BCS standings reaction, Week 15: SEC's championship streak all but done

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

With Auburn upsetting Alabama over the weekend, it's becoming more and more likely that two non-SEC teams play for the national title next month.

The last time an SEC school didn't win the BCS National Championship was 2006, when Vince Young and the Texas Longhorns knocked off Matt Leinart and the USC Trojans. With the national title game set to return to Pasadena in January, we may see the SEC's championship streak come to an end.

Florida State and Ohio State sit atop the new BCS standings, as expected. Auburn came in at No. 3, just ahead of fellow SEC programs Alabama and Missouri.

At this point, most BCS gurus are at a consensus: if the Seminoles and Buckeyes win their respective conference championship games, they'll play for the national championship in January. Even if Auburn blows out No. 5 Missouri and Ohio State squeaks one out against Michigan State, the Buckeyes should have enough of a buffer between the navy and blue Tigers to play for the title. Emphasis on should. But this is the BCS, where weird, weird things tend to happen.

BCS Harris Poll Coaches Poll Computer rankings
Rank Team Avg. Prev. Rank Points % Rank Points % AVG A&H RB CM KM JS PW %
1 Florida State .9948 2 1 2617 .9970 1 1546 .9974 1 1 1 4 2 1 1 .990
2 Ohio State .9503 3 2 2488 .9478 2 1462 .9432 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 .960
3 Auburn .9233 4 3 2422 .9227 3 1437 .9271 3 3 3 1 3 6 3 .920
4 Alabama .8539 1 4 2262 .8617 4 1333 .8600 4 5 4 8 4 7 4 .840
5 Missouri .8428 5 5 2231 .8499 5 1315 .8484 5 4 5 3 7 8 5 .830
6 Oklahoma State .7629 7 6 2083 .7935 6 1248 .8052 9 8 7 9 15 5 11 .690
7 Stanford .7069 8 7 1873 .7135 10 1034 .6671 7 7 6 6 8 10 9 .740
8 South Carolina .7037 10 8 1841 .7013 7 1100 .7097 8 10 10 7 10 4 7 .700
9 Baylor .6623 9 9 1778 .6773 7 1100 .7097 12 9 8 11 13 12 12 .600
10 Michigan State .6529 11 10 1758 .6697 9 1037 .6690 11 12 13 10 9 11 8 .620
11 Arizona State .5833 12 13 1277 .4865 13 765 .4935 6 6 11 5 6 9 6 .770
12 Oregon .5321 13 12 1398 .5326 12 843 .5439 13 11 14 12 12 15 14 .520
13 Clemson .5201 6 11 1444 .5501 11 853 .5503 14 16 12 15 14 16 13 .460
14 Northern Illinois .4812 14 15 1104 .4206 18 547 .3529 10 18 9 13 5 2 10 .670
15 LSU .4213 17 14 1258 .4792 14 720 .4645 17 20 18 19 16 18 17 .320
16 UCF .3858 19 18 967 .3684 17 572 .3690 16 15 15 16 19 14 16 .420
17 Oklahoma .3808 18 16 1041 .3966 15 660 .4258 17 14 16 17 25 20 19 .320
18 UCLA .3506 22 19 779 .2968 19 473 .3052 15 13 19 14 11 17 15 .450
19 Louisville .2630 20 17 1013 .3859 16 625 .4032 28 NR 17 NR NR NR NR .000
20 Duke .2252 24 20 620 .2362 20 402 .2594 21 24 20 18 NR 19 23 .180
21 Wisconsin .1988 15 21 485 .1848 21 266 .1716 20 21 22 21 18 13 20 .240
22 Georgia .1143 NR 25 148 .0564 NR 41 .0265 19 19 NR 20 17 21 18 .260
23 Fresno State .1006 16 22 428 .1630 22 215 .1387 28 NR NR NR NR NR NR .000
24 Texas A&M .0995 21 23 290 .1105 25 121 .0781 23 NR 24 25 22 22 21 .110
25 Texas .0666 NR 24 167 .0636 24 149 .0961 25 22 21 NR NR NR NR .040

Reactions

Florida State

The Seminoles haven't been ranked No. 1 in 13 years. Even if they lay a stinker against Duke and sneak out with an ugly win, is there any way they wouldn't play for the national title? Tomahawk Nation doesn't think so.

Ohio State

Land-Grant Holy Land took an in-depth look on how voters have historically viewed undefeated teams.

None the less, expect a lot of idle chatter between now and next weekend. If Auburn does anything more than win by an undeniable margin, the talk may become little more than a vocal minority sooner rather than later. If they do (and particularly if Ohio State follows that up with a less than style point rich win over Michigan State), the Buckeyes will still have history on their side, but you'd certainly have every reason to not love the scenario of having to leave it up to the collective Russian judge, as it were.

ESPN's Kirk Herbstreit is one of the many who thinks OSU is safe from being leapfrogged if they can beat Michigan State.

Auburn

The Tiger analysts at College and Magnolia are keeping the faith that Auburn could jump Ohio State with an impressive win over Mizzou. Why? The computers think highly of AU.

Ohio State (.9503) is .027 points ahead of Auburn (.9233), and a win over the SEC East's Tigers in the conference championship game could push Gus Malzahn's team over the top. It might not be likely, but the final standings would be close, and we're telling you there's a chance.

