Simulated 2013 BCS standings, Week 4: Here comes Ohio State

Thearon W. Henderson

Official BCS rankings won't be released for another few weeks, but putting together the formula's components on our own tell us the Buckeyes are in good shape for now.

With Johnny Manziel making all the news early and the Pac-12's incompetent refs grabbing the headlines late, a little something else out West kind of went unnoticed. Urban Meyer is plotting a long-awaited rematch with Nick Saban.

We mentioned yesterday that Alabama has a pretty smooth path to the BCS title game after surviving Manziel and Texas A&M on Saturday. But that's nothing compared to Ohio State's red carpet treatment.

After demolishing Cal in Ohio Stadium at Strawberry Canyon with backup QB Kenny Guiton, the Buckeyes are ready to dig into the Big Ten. And judging by how things went for the B1G on Saturday, it looks like the Buckeyes will dominate the conference again.

Ohio State ascended to No. 3 in the latest simulated BCS standings, behind Alabama and Oregon.

Rank Previous Team Coaches % AP % Md* CM JS KM RB CPU Avg. BCS
1 2 Alabama 1 0.9994 1 0.9993 1 3 2 6 1 0.92 0.9729
2 1 Oregon 2 0.9529 2 0.942 2 4 1 1 2 0.95 0.9483
3 7 Ohio State 3 0.9019 4 0.8867 9 13 17 7 5 0.58 0.7895
4 3 Stanford 5 0.8477 5 0.8273 11 20 11 2 3 0.59 0.755
5 4 Clemson 4 0.8587 3 0.898 5 25 13 12 6 0.48 0.7456
6 5 LSU 7 0.7232 6 0.756 4 14 8 4 7 0.71 0.7297
7 12 Florida State 8 0.7181 8 0.7053 3 15 4 9 14 0.62 0.6811
8 8 Louisville 6 0.7277 7 0.728 17 8 20 13 10 0.44 0.6319
9 13 Oklahoma 12 0.5413 14 0.4613 7 2 9 3 4 0.81 0.6042
10 10 Georgia 10 0.6594 9 0.7007 8 6 21 8 0.41 0.59
11 9 Oklahoma State 11 0.5858 11 0.5653 10 11 5 5 19 0.59 0.5804
12 6 Texas A&M 9 0.6665 10 0.6673 6 7 11 0.34 0.5579
13 17 UCLA 15 0.451 13 0.5047 12 10 10 15 20 0.47 0.4752
14 14 South Carolina 13 0.5232 12 0.5473 14 12 25 9 0.27 0.4469
15 11 Michigan 14 0.4794 15 0.448 18 6 23 12 0.25 0.3925
16 16 Miami (Fla.) 17 0.3606 16 0.4273 20 17 19 22 23 0.2 0.3293
17 15 Northwestern 16 0.3755 18 0.3247 19 19 11 16 0.24 0.3134
18 23 Washington 20 0.2329 17 0.3307 16 5 23 14 24 0.27 0.2779
19 21 Baylor 19 0.2419 20 0.2367 13 3 10 22 0.33 0.2695
20 20 Florida 18 0.2568 19 0.2747 21 14 25 0.06 0.1971
21 26 Ole Miss 22 0.1955 21 0.2 22 24 22 20 0.1 0.1652
22 19 Notre Dame 21 0.2135 22 0.1847 17 13 0.09 0.1627
23 28 Arizona State 23 0.1135 23 0.1527 15 23 21 19 0.15 0.1387
24 36 Arizona 32 0.0187 32 0.0073 23 16 16 16 0.23 0.0853
25 29 Texas Tech 28 0.0316 25 0.04 12 24 18 21 0.15 0.0739
26 40 Georgia Tech 29 0.0239 30 0.0113 24 15 8 0.13 0.0551
27 31 Michigan State 24 0.0845 26 0.0393 24 0 0.0413
28 45 Central Florida 31 0.0213 28 0.0167 7 18 0.08 0.0393
29 18 Wisconsin 27 0.0342 24 0.058 25 18 0.01 0.0341
30 33 Fresno State 25 0.0484 27 0.018 18 0 0.0221
31 22 Nebraska 26 0.0355 31 0.01 0 0.0152
32 37 Northern Illinois 33 0.0168 29 0.016 15 0 0.0109
33 42 Arkansas 30 0.0219 37 0.0013 21 0 0.0078
34 27 Auburn 34 0.0097 33 0.006 1 0 0.0052
35 39 Virginia Tech 35 0.0058 35 0.002 0 0.0026
36 47 Boise State 39 0.0032 34 0.0027 0 0.002
37 38 BYU 36 0.0052 0 0 0.0017
38 48 USC 37 0.0045 0 0 0.0015
39 41 Kansas State 38 0.0039 0 0 0.0013
40 49 Utah State 39 0.0032 0 0 0.0011
41 24 TCU 0 35 0.002 25 0 0.0007
42 51 Rutgers 41 0.0013 0 0 0.0004
43 NR Navy 0 38 0.0007 9 0 0.0002
44 55 San Jose State 0 0 17 0 0
45 52 Colorado 0 0 22 0 0

