After a solid first week, an awful second week, and a great third week, I sat at 26-22 (54.2 percent, +$258). Week 4 did not go as well, and it was frustrating as hell. I'm now 36-34 (51.4 percent, -$37). Why was it frustrating? I believe I had the correct side on seven of my 12 losses (five of the 12 were clearly bad wagers). And none of my wins were lucky (favorites won in huge fashion, underdogs won outright or came close to doing so).
For example, LSU, favored over Auburn by 17, thrice led by 21, but allowed a late touchdown to win by only 14. Florida, also favored by 17 over an awful Tennessee team, lost its quarterback in the first quarter, and still dominated the game and almost covered, but a Tennessee touchdown in the fourth quarter prevented that.
But on to the Week 5 wagers.
As usual, I'll offer my thoughts on the games involving top-25 teams. If you have questions about other games, even if I did not wager on them, be sure to ask in the comments section.
I am impressed with the direction of the Ole Miss Rebels as a program, but I think this team might be overrated. Ole Miss has some issues in its secondary, and I don't trust Bo Wallace to protect the football. Alabama's offense can really put up points this year, and I expect it to do so Saturday.
Oregon may have been the most impressive team in the country so far this year, but 37.5 points, the line found at Sportsbook.com, seems too much. If Cal can get to 24 points, Oregon will need 62 to cover this number, which is a ton of points. The backdoor could be wide open here for Cal.
Clemson's offense is still very explosive, but it might not be as consistent as it was a year ago. Wake isn't any good, but this is a very big number.
I really like Ohio State's offense and Wisconsin's run game. I do not like Wisconsin's secondary. Expect Wisconsin to hit some big runs, but for Ohio State to make more plays in an exciting shootout.
Stanford is coming off a big win over Arizona State, is without its best offensive lineman, and this looks like a trap game, thus my pick of Washington State and 10.5 points. I would like this a lot better had the Cougars not defeated USC. If that were the case, this line might be 14.
LSU and Georgia have offenses that are considerably better than their defenses. As Bill Connelly profiled, expect a shootout.
I would bet UCF had they not defeated Penn State. That win sucked the value out of the Knights in my opinion. But I expect this one to be a shootout, as South Carolina can definitely score, and thus am on the over.
West Virginia's offense is awful, but its defense is not quite to bad. I expect a low scoring game, by Oklahoma State and West Virginia standards of yesteryear.
The USF game represents the first real opportunity to bet against the inflated value Miami is being given after defeating Florida on the strength of a million turnovers.