The computers really like the Tigers. Auburn is third in the standings behind No. 2 Ohio State in the computer rankings, and based on next week's games -- the Tigers have No. 5 Missouri; the Buckeyes have No. 10 Michigan State -- Auburn should finish ahead of OSU, according to the computers. Missouri is fifth in the computer rankings, while Michigan State is 12th.

It may not be probable, but as they say, there's a chance, and weirder things have happened with the BCS.

Missouri

The black and gold Tigers aren't out of the national title race, but they'll need some help. On Saturday, the Mizzou faithful will be scoreboard-watching.

If MU beats Auburn and Florida State or Ohio State lose, the Tigers would leap Alabama and play for the national title, no matter if they win by one point or 50 points. The top-five win would push them over the Crimson Tide.

Baylor

Two weeks ago, the Baylor Bears were legitimate championship contenders. While they won't be playing in Pasadena this year, Our Daily Bears is more than happy with what the team has accomplished this season. They still have an outside shot at a BCS bowl game, too, if Oklahoma State loses to Oklahoma and Baylor beats Texas.

It probably doesn't matter where we're ranked relative to them at this point except for pride simply because the SEC can only have two teams in the BCS in any given year, and those spots will go to the winner of Auburn/Missouri and Alabama, for certain. Baylor remains #9 in the country, our highest ranking ever for this late in the season. We're not a player in the National Championship race, nor can I argue we should be, but it's entirely possible that we can snag an at-large bid for our first BCS bowl in program history. Let's hope. All Baylor can do at this point is beat Texas this coming Saturday in the final game in Floyd Casey Stadium history.

Michigan State

A Spartans win over Ohio State would send them to the Rose Bowl. Should the Buckeyes win, there's still a great chance MSU could be headed to the Rose anyway, due to rankings rules and the bowl's tie to Big Ten teams.

Northern Illinois

Jordan Lynch and the Huskies held steady at No. 14 in this week's standings. If they can beat Bowling Green on Friday night, they should be headed to a BCS bowl game, as Hustle Belt details.

Now all NIU has to worry about is beating Bowling Green on Friday and it should finish ahead of an automatic qualifying conference champion, meaning a one-way ticket to the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl. Currently the Huskies sit ahead of American Athletic Conference front-runner UCF which narrowly beat USF on Friday and sits at No. 16 in this week's BCS rankings, up three spots from a week ago.

If NIU can finish in the top 16 of the final BCS standings, which will be released next week, and ahead of an AQ champion such as UCF, the Huskies are guaranteed a trip to a BCS bowl. However, if UCF leapfrogs NIU in the BCS standings, NIU would need to be in the top 12 of the final BCS standings to earn a BCS-bid. Either way, a win against Bowling Green (9-3, 7-1 MAC) in Friday's MAC Championship will likely be enough to secure the Huskies a BCS Bowl-berth.

Week 13 impact

No. 1 Florida State vs. No. 20 Duke, 8 p.m. ET

The stakes are pretty clear in this one: if Jameis Winston and the Seminoles can continue their undefeated run on Saturday night, they'll play for the national title regardless of how they look. Duke has been a terrific story all season long, though they're they could be 30-point underdogs by kickoff. Should they somehow win, a trip to the Orange Bowl is booked.

No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Michigan State, 8:17 p.m.

Almost like Florida State, an Ohio State win will probably send them to the championship. Buckeye faithful will be holding their breaths until the final BCS standings are released, but as long as they don't lay a stinker against Michigan State, they should be alright. That being said, MSU is playing really well right now and has the ability to shut Braxton Miller and the Ohio State offense down. The Spartans are likely Rose-bound either way.

No. 3 Auburn vs. No. 5 Missouri, 4 p.m.

If FSU or OSU lose, the winner of this one will likely play for the national title. Both teams feature excellent run games, and James Franklin is playing as well as he ever has at quarterback for Mizzou. Get ready for a fun afternoon at the Georgia Dome.

No. 17 Oklahoma at No. 6 Oklahoma State, 12 p.m.

The Big 12 doesn't host a conference title game anymore, but this game will basically serve as half of one. If Oklahoma State wins, they'll earn the Big 12's automatic Fiesta bid. If they lose, the winner of Baylor-Texas will be headed to the BCS.

No. 7 Stanford at No. 11 Arizona State, 7:45 p.m.

In what will be a rematch of a game Stanford won 42-28 earlier this year, the winner of this one wins the Pac-12 and will be headed to the Rose Bowl. The Sun Devils will be at home this time around, and it'll be interesting to see how they handle Stanford's power running game after giving up 240 yards on the ground to them back in September.

Bowl projections, and what about that College Football Playoff?

For all the teams who won't be playing in a BCS bowl game this season (and those who will!), our full bowl game projections can be found here.

Like every week, Team Speed Kills has assembled what the College Football Playoff would look like if we got one this year. Here's a look at what would happen when the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl host the national semifinals.

Sugar Bowl Semifinal: Florida State vs. Alabama
Rose Bowl Semifinal: Ohio State vs. Auburn
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Missouri
Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Michigan State
Fiesta Bowl: Stanford vs. Baylor
Peach Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. South Carolina

The best part about this potential playoff: a rematch between Alabama and Auburn. The way Saturday's instant classic finished, quite a few folks would be interested in seeing the Tide and Tigers go at it for another 60 minutes. Just don't expect Nick Saban to try and kick many field goals.

More from SB Nation college football:

BEST. COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEKEND. EVER.

New bowl projections: FSU-Ohio State national title

College football news | No Chris Petersen for USC

Long CFB reads | The night Baylor died in Stillwater

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