NCAA Football 14 team ratings: Comparing EA's numbers to advanced stats rankings

Is Bama really a 99 across the board? - EA Sports

Team ratings for NCAA Football 14 are reportedly out. Let's put them side-by-side with Football Outsiders' numbers.

Tradition Sports Online collected team ratings from the build of NCAA Football 14 available for use at the E3 gaming expo. (You should pay special attention to TSO this time of year, as it's consistently one of the first places to find this info for both NCAA and Madden.) As is custom, teams are rated on a scale between 60 and 99 overall, offensively, and defensively.

As is also custom, onlookers had many complaints. Alabama is perfect, many BCS-conference teams and units appear to be quite overvalued, and some things are just ... interesting.

So let's compare the leaked NCAA ratings with the current version of this year's projected F/+ ratings by Football Outsiders. Though F/+ works on a scale that usually ends up ranging from something like -30 for the worst teams and +30 for the best teams, we can try and adapt it to the 60-99 scale. For a little more on F/+, here are last year's final numbers.

This isn't to try and prove anybody wrong (since even the best guesses are still just guesses) but to see the biggest differences.

Keep in mind the rankings reported by TSO aren't necessarily the final numbers, as the game won't be out for another few weeks. So we can always hope that, for one thing, West Virginia's defense won't be an 87.

Team F/+ EA Diff
1 Alabama 96 99 -3
2 Oregon 95 95 0
3 Stanford 94 91 3
4 LSU 94 93 1
5 Florida 93 90 3
6 Oklahoma State 93 91 2
7 Texas 93 93 0
8 Oklahoma 93 91 2
9 TCU 92 84 8
10 Ohio State 92 95 -3
11 Georgia 92 91 1
12 Boise State 91 86 5
13 Notre Dame 91 93 -2
14 South Carolina 91 90 1
15 Texas A&M 91 91 0
16 Michigan State 90 91 -1
17 Florida State 90 91 -1
18 Wisconsin 90 88 2
19 USC 90 91 -1
20 Oregon State 88 84 4
21 Clemson 88 93 -5
22 Nebraska 88 88 0
23 Virginia Tech 87 93 -6
24 Penn State 87 84 3
25 Cincinnati 87 81 6
26 Miami-FL 87 90 -3
27 Ole Miss 86 90 -4
28 Missouri 85 88 -3
29 Michigan 85 91 -6
30 Louisville 85 90 -5
31 North Carolina 85 91 -6
32 Georgia Tech 85 86 -1
33 Arizona 85 86 -1
34 BYU 84 83 1
35 Pittsburgh 84 77 7
36 Arizona State 84 84 0
37 Baylor 84 90 -6
38 West Virginia 83 84 -1
39 Northern Illinois 83 79 4
40 Rutgers 82 84 -2
41 Utah 82 86 -4
42 Iowa 82 88 -6
43 Northwestern 82 86 -4
44 UCLA 82 88 -6
45 Arkansas 82 88 -6
46 Texas Tech 82 86 -4
47 Tennessee 82 86 -6
48 Kansas State 82 86 -4
49 Utah State 81 75 6
50 Fresno State 81 81 0
51 Vanderbilt 81 83 -2
52 Washington 81 91 -10
53 UConn 80 81 -1
54 Auburn 80 88 -8
55 Mississippi State 80 88 -8
56 UCF 80 83 -3
57 Houston 80 84 -4
58 Syracuse 80 81 -1
59 Tulsa 79 79 0
60 San Diego State 78 84 -6
61 N.C. State 78 84 -6
62 Temple 78 81 -3
63 Toledo 78 81 -3
64 Arkansas State 78 77 1
65 Indiana 78 81 -3
66 Bowling Green 77 74 3
67 Virginia 77 84 -7
68 USF 77 84 -7
69 Boston College 77 86 -9
70 San Jose State 77 77 0
71 Nevada 77 75 2
72 California 76 84 -8
73 Minnesota 76 79 -3
74 Iowa State 76 81 -5
75 Ohio 76 79 -3
76 ECU 76 84 -8
77 Air Force 76 70 6
78 ULM 76 75 1
79 Louisiana Tech 76 74 2
80 Purdue 75 84 -9
81 Maryland 75 86 -11
82 Wake Forest 75 83 -8
83 Kentucky 75 84 -9
84 Marshall 75 74 1
85 Southern Miss 74 74 0
86 Kent State 74 74 0
87 Western Kentucky 74 75 -1
88 SMU 74 81 -7
89 Rice 74 75 -1
90 Navy 74 74 0
91 Ball State 74 79 -5
92 UL-Lafayette 74 77 -3
93 Duke 74 79 -5
94 Buffalo 73 79 -6
95 Western Michigan 73 72 1
96 Illinois 73 83 -10
97 Troy 73 75 -2
98 UAB 72 68 4
99 Central Michigan 72 72 0
100 MTSU 72 74 -2
101 FIU 71 79 -8
102 Hawaii 70 77 -7
103 North Texas 70 72 -2
104 Wyoming 70 75 -5
105 Washington State 69 81 -12
106 Colorado State 69 72 -3
107 UNLV 69 72 -3
108 Kansas 69 81 -12
109 Colorado 69 79 -10
110 Texas State 69 68 1
111 UTEP 69 75 -6
112 Army 69 72 -3
113 South Alabama 68 68 0
114 Miami-OH 68 72 -4
115 UTSA 68 68 0
116 Memphis 67 70 -3
117 FAU 67 75 -8
118 Eastern Michigan 67 65 2
119 Tulane 66 75 -9
120 Akron 65 63 2
121 New Mexico 64 65 -1
122 Idaho 63 63 0
123 New Mexico State 62 65 -3
124 Georgia State 61 60 1
125 UMass 60 61 -1