Keys: Md = Median ranking of 31 computer ratings; CM = Colley Matrix; JS = Jeff Sagarin; KM = Kenneth Massey; RB = Richard Billingsley; CPU Avg. = Computer Average.

Explanation: This rankings method is a simulation of the actual BCS standings with the following variations: 1) The AP Poll is used in place of the Harris Interactive Poll, which is not published until after the first weekend of October; 2) Four of the six BCS computer ratings are available - Colley Matrix, Jeff Sagarin, Kenneth Massey and Richard Billingsley; 3) The other two computer ratings - Anderson & Hester and Peter Wolfe - will not be available until late-September or October, so they're replaced by the median ranking of 31 computer ratings.

^ Penn State is ineligible for inclusion in official BCS standings.

The Buckeyes now are in the on-deck circle, but they'd probably need more than a loss by either team to get into the BCS title game. They're likely to get leapfrogged by Stanford if the Cardinal defeat the Ducks to win the Pac-12 North, and they will also get jumped by LSU if the Tigers upset the Tide.

Still, finishing undefeated this season will yield considerable rewards for the Buckeyes, no matter what happens anywhere else. For now, all Ohio State can do is run roughshod over the Big Ten and keep Meyer unbeaten (15-0 and counting). To be sure, Meyer is eager for another shot at Saban, and this time, it'd be for something bigger than the SEC championship (as hard as that is to believe).

Week 4's BCS impact games

Rankings in simulated BCS standings.

No. 23 Arizona State at No. 4 Stanford (7 p.m. ET, FOX): Yes, we have mentioned that September scheduling in the BCS era is a wasteland, and this is the game of the week simply because it's the only game matching up top 25 teams (and barely at that). Todd Graham got away with very poor late-game management against Wisconsin thanks to the Pac-12's even more incompetent officials. He won't be so lucky on the Farm.

Auburn at No. 6 LSU (7:45 p.m., ESPN): The top-ranked Tigers -- Auburn, that is, according to the Colley Matrix -- are a surprising 3-0 after rallying past Mississippi State last week. But they're not quite ready to challenge the Bayou Bengals, who have their eye on the No. 1 rankings that really matters.

Boise State at Fresno State (9 p.m. Friday, ESPN): The catastrophic flooding in Colorado forced the postponement of Fresno State's game in Boulder last week, and now the Bulldogs will be playing perhaps the biggest game in program history with nearly two weeks off. A win here may very well position Fresno State for a run at a BCS at-large berth. The Broncos are finding themselves in the unfamiliar position of playing the spoiler.

Kansas State at Texas (8 p.m., ABC): Mack Brown says his team can still win the Big 12. We might need only one game to find out. Defending Big 12 co-champ K-State is trying to claw out of the embarrassment of losing to FCS North Dakota State in the season opener, and it won't be in the mood to take it easy on the Longhorns.

No. 5 Clemson at NC State (7:30 p.m. Thursday, ESPN): A year ago, Florida State blew whatever slim BCS chances it had by losing early at NC State. Will it happen to Clemson? Those Thursday night games can produce some very strange outcomes.

More from SB Nation:

All our coverage from Week 3’s Saturday

Trying to explain that insane Wisconsin-Arizona State ending

Can anyone beat Alabama?

Spencer Hall’s top 25 review

Would coaches rather replace Mack Brown or Lane Kiffin?

Today’s college football news headlines

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