New Orleans) SEC 1 vs. At-large 2 Texas A&M UCF
1/1/2014 Rose (Pasadena) Pac-12 1 vs. Big Ten 1 (At-large 3) Ohio State Stanford
1/1/2014 Fiesta (Glendale, AZ) Big 12 1 vs. At-large 4 Baylor Fresno State
1/5/2014 GoDaddy (Mobile, AL) MAC 2 vs. Sun Belt 2 Ball State Western Kentucky
1/4/2014 BBVA Compass (B'ham) SEC 9 vs. AAC 5 Florida Rutgers
1/3/2014 Cotton (Arlington) Big 12 2 vs. SEC 3 Oklahoma Missouri
1/1/2014 Capital One (Orlando) Big Ten 2 vs. SEC 2 Wisconsin** Auburn
1/1/2014 Gator (Jacksonville) Big Ten 4 vs. SEC 6 Minnesota South Carolina
1/1/2014 Heart of Dallas Big Ten 7 vs. Big 12 8 West Virginia Utah*
1/1/2014 Outback (Tampa) Big Ten 3 vs. SEC 4 Michigan LSU
12/31/2013 Chick-fil-A (Atlanta) ACC 2 vs. SEC 5 Clemson Ole Miss
12/31/2013 Independence (Shreveport) SEC 10 vs. ACC 7 Vanderbilt Boston College
12/31/2013 Liberty (Memphis) C-USA 1 vs. SEC 8 North Texas Tennessee
12/31/2013 Sun (El Paso) ACC 4 vs. Pac-12 4 Georgia Tech UCLA
12/30/2013 Alamo (San Antonio) Big 12 3 vs. Pac-12 2 Oklahoma State Arizona State
12/30/2013 Armed Forces (Ft. Worth) MWC 3 vs. C-USA 3/Navy San Diego State Navy
12/30/2013 Holiday (San Diego) Pac-12 3 vs. Big 12 5 USC Texas
12/30/2013 Music City (Nashville) ACC 6 vs. SEC 7 Virginia Tech Georgia
12/28/2013 Belk (Charlotte) AAC 3 vs. ACC 5 Houston Duke
12/28/2013 Buffalo Wild Wings (PHX) Big 12 4 vs. Big Ten 5 Texas Tech Iowa
12/28/2013 Pinstripe (New York) Big 12 7 vs. AAC 4 Notre Dame* Cincinnati
12/28/2013 Russell Athletic (Orlando) AAC 2 vs. ACC 3 Louisville Miami
12/27/2013 Kraft (San Francisco) Pac-12 6 vs. BYU/ACC 9 Washington BYU
12/27/2013 Military (Annapolis) ACC 8 vs. C-USA 5 Maryland East Carolina
12/27/2013 Texas (Houston) Big 12 6 vs. Big Ten 6 Kansas State Nebraska
12/26/2013 Little Caesars (Detroit) MAC 1 vs. Big Ten 8 Northern Illinois ULM*
12/26/2013 Poinsettia (San Diego) MWC 2 vs. Army Utah State Ohio*
12/24/2013 Hawaii MWC 5 vs. C-USA 2 Bowling Green* Rice
12/23/2013 Beef O'Brady's (St. Pete.) AAC 6 vs. C-USA 4 Toledo* Marshall
12/21/2013 Idaho Potato (Boise) MAC 3 vs. MWC 6 Buffalo Texas State*
12/21/2013 Las Vegas MWC 1 vs. Pac-12 5 Boise State Oregon State
12/21/2013 New Mexico (Albuquerque) MWC 4 vs. Pac-12 7 San Jose State Arizona
12/21/2013 New Orleans Sun Belt 1 vs. C-USA 6 UL Lafayette Tulane

Bold: Team moved up since last week.

Italics: Team moved down since last week.

*: Filling in for another conference.

**: Update: Michigan State and Wisconsin switch after the release of the BCS standings. Wisconsin's still No. 24, with a long way to go to the top 14, while the Spartans have jumped to No. 17 and have the computer numbers to make a top-10 push.

BCS bowls

More or less the same story as the last two weeks. If Alabama and Oregon win out, they'll very likely play for the national championship, and I think they'll both win out. Florida State is as good as either of them and deserves a chance if it stays perfect, but that's not the system.

Texas A&M remains the Sugar's replacement for Alabama, since if it can finish in the top 14, nobody's passing on Johnny Manziel's last game, whether LSU beats A&M or South Carolina beats Clemson or whatever else. The Rose still takes a potentially top-five Stanford, for now.

The Orange could be the only bowl left with an actual choice, and though Michigan State is my personal favorite team this year (and a huge challenge for Ohio State in the likely Big Ten Championship), a 10-2 Wisconsin promises too many points. Bowls love points. Other potential picks include Notre Dame, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State (and even Louisville), but I see those teams dropping games along the way.

After that, if Fresno State finishes ranked in the top 16 and ahead of the lowest AQ-conference champion or in the top 12, UCF (or Louisville or Houston) and the Bulldogs are your last two BCS bowl at-large picks, period. If they don't go, Clemson and Miami are on the table (since the Orange won't pair two ACC teams), in addition to the others above.

What can change next week?

With only a handful of games actually impacting the top of the standings in Week 10, let's look ahead. This weekend was a nice break, but things get real now.

Stanford can make Florida State a rock-solid No. 2 by beating Oregon on Thursday night. The Cardinal would also become both the Rose Bowl favorite and a couple losses away from a national title trip of their own. That same night, Oklahoma can all but steal Baylor's Fiesta Bowl trip and knock the Bears out of the championship hunt for good.

Saturday, LSU might have the best chance of anybody left on Alabama's schedule of preventing another Tide title shot. I don't know how far Bama would fall with a loss, but a trip to the SEC Championship would still likely be in the cards, and a one-loss SEC champ can never be ruled out.

Elsewhere at the top, Florida State travels to Wake Forest (needing another blowout win if Oregon beats Stanford), Ohio State is off, Miami battles Virginia Tech and tries to earn a FSU rematch, and Missouri and Auburn hit the road to play Kentucky and Tennessee.

Both potential BCS-busters Fresno State and Northern Illinois have very tough games coming up. The Bulldogs travel to a Wyoming team that scores a lot of points, but just fired its defensive coordinator. NIU is off, but gets Ball State, likely the MAC's second-best team, the following Wednesday.

Your turn

How would you line 'em up right now, and what could be changing for you in the next few weeks?

More from SB Nation college football:

At the scene of the SEC’s newest bitter rivalry

New BCS projections: Can Noles reclaim No. 2 from Oregon?

Every FBS score: FSU, Michigan State, Georgia win the day

Opening lines: Bama, Oregon, Baylor favored in next week’s huge games

• Long read: Inside Chip Kelly’s New Hampshire laboratory

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