The only thing that bothers me about this stuff is the best current teams earning 99s out the gate. A 99 should be reserved for all-time great teams. Alabama's gonna be good this year, but is anybody predicting it to be as good as 1995 Nebraska? The floor at 60 makes more sense, since it leaves room for people to realistically simulate their own FCS or lower teams, so we'll keep that part. But 2013 Alabama shouldn't enter as a 99 -- besides just historical consistency, its F/+ projection is well below the final numbers produced by a couple other recent Alabama teams. I say all that to say Bama's getting nerfed, when I'm in charge.

As expected, several bad teams from BCS conferences are rated very differently by EA and by F/+. We know Colorado, Kansas, Illinois, and Washington State to have been awful last year and likely not much better this year, but each team is decent in the game.

The most significantly underrated team (if we accept F/+ as more authoritative than EA) is TCU, but we keep tryna tell y'all.

Also, the offensive and defensive breakdowns, using the same systems:

Team Off F/+ Off EA Off Diff Def F/+ Def EA Def Diff
Air Force 78 68 10 76 71 5
Akron 69 61 8 68 65 3
Alabama 96 99 -3 98 99 -1
Arizona 87 86 1 82 88 -6
Arizona State 82 86 -4 86 83 3
Arkansas 82 88 -6 82 87 -5
Arkansas State 81 79 2 75 76 -1
Army 76 72 4 69 73 -4
Auburn 79 88 -9 82 90 -8
Ball State 78 86 -8 73 73 0
Baylor 89 90 -1 78 88 -10
Boise State 87 90 -3 91 82 9
Boston College 77 86 -9 79 85 -6
Bowling Green 75 75 0 82 75 7
Buffalo 73 81 -8 77 78 -1
BYU 82 84 -2 87 83 4
California 76 86 -10 79 83 -6
Central Michigan 76 72 4 73 71 2
Cincinnati 86 81 5 86 83 3
Clemson 90 95 -5 83 90 -7
Colorado 73 81 -8 70 78 -8
Colorado State 70 74 -4 73 73 0
Duke 80 79 1 72 78 -6
Eastern Michigan 71 68 3 70 65 5
ECU 78 86 -8 77 83 -6
FAU 69 77 -8 71 76 -5
FIU 71 77 -6 75 80 -5
Florida 86 90 -4 95 92 3
Florida State 86 93 -7 90 92 -2
Fresno State 78 84 -6 84 78 6
Georgia 95 95 0 85 88 -3
Georgia State 66 60 6 66 60 6
Georgia Tech 86 83 3 82 88 -6
Hawaii 69 77 -8 76 76 0
Houston 81 86 -5 80 83 -3
Idaho 67 67 0 67 61 6
Illinois 75 86 -11 76 80 -4
Indiana 83 83 0 74 82 -8
Iowa 80 88 -8 84 90 -6
Iowa State 77 81 -4 77 83 -6
Kansas 72 84 -12 71 78 -7
Kansas State 85 91 -6 79 83 -4
Kent State 75 75 0 76 75 1
