A 7-9 week brings my season record to 92-79 (54 percent, +$789). 55 percent is the goal and the line at which a nice profit is made, so last week was certainly disappointing after a strong October run. Visit OddsShark.com for trends throughout the week.
As usual, I write on the games involving ranked teams, and will discuss any other games in the comments.
- Oklahoma cannot get out of its own way on offense. When picking against Baylor, I need the opposing offense to have minimal unforced errors. Oklahoma is basically the opposite of that. I think the Bears will roll and that Oklahoma will not have enough pass rush.
- Stanford and double digits at home? The offense scares me in a way that makes me think I'll lose my money. But the defense and the special teams are awesome. If Marcus Mariota has a Heisman night, I'll lose. But Stanford's defense is legit.
- Arizona State is both under- and overrated. Overrated because they beat Wisconsin literally on a bad call that prevented the Badgers from kicking the field goal to win a game. Underrated because they're the third-best team in the Pac-12 and teams like UCLA and Washington have received the hype this year.
- Louisville laying four touchdowns at UConn? What does Louisville have to play for now that it lost at home to UCF? I'll fade here and take the Huskies.
- Missouri feels primed for a letdown at Kentucky, and I am aware how bad Kentucky is. This seems like Vegas knows something and is begging for Missouri money. I'll take the Wildcats.
- Auburn is better than I thought, but this feels like another trap game at Tennessee. The Volunteers at home have been much better than on the road. I'll go with Big Orange.
- Wake Forest losing Michael Campanaro is a very big deal. Noles big.
- Somehow, Texas Tech is still ranked. I cashed in against them in recent weeks, and the Red Raiders are just nothing special. Kansas State's ball control offense springs the upset.
- Mississippi State does a good job of stopping the run and running the football. I look for the Bulldogs to hang tough for a half against Texas A&M.
- Virginia Tech's defense is just as good as Florida State's. Miami does not have Duke Johnson. I look for the Hokies to get back in the Coastal Division race.
- UCF is a lot better than Houston, and is playing for a BCS bid. Knights roll. I love Central Florida's offensive balance.
- UCLA's offense has a lot of trouble with its offensive line, and Brett Hundley is overrated. Arizona in the desert pulls the very slight upset.