Kentucky 77 84 -7 75 83 -8
Louisiana Tech 81 75 6 73 73 0
Louisville 86 93 -7 83 88 -5
LSU 89 93 -4 94 92 2
Marshall 82 77 5 71 73 -2
Maryland 73 86 -7 80 85 -5
Memphis 69 72 -3 72 70 2
Miami-FL 89 91 -2 82 88 -6
Miami-OH 73 74 -1 69 71 -2
Michigan 85 91 -6 84 92 -8
Michigan State 83 90 -7 94 93 1
Minnesota 77 79 -2 78 80 -2
Mississippi State 80 90 -10 81 85 -4
Missouri 82 90 -8 86 87 -1
MTSU 75 75 0 73 75 -2
N.C. State 77 84 -7 81 85 -4
Navy 77 74 3 74 75 -1
Nebraska 91 91 0 82 85 -3
Nevada 83 77 6 73 73 0
New Mexico 71 67 4 64 66 -2
New Mexico State 68 68 0 66 65 1
North Carolina 86 91 -5 83 90 -7
North Texas 73 72 1 72 75 -3
Northern Illinois 85 83 2 80 78 2
Northwestern 83 86 -3 82 87 -5
Notre Dame 87 93 -6 91 93 -2
Ohio 77 83 -6 77 76 1
Ohio State 93 97 -4 87 92 -5
Oklahoma 93 97 -4 87 88 -1
Oklahoma State 90 93 -3 90 92 -2
Ole Miss 85 91 -6 86 88 -2
Oregon 93 99 -6 96 92 4
Oregon State 86 86 0 86 83 3
Penn State 83 86 -3 88 85 3
Pittsburgh 82 77 5 87 80 7
Purdue 74 84 -10 80 85 -5
Rice 76 75 1 75 76 -1
Rutgers 78 86 -8 86 82 4
San Diego State 76 84 -8 82 83 -1
San Jose State 79 81 -2 77 76 1
SMU 76 83 -7 75 78 -3
South Alabama 68 67 1 74 70 4
South Carolina 87 88 -1 91 90 1
Southern Miss 72 72 0 78 75 3
Stanford 88 91 -3 94 93 1
Syracuse 82 83 -1 80 80 0
TCU 84 86 -2 96 85 11
Temple 80 81 -1 77 82 -5
Tennessee 83 84 -1 80 88 -8
Texas 91 95 -4 89 93 -4
Texas A&M 92 95 -3 85 88 -3
Texas State 73 67 -6 70 70 0
Texas Tech 83 90 -7 81 83 -2
Toledo 81 84 -3 76 78 -2
Troy 77 75 2 73 75 -2
Tulane 70 77 -7 70 68 2
Tulsa 80 84 -4 79 75 4
UAB 74 68 8 73 68 5
UCF 81 86 -5 80 82 -2
UCLA 82 88 -6 82 87 -5
UConn 77 84 -7 84 80 4
UL-Lafayette 79 81 -2 73 75 -2
ULM 79 79 0 75 75 0
UMass 63 61 2 66 65 1
UNLV 72 75 -3 72 70 2
USC 88 95 -7 88 90 -2
USF 77 81 -2 79 87 -8
Utah 79 84 -5 84 87 -3
Utah State 77 77 0 85 75 10
UTEP 73 77 -4 70 73 -3
UTSA 73 68 5 68 70 -2
Vanderbilt 79 84 -5 83 82 1
Virginia 76 86 -10 80 83 -3
Virginia Tech 79 91 -12 93 95 -2
Wake Forest 75 83 -8 79 85 -6
Washington 81 91 -10 82 90 -8
Washington State 70 83 -13 74 80 -6
West Virginia 84 83 1 81 87 -6
Western Kentucky 75 72 3 76 78 -2
Western Michigan 74 74 0 76 71 5
Wisconsin 87 88 -1 89 88 1
Wyoming 75 77 -2 70 75 -5

What do we think here?

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